Hurricane Harbor: Miami in the Cone at 5 PM Erika. Questions on Strength & Intensity Down the Line. Katrina Before FL...

5PM

Erika Cone:

Close up Visible

On one hand you can see her banding features.

Them there's dust in those bands...

Center is vaguely exposed.

Not sure it's not tilted

Could use better alignment vertically.

Looks better than earlier today.

Watch the loop below to see the battle Erika has doing w SAL

Dry air more than shear here... tho its a factor.

Note the convection keeps pushing away from the center.

The wide view shows how far away Erika is...

..and where the remains of Danny are...

Yeah...how bout that.

Up close peek of Ex-Danny

Hmmnnn.

Going back to Erika...

Discussion from NHC

Note they pulled the track to the South ..

..based on it being a weaker system.. maybe.

She is looking better.

Evacuating energy.

Pumping.

Flaring up.

Not bad.

Looked worse this AM.

Visible Loop

Can really see her bones.

Strong convection still misplaced to the South.

Banding, spinning in a sea of dust.

West bound fast

Still looks bottom heavy to me.

Riding low in the water.

You'd be struggling too if you had to push into that dry air...

Important to look at water temperatures in it's path.

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/satl_tmap.html

Good link to hold onto.

Shows water temps in her projected path.

That's hot water.

IF Erika gets into those waters.

Crown Weather explains this in their discussion.

www.crownweather.com

"very favorable environment is that a piece of a trough of low pressure

will back southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico putting Erika

in a favorable quadrant for intensification."

He also explains that she could continue up along the FL Coast.

So much comes down to her intensity in a day or two.

It's not totally about how she looks now.

So stay tuned...

Stay informed!

I WANT TO SAY THIS NOW

ITS IMPORTANT

Should Erika strengthen over the next 2 days.

They will most likely pull the cone to the right again.

They are going with this scenario based on current presentation.

IF it gets to the warmer water and slows down.

It could explode .. I said could.

The cone would change.

I went on Facebook for a minute.

There was a message for me waiting.

"Hey, what's the deal with ERICA?

R we gonna get hit?"

So as I told the closer family friend....

The cone changes every 6 hours.

Check it and see what changes they have made

5/11/5/11

That's when the cone changes!

Actually every time I go on Facebook...

one of the many kids who hung out at our house with my kids..

...is waiting for me.

Back to watching EriKA

Watching the Orange Juice Loop...

Note size of Erika

Note remains of Danny just connected with Erika

System behind him..

Pouch program monitors waves.

1 (Danny remnants now a wave)

2 ERIKA

3 New Wave off of Africa

4 Wave OVER Africa

Cape Verde Waves just beat by El Nino.

Where's Godzilla when you need him?

So where is Erika going?

Big question of the week

Models

Note many of them show it curving away from FL..

Then again some models go through the Keys and curve in E GOM

GFS latest ensemble.

Note this graphic.

Check this graphic often on www.spaghettimodels.com

This 5 Day would imply Miami and the FL Keys aren't getting Erika.

Well, more like whispering it in a rainstorm.

Jim Williams did put Key West on his top city lists...

Cape Coral was #1

Bahamas on his short list...

www.hurricanecity.com

Next I want to show a Hurricane Map.

Canada also has a Hurricane Center....

Remember hurricanes often end up ...up there..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-animated.gif

Bottom Line:

She is pretty from far away but from up close on visible she is not aligned properly. Sometimes systems that are not properly aligned ...tilt...and fall over when dealing with shear. Yes she is bigger than Danny, but Danny had a tighter circulation center.

Not sure if I am more worried about Erika or my Miami... or the Florida Keys.

She is bottom heavy. The Northern circulation is having problems wrapping as it's bands are filled with dust and weighed down by dry air. Recon is feeling around and trying to get a good idea of how strong the SAL is and how dry the air is ...in her path. There should be a lot more information in the next model run tonight.

If you are in Miami or any part of South Florida know this... it's the Hurricane Season. I hope you didn't buy that media press and sound bites about El Nino killing off the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Erika could get into the Gulf tream and explode, much the way Katrina did before she swirled her way across South Florida ...well developed eye and all.