Is the GFDL Playing Fantasy Football? Danny and the Models...Fighting Shear. Needs Fire Water 4 Areas Watched. 3 Invests.

Lots going on tonight.

Multiple Invests.

Note on the right the orange red grid.

Danny gets closer to warm water.

Can he make it there intact?

4 areas the NHC is watching.

I'll talk about the area over Africa...

...when it's off of Africa.

The Cape Verde Wave at midnight has a 60% chance.

I want to start off with this link that always has awesome information much deeper than any sound bite you will hear on your local weather or TWC (unless Norcross is on) and well worth checking it out on a regular basis.

https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2015/08/22/doppler-radar-quick-looks-from-200-pm-p-3-and-g-iv-flights-into-hurricane-danny-21-august-2015/#comments

It explains and illustrates how the Doppler Radar from the flights into Danny work.

Not such a difficult idea .. just one that's time finally came.

Speaking of time coming...

People keep asking me "Is Danny going to make it??"

He doesn't look that well.

Then again he's still there.

Still in the game.

Note the little lifeline the shear is oddly sending him.

You can see him flare up just a drop

See the moisture fly at him thru the dry air.

I outlined it in yellow.

From near the coast of South America

Big Spinning Low in Atlantic.

Is he dead yet?

Reminds me of the that character Kid Sheelen

Everyone wondering if South Florida will get a hurricane...

And... a tropical low or depression rolls into the Bahamas.

Maybe even just a rain shower.

But.... if he lies there in Jane Fonda's 1960s lap long enough.

And, has enough warm tropical moisture.. coconut rum.

Perhaps he can come back.. 

Small storms are very hard to predict.

Again the models have a problem seeing them even.

So keep watching.

Let's look at the models.

I know a bunch of you like Fantasy Football.

In Tropical Meteorology we have something like that.

It's called the CMC model.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2015082212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Canadian Model has Danny winning an Oscar.

Best Come Back to Life Scene 

Develops 2 more storms behind him...

Okay.... let's move on....

GFS

Has Danny "there" and then he goes poof.

Hard to understand as shear is not strong "there"

And, water temps "there" are warmer going on HOT.

Also develops storm behind him.. kind of..

You can see moisture across Florida

Yeah.. fronts in August...

EURO

Next we come to the GFDL

Once a very respectable model

I like it. It's been the most stubborn model.

Hasn't flip flopped. 

Doesn't mean it's right.

But, it holds out the possibility that he doesn't die..

The GFDL does weaken Danny.

It keeps him away from Hispanoila.

Takes him up and over PR.

ALMOST loses him there 

Then...intensifies him over warmer water.

Moves him up the East Coast..

Off shore from Florida.

IF Danny does take that track.

It's a believable scenario.

Lastly we have the NHC track.

The NHC continues on with their original game plan.

He could go North of PR. 

Or South.

Or directly over PR.

And, keeps on going.

They have him as a TD in the Bahamas.

I'm sure they feel they are being very generous.

I have a problem with this.

If they lost him a day before... okay.

But, if he still has a heart beat.

And, all he needs is a little fire water...

Why would he not come back?

An Upper Level Low may form over or around Cuba.

That could be a game changer and I say "could" here.

Watching the Water Vapor Loop carefully.

Will update my thoughts tomorrow.

I do find it strange that he pushes into the dry air..

The dry air moves away a drop.

He keeps taking a bit hit from the dry air and shear.

Notice he looked poorly, then popped back.

Mind you by tomorrow he most likely will look poorly again.

Discussion from the NHC is above regarding track and models.

Note I put the 3 yellow dots...

...cause I'm very iffy on the Hispaniola track.

Bastardi weighed in on the GFDL

Had an old boyfriend who always said "never say never"

"improbable maybe but never say never"

He's stubborn. He finally got what he wanted.

Lost many times, then won.

Not sure Danny will be so lucky.

Not probable, not impossible.

Many Cubans have made it to South Florida's shore..

...in tires, big rubber tires.

Seems things are so good there ....

....they are bored and looking for adventure...

Some survive, many die at sea or eaten by sharks.

Not impossible, but not a sure thing.

Will Danny wash up on Miami's shore like some exhausted Balseros?

Let's move on tonight to other Invests.

In the Atlantic off the Outer Banks aka OBX

Not there yet... 

Out in the Atlantic a new wave rolled off of Africa

Looks a bit like My Favorite Martian tonight.

NHC gives it high grades.

60% on a late Saturday Night!

I'll update later today.

For now we just watch Danny.

That's the game plan.

The ball is in his hands.

Would be nice if he had someone to throw to...

A little protection from the shear and dry air.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

Bobbistorm

Ps. Perhaps Danny needs some Sangria?