Invest 96L Struggles - Forecast to Intensify. Now's a Good Time to Check Your Hurricane Supplies

The problem with Invest 96L and I will say that this morning it definitely is just an Invest is that the longer it takes to develop the more of a problem it is for the SE Coast. Actually, add in Mid-Atlantic and other places need to keep their eye on it. Had it continued doing what it was doing yesterday it would have been Cristobal by now and on it's way towards recurvature. Only place that would have had to worry on it would have been Bermuda and even that was a maybe.

And, the NHC has been calling for slow development and edging their "area of possible development" further to the West each day. Currently there is high confidence that it SHOULD take a turn up into the Bahamas rather than say heading for the Florida Straits. Nothing is for certain with this system. The only certainty is uncertainty and that is never good when a system keeps heading closer and closer to land.

Every wave before it rolled up into the Florida Straits and I don't see much reason to believe that IF this doesn't pull it together that it won't continue that popular track of 2014. BUT, the NHC has high confidence that it WILL form at some point down the line and make that turn. I'm hoping they are right, because the LAST place I want any system to form is over the Gulfstream stalled off of South Florida. They usually go two ways there... towards Florida while intensifying or up the Gulfstream towards a landfall on a beach in North Carolina as Hurricane Arthur did when it took the left side of the cone and smashed into Cape Lookout, North Carolina. 

Sometimes though you have a system that travels across the ocean and carries with it the whole time two or three multiple centers. Those systems, like this one, are often large waves and large waves take longer to pull together for numerous reasons....one of those reasons being multiple area of low pressure and strong convection. Think of a llama push me - pull me toy or the scene in Dr. Doolittle. 

For the parents or any child care giver reading this blog let's put it this way. Say you have a 2 year old and an infant and you live in an apartment with stairs. In order to get up the stairs you have to either park the baby in the stroller at the bottom of the stairs and carry the 2 year old up the stairs and then begging him "not to move" run back downstairs to get the baby and the stroller. Or you could leave the stroller, walk up slowly with the 2 year old holding his hand while carrying the baby at the same time leaving the stroller for later.  Either way it's not an easy process and trust me I have been there..  Invest 96L has a two or three parts and the one that the NHC has been tracking is not the 2 year old out ahead screaming "LOOK AT ME" it's quietly back in the cat seat waiting to take over and have it's day in the sun over the warm Gulfstream waters.

Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 is a storm that many have compared this Invest to as a possible comparison for a stalling, looping track in the Bahamas with a possible knock out punch to South Florida. This is not 2004 and the set up is different and Cristobal is just as likely to loop out to sea or up the coast towards the Carolinas but there are commonalities.

It's just an example. Not a track or a forecast but a lesson in how quirky storms can be in years when the steering currents are not set in stone.

Now let's look at Invest 96L that is forecast to become Cristobal when it gets itself together, puts the baby to bed and leaves the 2 year old with the Lego and gets the stroller back upstairs.

The red circle with the line through it is NOT THE CENTER. The area closer to the blue circle in the middle that is partly devoid of convection IS THE CENTER. At times the tail, or what will be the tail, flares up and pressures drop and it looks like there is a center there too. But..the one that the NHC is tracking and hopefully the one that the models are picking up on is the one in the middle. 

Concerns me that if the 2 merge it is suddenly closer to the SE and the models will come out with more scary looking landfalls making everyone in Miami nuts...before the next run of models that show something else. 

Just too many variables right now. Too many intangibles too close to my neck of the woods. When you can see the Turks in the floater ....it's getting closer to South Florida. It's not like watching a great Cape Verde wave far out in the middle of the ocean.

You can watch this ballet on the Funktop for yourself. Check back and forth. If you see greens forming and dark reds maintaining then something is brewing and it's name is Cristobal.

Note currently the dark reds are not directly over the center. It's a mess. It's so so close to coming together and every time it looks like it will it throws a temper tantrum and gets sent to it's room. Another day... another good loop before it goes poof. Another day ...another model ...another set of possible tracks.

So....................going to take this time as we are going into the weekend to tell you to make a list, check it twice and make sure you have your hurricane supplies and plans in order. This is one of the last weekends of August... summer is almost over and we move into Prime Time in the Caribbean for Hurricanes!!

Remember September. Let the camera shy Cristobal be a good wake up call to go out and update your hurricane supplies and to make a good list of what to do if Cristobal comes knocking at your door...or maybe Dolly.

One of the best things I read yesterday online was not discussion from the NHC but a tweet from the Director of the NHC. Dr. Rick Knabb is so right...so on the money. Now is the time to prepare.. not worry on which model has the best handle on this system. It's the job of the NHC to figure that out for you and it's your job to prepare your family and your home ...even if you live alone for a hurricane. IF you live in Hurricane Country ... you will one day get a hurricane. It is inevitable. And note that's good advice anytime you travel. I always take an extra pair of glasses with me ... just in case. Extra cash on hand (ATMS lose power), meds, make a list... it's more than just about stocking up on water at Publix.

And if you live further inland outside the red outlined area... you may have inland flooding from a hurricane. Just do it! Prepare just in case this one or the next one or the one after that comes to blow your house down... be prepared!

I'll be back later to talk more on Invest 93L that is forecast to intensify at some point. Personally I wish it would do so sooner rather than later as every day it stays weak it works its way further west. If and when it develops odds are that a trough will pick it up and take it out to sea. But, sometimes a Hurricane like Arthur takes the left side of that cone and does make landfall.

Be prepared always!

http://www.publix.com/storm/

Lastly, please note the discussion from the NHC regarding the state of Invest 96L this morning and it's future.

" However, environmental conditions are expected to

be more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or

over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday, and a tropical depression

or tropical storm is likely to form over the weekend or by early

next week. "

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Besos Bobbi

Ps... keep the large view in mind when watching the tropics. Floaters are nice, but a larger view shows you the whole picture. Note yesterday it did look like a depression and then it fell apart. Good call by the NHC ... another good call is to worry more on if your hurricane supplies are ready for a hurricane not what the EURO thinks vs the GFS.