Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Rocky... A MASSIVE STORM



Hard to believe that my son is getting snow in Iowa from the same system that is dumping rain on me in Raleigh as a severe line of thunderstorms go by.

Barometer 29.57 and Falling.....................

Doesn't thunder in winter mean snow on the way??

That's one massive storm...

Back from my vacation... will post more later...

This storm continues to bear watching and another storm is waiting in the wings...

More later...

Besos Bobbi

PS...

Florida was fine... but was it as fine as Carolina lol...

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

On the Road Again...



Nothing like seeing a Publix truck to cheer up a Florida Girl after a long while up north. Okay they do have Publix in Georgia ... but you really know you are across the state line when you see the trucks everywhere.

Everyone always forgets how far north Jacksonville Florida is in the South. It's very southern... but it's barely Florida. Always feel more like Georgia to me...    South Savannah... sort of... and then you hit Daytona... south of St. Augustine and you are moving into the real Florida.

Dedicating this morning's weather to the Daytona 500 and linking to Mike's Race Day Forecast... cause their ain't no Hurricanes in Florida this week...



http://www.racedayforecast.com/

Daytona... "The Great American Race"



http://www.daytonainternationalspeedway.com/Tickets-Events/Events/2013/Daytona-500/DAYTONA-500.aspx

Love it really....

On a race day...on any day... Daytona is mind blowing!  Better than Disney I think..





Traveling can be mind blowing sometimes...

There was snow on the road side in Columbia South Carolina... Seemed strange. Strange year.

As for Jax... cold, but warming up but we will be gone soon... on the road further south.

My husband has business... we have family business... Jewish Holiday of Purim... Purim in Miami with my best friends..  Shopping for food for Passover which is not easy to do in Raleigh. Miami Time..

Anyway or  either way it was cold last night.  Winter has reached it's icy grip all the way down into Florida.... down all the way to Miami. My brother told me his dog couldn't decide whether he wanted to stay inside in the warm or go walk on the windy canal with my brother who was wearing some sort of parka as if it's 20 degrees. But... it's all relative.  The dog chose the walk, but he kept shaking himself as if he was freezing.

Got to love the year 2013... face chat, video chat, IM chat... every kind of chat including the old fashioned telephone. On the road south bound while my kids were ahead of us in a rush checking in with their locations and GPS addresses. Spoke to my son in Iowa half asleep and smiling. Texting with my stepdaughter in Arizona... Lord is there any way to really take a "VACATION" anymore? I shouldn't complain.. I love knowing what my kids are listening on that stupid music station that emails me constantly.

Oscars coming up... memories of me being in LA back when Oscar Weekend... thank you ..you know who to that beautiful memory :)





Boat Show in Miami... ..



Always something this time of year...

Spent part of the day in Savannah yesterday, I do so love Savannah. There's a Publix and a nice Starbucks and a great place to watch the sun set. Give me some hanging moss and I am good. I grew up in Miami when we actually had hanging moss all over Coral Gables. I think the last of it blew away in Hurricane Andrew and very little of it grew back. It's a sweet memory though...

Race cars ride by in flatbeds on the way to Daytona. Traveling south on I-95 in February is always a trip... most mentally and physically.

The weather is behind us... tropical storms are months ahead of us...

There's no place like home... I'm taking a shower and going to Whole Foods :)

Besos Bobbi

Really nice hotel....really slow connection... not awake enough to connect the computer to my phone... need a shower..

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Snowy Saturday In Raleigh NC.. GFS Model Nailed It!


This is how my back yard looked this morning... give or take.  I couldn't take a pic, cause it was Shabbos and that's my day of rest... of course, this morning it was a white, beautiful, snowy day of rest where I sat by the window and stared for hours at the snow come down. Bill from Severe Weather Eastern North Carolina Facebook Group posted that pic..

Last time it snowed up here the snow was falling... I stopped to load the dishwasher and it turned over to rain and no more snow. Not falling for THAT this time. But, this time the GFS delivered... had the ground been frozen and not as warm as it was... we would easily have had 4 to 6 inches. I had close to 2 inches before it began to melt... a little rain mixed with the snow immediately puts a dent in the snow totals. Shame.. but beautiful. Big, fat, flakes... some over 2 inches fluttering to the ground like white butterflies...covering the table on the deck.  Which looked a lot like this picture except I have more woods behind my yard. Is this picture beautiful or what? Robin from the same group posted it online.


Radar Currently looks like this:



What I love about this snow fall is that the GFS called it...they nailed it and no one believed so they took the possible six inches falling and averaged with the other models that showed 1.2.

It's a mathematical solution, accumulation is between 1 and 3... but more fell... and melted. And, now we have rain mixed with snow ...which is odd as this morning we were in the upper 30s and had snow.. go figure. Temperature going down to 25 means everything melting in the rainy-snow mix will freeze.

Brad    posted this the other day... didn't snow as far south, but it was on the money with the Piedmont snow fall.  He does a good job watching the possibilities.


This is what I posted the other day... it verified....





Model for later this weekend in New England... I'd pay close attention...
Reed Timmer posted this on Twitter...
https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/302844924221616128/photo/1/large


So...that's it :) 

Gonna go sit by the window and stare up at it... 

I chase tropical weather... it's cold out there..

But, in the AM I'll see if there is a snowy sunrise and put on my boots and gloves
and then pack my thin skirts and tee shirts for Florida :)

I knew it would snow before I left... just knew it!

Happened last year... happened this year..

Love it!

It's not a Category 3 Hurricane swirling around in the ocean .. but it's weather and it's mine!

Besos Bobbi





Friday, February 15, 2013

Asteroid & Meteorite Today...Snow Tomorrow...


Click on the image above ... it's an image of the asteroid flying by at it's closest approach to our planet. I think... we think.  We are learning in real time as we discuss learning about spin times and how often an asteroid of this size and trajectory turns while it's speeding by this close to Earth.

Why is this important? Other than we have survived...

CNN and FOX left the story as soon as survived..by the way... but considering a 10 ton meteorite or fragment of an asteroid (we aren't sure...) exploded..crashed in Russia and over 1,100 people were injured.  That number is climbing by the way and majority of the destruction was from the explosion when it broke the sound barrier.. a massive blinding light and explosion that sounded like the end of the world. You have to think those witnessing it must have thought it was THE ASTEROID.. or something more bizarre depending on their own fears..  aliens? nuclear war? comets? What's your favorite fear you hide from others? What would you have thought?

Look at it.. is that Meteorite Set or Meteorite Rise?


Watch the video...

http://news.yahoo.com/meteor-explodes-over-russia-1-100-injured-175838744.html


What would you have gone through your mind?


What a day in the news for people who love weather, astronomy, geology and crazy conspiracy stories!!


http://rt.com/

Great job the Russians do these days with the news.. sometimes they cover the news here better than CNN...go figure.


Reminds me of the old days tracking the orbit of space capsules and splash down... 

Loved those stories...





As for me... now that I know we are home safe...


Let's turn our thoughts back to weather.............


That's the image posted at 3 PM... shortly after the asteroid passed us by...


The image will change in real time below:






Snow Cast for 12 hours from now...


Changing in real time... below:



The above image will change... let's see how good their forecasting is...

NWS Forecast for Saturday ... Shabbos...



What I love about weather is two days ago they said the slightest chance for some snow flakes..

Then......................they say maybe rain turning into some snow.. a mix...

Then.................they said there might be some accumulation...

NOW...they are saying... a small chance, snow banding... possible accumulation as high as .. 

3 to 4 inches... 

"we have to see where the snow sets up ..."

Keep watching... 

As for me... 

Going back to baking for Shabbos.

Personally... I got enough problems watching General Hospital/OLTL with the new old
story lines... 

Dr. Kevin is back........ Caleb.. 

Pick your poison round here on Planet Earth...and take a look back at 2 other asteroid impacts...

1908 Russia Again... 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunguska_event

A picture taken in 1927... of the flattened forests...



That asteroid that passed the earth was larger than 2 Semis... wow. The one in Russia was 10 tons. 

I wonder why one crashed landed forming a crater ... now a swamp in 1908...

... yet this one exploded into pieces...  

guess not all meteorites are not alike...

Who killed the dinosaurs...you know?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/extinction/dinosaurs/asteroid.html

Something to think on...

Besos Bobbi






Thursday, February 14, 2013

Which Model Has it Right? The Dance of 2012...2013..

Several models had whispered snow or a winter storm... yet the GFS aka "American" remains "our model" and the girl we take to the prom...

Tonight the GFS dreamt on snow...


Mind you I've been watching the satellites the last several days hoping for this ... as I'd like to see a little more snow in Carolina this winter. But...alas they have only shown rain.

Tonight at 5 PM they began to cave... whispers of snow flakes with rain...

Then.............the GFS sort of went a little snow crazy on Valentines Day...and at 11 PM the words "there may be some accumulation" worked their way into the forecast.



Hmmmmnnn.....

New York ...New Jersey also whispering sweet nothings of chances of snow on Saturday.

Will see. People are staying up for the models tonight to see what the GFS will say on the next run.



Someone is gonna have a long talk with the GFS before the next run... let's see what it snows tomorrow.

As for me.... had a nice day... may I say Victoria Secrets new "Perfect" Nail Polish is perfect :)

victorias-secret-nail-polish



So is a steak dinner ... I mostly eat Vegetarian style but the door is open for a piece of steak on Valentines Day with Sweet Potatoes that are so creamy they are to die for... peas, carrots, asparagus... nice.. very nice and a fire place that was used tonight for a change... nice. I love holidays... everyone is always so friendly and in a good mood...cause honestly when they are giving out chocolate and wine treats at Fresh Markets... how can you not smile?

Happy Valentines Day Weekend... Boat Show in Miami... Grove Art Show and a nice quiet Shabbos enjoying the possibility of snow.. on Saturday.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...

Bobbi

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Weather .. News..Storms.. Dorner.. State of My Union



Maybe I should write a manifesto.

What would I call it?

Silly with Sam.
Playing with Peter.
Dredging Up a Mystery
Storm Chasing Indeeed!

The list goes on.... the beat goes on.

I listened to KFI last night... a bit of KTLA... a bit of a few LA News Channels which got to tell you is like a trip down memory lane for a woman who lived in LA in the 80s. Lord all those traffic reports and incidents and it's amazing the whole city does not go stark raving mad. But, I was young and crazy and busy and having a blast in so many ways. Of course I was having a blast until... I no longer was and my past came crashing back in on me... but like I usually do I refused to believe the obvious and kept on dancing.

I loved LA. Said that before here... will say it again. I was away from Miami Memories until I wasn't... and even then with all those funky tall palm trees and strange people wandering around Melrose and the Sunset Strip and the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion and the Ambassador Hotel with all it's ghosts of the 20s wandering in and out of the Tea Room... oh I loved LA. Ports of Call, stupid mall in Torrance where it was suggested we go watch the carousel go round and round and round... and the view from Signal Hill... the view from Santa Monica Pier... the view from the Magic Castle. You need time to take in LA like a native.. you can't really do it in a day or a week.. you need to discover it slowly like the Tar Pits in August when you are 9 months pregnant and playing hooky from work on Wilshire. Or the Farmers Market... gee... wondering who I was bumping into while testing oranges... there's a weird thought. Or working on a back lot and sharing the food truck with people making funky movies on a then B label or passing the A & M Records office while looking for Tofutti... or eating Tofutti (soft serve) at the Rodeo Collection.   Hey if you were gonna live in LA... best to do it in the Disco 80s.

If you are wondering where the weather is... I'll get around to it. But, don't you know it never rains in Southern California.  They lie... never believe a song writer.. it rains and then the hill side goes sliding down the hill and the mud slides begin and then Pacific Coast Highway gets shut down and Malibu is a muddy mess.

LA is a funny place.

The LA Riots after Rodney King were not funny... nor were the "Super Bowl Riots" in Miami funny and they had nothing to do with the Super Bowl other than every reporter in the world was there to cover the Riots that Super Bowl Weekend.

I'm not the biggest conspiracy person around though I think whatever they are spraying up there in the skies that cause CHEMTRAILS mess with my allergies, asthma and sometimes give me massive headaches when I should not normally get a headache. Something not normal about the public ignoring something that is not normal and unprecedented and not wondering what is up there. I mean... we worry on Global Warming but we are not worried on Local Chemtrails which seem to be everywhere not just locally.  But, then again I ignored the obvious back in the 80s in LA didn't I?

People don't want to deal with things so they ignore them...    if you have to wash off your car after a particularly bad chemtrail day you should be wondering what's in the chemtrails? In Miami when we are going to have an African Dust Storm posing a threat we are warned... and yet on any sunny day when the satellites show a sunny day my skies get covered over milky white after twenty minutes of criss crosses in the sky ...for no apparent reason. I'd like to know the reason... I'd like a heads up .. I'd like to understand why we ignore the obvious...


Makes a pretty sunset... they don't go away like normal contrails... why?


Better to live in denial? I guess...

This whole rant on chemtrails is for my friend who has been having strange illnesses which get worse on days when the chemtrails are worse. First you feel sick...then you look outside and there are chemtrails everywhere... sort of like when I worked in LA and NEVER got headaches and got my Miami Headache and ran to the window and looked East towards downtown and McArthur Park and the sky was covered with Miami Clouds... Thunderstorms hanging low over LA and voila my Miami Headache.  Cause and Effect are always connected..

North Hills Malls.. Chemtrails... sky looked like Zorro was doing Air Graffiti in the sky ... in less time than it took for my Chai Latte to go cold the sky was milky white..  Not Contrails.. Chemtrails..there IS a difference. Just like a London Fog does not taste like a Pumpkin Spice Latte.



Notice the pattern here... two different days.. months apart...same pattern...same result.. cloudy skies afterwards, milky white..


The picture above is about 3 months earlier in Chapel Hill. Everyone at the gas station was in a rush except for the man nearby who was also watching them... he said, "they cause cancer you know?" and I said.. "not sure what they cause, but that is NOT normal" and as a sky watcher who has been watching clouds since I was old enough to look out the window... I know that is not normal and as a writer trained as a reporter... I want to know WHAT they are... WHO is doing it and WHY...

Back to the weather..

So............as for the weather... Active pattern in the US this coming week for the Northern Tier of the country. Ice on Great Lakes... possible snow storm... 3 lows dancing across the projected weather maps.

A link from one of my favorite weather pages:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Shows the week's progression of systems across the US.

As for the progression of my messy mind...

I spent the day yesterday looking through old IMs from 1998... AOL posts from 1997 and 96... emails from the 90s from Greece (long ones) and have a book of printed out letters which should be published in parts as musings from writers in deep discussions concerning past life times and recipes and weather maps and hurricane discussion but no I could not find what I was looking for......

But .... I did see the linkage and I did smile so it seems as the saying goes "one day we will look back at this and laugh"    I laughed... shook my head and giggled.

Weather...

It's winter... late winter and winter is all the rage in the North half of the country. In the South half we are seguing into Spring with severe weather.

One son saw the Eiffel Tower last night ... one son saw the Miami Heat win their 1,000th Game.. my daughter most

The Arab Spring has segued to an Arab Winter that is blanketing the Middle East with violence and future political problems with a Post Colonial Map of the area unraveling faster than we can make foreign policy decisions. My quote.. my husband is reading me an article by Thomas Friedman and I'm thinking I miss Tom's sister's brownies... man does she bake a mean brownie. Yes...the world is unraveling fast in real time and it's harder to control the middle east than to take out a Cop Killer in LA in a cabin in the woods when the sheriff is told to stop tweeting and the helicopters are told to take a hike and the people with the guns are in control.

(Political note..sorry.. degree in International Relations..remember? Read my bio..)

I'm guessing Winter will have one last mean blow out sometime in March before we start waxing poetic and counting down the days til the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.

Maybe I'll make a list for tomorrow... top 10 "love" moments for Valentines Day.. or top 10 men I've known in my life.. (hmmmmnnn men... man... can go with that, not in denial there... ) and maybe  not.

The State of My Union is thus...

Going "home" to Miami very soon... though "home" is a sliding target these days and they say home is where the heart is...   a woodpecker on the roof really does sound like Woody Woodpecker which reminds me of Woody which reminds of Woogy which is somewhere my mind does not want to go.

So... taking my messy mind and going to make plans for the day...and for tomorrow and going to watch the weather on TWC and some ESPN hoping to catch some videos of last nights game (how bout that Alabama story huh?) and going to watch the news and read some poetry and write some thing other than my blog or a story for someone else and going to read this article carefully and watch the video because I keep my promises and I promised a friend...

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/fort-hood-hero-obama-betrayed-victims/story?id=18465024

(note after the Government lied TWICE that the astronauts in BOTH Space Shuttle accidents died immediately and were vaporized and we found out both times they knew otherwise.. I have a problem with believing everything I hear from government sources... I like to double and triple check my sources personally)

How's your weather today?

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
(one of the best sites around for weather links ... make your home town your home page.. links down on the bottom right.. he should move that up higher.. more people would see it!)

Hope you like it...

A manifesto from a messy meteorological mind lol... and memories of things that are best left unsaid.. at least by me. I'm not that good writing screenplays or novels ...but maybe one day...who knows for sure?

Besos Bobbi... peek a boo Bobbi ;)







Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Mardi Gras Weather... Thunderstorms Possible. Snow in Oklahoma, Drama in Big Bear


What a day. Don't you just love news days like this? Korean Bomb Test ..it was NOT an earthquake. Wow.. I feel so much better. Mardi Gras...  sweet. Love praline anything...  And, wicked weather setting up for this evening in the Deep South. If there is not enough... it's snowing in Oklahoma where I have a friend who is going snow crazy and am getting ready to enjoy a nice quiet Mardi Gras dinner before watching the President speak..

Brie baked in a whole to do with Pecan Pie Ice Cream and Honey Bourbon Praline topping.. it's not that I don't like the Chinese New Year, but I'm a Southern Girl and Mardi Gras is special. How bout those Koreans shooting off rockets for the Chinese New Year... there's spirit for you!

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000f5t0#summary


M5.1 Nuclear Explosion - 24km ENE of Sungjibaegam, North Korea


Earthquake location 41.307°N, 129.076°E





Back in the USA... Mardi Gras is usually a beautiful day for a party...though so often the weather gets funky.

Today they are on the edge of a box watch for possible Severe Weather.  Personally, I think that the areas to the Northeast of Nola will get strong weather. Jackson, Mississippi vs Jackson Square might just be the place to look for stronger weather.



Further North and West it is snowing in Oklahoma. Should be a song about that. There's a song about rain and twisters and one of my favorite country songs "You're the Reason God Made Oklahoma" but is there one for snow?

http://www.koco.com/  good weather coverage always...


As for music...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTixpn8yzM8  <---- carrie="" nbsp="" p="" song...="" underwood="">
Love this song... meanwhile the snow will move East through Arkansas and the severe weather should move east towards Atlanta and South Carolina. Should is a funny word when talking weather forecasts, which are not always perfectly right but often close enough.




I've heard a rumor that we might get "flakes" late Saturday or Sunday.. doubt it but if I miss snow flakes am gonna be pissy at least until I get to the Florida line.. and see my first palm tree up close and personal.

We love weather. It's just who we are... binds us together like snow flakes piling up on the lawn, a white carpet of frozen sea foam..

Shame to rain on the Mardi Gras parade, but it's happened before...




http://www.nola.com/

In California... at the other end of the I-10... and a bit to the north is Big Bear... a beautiful place to go if you love snow and who doesn't love snow?  Okay...there is LOVING SNO and liking it in a ways.

I think it's pretty clear where I stand on this..

Of course, I love hurricanes.

Let's just say I am a "Weather Girl" or woman... at some point you DO become a woman right?

Weather there is typical for what you would find for this time of year.

http://www.bigbearweather.com/

No snow storms due for the rest of the week...so that's good if there is indeed a long stake out involved.

Dorner seems to be holed down in a cabin... but what do we know for sure? Hard to say so we will keep watching.

http://ktla.com/ (best source for any news LA related... )

Barricaded?
Hostages?
Really there?

Does this play out like some Hawaii Five-0 episode or what?

And, tonight in DC... far from the fray in Big Bear and far from the party in Nola... the President will give the State of the Union Address.

Big day for news..

As for me... going to watch FOX and CNN and TWC and hunker down...no not with guns but with honey bourbon ;) and listening to a beautiful song that means a lot to me. Heard it for the first time when living in LA... long time passing... used to eat at me and make me wonder on life.. life and the distance of time and location. Tells a story... if you listen.

Some stories start way before most people think they do... and some stories never end and go on for ever...

Music is like that... it's like raindrops on a warm summer night or snow falling at sunrise.

You're the reason God made Oklahoma...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqOg3JhJZdw

What's that stupid line in the old boat movie? A woman's heart is an ocean of secrets?

Well something like that ;)

Besos Bobbi...  Sweet Snowy Dream..

BobbiStorm

Love that CD :)

Monday, February 11, 2013

2013 Winter ----> 2013 Hurricane Season. Will the Beat Go On?

So any good tropical weather person will immediately look at the snow totals in New England, coming on the tails of Hurricane Sandy...2 back to back "historic events" and immediately wonder... "how will this translate to the coming hurricane season?"   It's just the way our mind is wired.

Historic Hurricane at the very end of the 2012 Hurricane Season followed by a wet, early season snow fall ...followed by a "historic" blizzard and we immediately start doing historical research on the Winter of 1938 and 1939...followed of course by the severe winter of 1940.

All the talk going into this last hurricane season was about the developing El Nino that never did quite materialize in time to make a big difference during most of the season. The jury is still out on that. As everyone argues Global Warming and what to do about it and if it in fact is happening the way they say it is... El Nino and his sister La Nina seem to have gotten lost in the shuffle. About as missing in action as the Los Angeles Serial Killer who may or may  not be up in the mountains or down in Mexico.


1938 going into 1939 was an El Nino Episode.



Much like the Everglades... it is a RIVER that runs through the atmosphere...deep down into the ocean currents and travels for miles across the ocean. The warmth or lack of warmth in the water effects the atmosphere up above (much as they say as above so below) it's all related... the sister sun and brother moon. 

So...there is this great illustration of how the way of the world works... atmospherically and oceanographically speaking. Wonder how this affects the geologists of the world but they are a rock of another color.  Snakes slither around rocks...they got to be careful. It's a whole other ball game.

Moving illustration:




See the problem is that the year prior the El Nino of 1939 - 1940  was a La Nina Event.

Does that mean it was a TRANSITION year between La Nina and El Nina when the 38 Hurricane hit New England? I guess... and as we know all transitions are difficult.


Hurricane Andrew came in August... the A storm as we were transitioning...

Hurricane Sandy came as we were supposed to be going into El Nino (but didn't) and then the days after Sandy saw a snow storm on top of a hurricane.  The pattern for hits on New England from storms that form around the Outer Banks and slam into New England the Long Island seems still set in stone...or what looks like stone so for the short term that trend should continue.

Then what? What's next? And....how will this correlate to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is my question and should be the question on the mind of every tropical weather person out there.

People are discussing it. Quietly in the background. No one seems to be able to get a real feel as last year's predictions sort of bombed out.

Are we "neutral" meaning both sister and brother are off somewhere conjuring up possible trouble down the road or... just neither is in charge?

Screen Shot 2013-02-10 at 10.21.26 AM

Good chart from a good blog.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.phpoption=com_community&view=
groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=2639&Itemid=179

Basically September is currently a crap shoot... anything goes?

The final word usually goes to the Government authorities:

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 February 2013
 
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
 
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
During January 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). While remaining below average, a high degree of variability in the weekly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices was apparent during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also below-average (Fig. 3), largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central Pacific by late January (Fig. 4). The variability in both the ocean and atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages of wind and convection. Anomalous upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Relative to December 2012, the region of enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.



1939 was not a busy season... then again we were not naming sub-tropicals and extra-tropicals then either.

File:1939 Atlantic hurricane season summary map.png

Compare that to the famous 1938 Season:

File:1938 Atlantic hurricane season summary map.png


It's an interesting thing to think on... then again life is complicated and today is the first day in weeks none of my kids are traveling or about to travel so am going to enjoy it.  Someone is always in transit in my world... sort of like planets... always moving around.

Interesting day in that the Pope is stepping down for health reasons and you don't see that every day.

When we argue weather we are discussing weather events since 1850... give or take when good record keeping began... history of snow storms doesn't go back far before the 1700s... America as we know it didn't go back before the 1770s... yet the last time a Pope "stepped down" was the 1400s...now that is historic!

More later...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Yes wild video of yesterday's twister on www.weather.com and Orko is terrorizing the Plains and as much as I want to stand on the beach in Miami under a plam tree and feel the balmy breeze, go all hog wild taking pics of tropical delights and hanging with my best friends Sharon and Malka... am gonna be sort of annoyed if I miss a snow storm... such decisions ...not easy for a messy meteorlogical muse.

Enjoy the article below that was published in the Miami's Community Newspapers.

http://www.levimeyer.com/22666/dsp_agent_page.php/191976

That's my son... buy a house from him or list a house by him... he is a third generation Miamian dealing in Real Estate... no one knows Miami better than that! Am proud of him.. always have been .. always will..   life around Levi is always a thrill ;)  (test to see if it reads this). I've written a lot of things, been published a lot of places and written with some pretty famous people ... but this collaboration was the best thing I've done in ages :)

http://www.communitynewspapers.com/archive/south-miami/



Links for history and weather... by the way... it really is COLD up north and when you really want a condo or a home away from home where the sun shines in February... Henry Flagler had it right... you have to go all the way to Miami to find a place where the freeze doesn't hit ya..


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_New_England_hurricane

http://thehistorytavern.blogspot.com/2010/12/worst-snowstorms-in-history.html


Thursday, February 07, 2013

Is "NEMO" a Cat 5 Blizzard? NE Prepares for Historic Storm NYC Watch Out!





Is it just me or does this feel like Sandy the Winter Sequel? A bit too Deja Vu if you ask me...

A major storm "historic" storm that may be the "worst" storm to hit the Boston Metro since 1978...

New York City could get


TWC has something called a "STORMCOM THREAT NUMBER" and it's pretty reliable.

There is a "10" for New England and they have NEVER put up a TEN before according to them.

Words like "unprecedented" and "historic" are being used everywhere...

If this was a Hurricane it would be a Category 5...

And, yet unlike a hurricane snowstorms play out in real time and no is sure if NYC will get a little snow, rain or snow or 18 inches...

Boston is being hyped as Ground Zero.


http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BOX

New data shows NYC may get between six inches and twelve inches... 

Why do these "late season" storms do more damage than your ordinary run of the mill storms?

Hurricane Sandy comes late in the season... after a lot of weak storms and becomes a force to be reckoned with and... "NEMO" is no different.

Energy pent up is always released. It gets released in constant small ways with one strong storm after another....or..........it gets released in a big explosive way after a quiet period.

Andrew ... the A Storm at the END of August. 

Sandy in late October which wasn't all over..  unlike the old saying.

New York City should get blanketed with snow not just a dusting.

Boston, Hartford and places in between NYC and Boston (draw a line) will have a lot of problems and the damage total could be massive. Business closings. Travel delays. Power Outages. 

Go get your junk food fix or batteries or whatever you might need to ride out this storm.

Timing: Weekend. Good. As he said in Boston... "stay home on Saturday" which basically means "hunker down"

http://www.jetblue.com/JetblueAlerts/WeatherUpdate.aspx?intcmp=global_travelalert

Due to inclement weather forecasted in the Northeast, we will waive change/cancel fees and fare differences for Customers traveling Friday, February 8 through Saturday, February 9, to/from the following cities:
  • Boston (BOS)
  • Buffalo, NY (BUF)
  • Hartford, CT (BDL) 
  • Newburgh (SWF)
  • Newark, NJ (EWR)
  • John F. Kennedy (JFK)
  • LaGuardia (LGA)
  • Westchester County (HPN)
  • Portland, ME (PWM)
  • Providence, RI (PVD)
  • Rochester, NY (ROC)
  • Syracuse, NY (SYR)

All customers traveling to/from the airports listed above are encouraged to check the status of their flight online prior to leaving for the airport. 


Southwest Air and the rest of them pretty much have the same warnings up.

Worcester could get up to 24 inches. Just a heads up there...

Moving West now... Chicago to New York to Boston..   Trendy Storm.

 

Look at that moisture from the storm in the South being fed up towards the track of the snow storm already moving across Lake Michigan. And, when they meet up... WOW.

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

If you have kids at home. You may want them to color something... save the power on your cell phones and the iPad as you could...lose power. Hopefully not... but I'd be prepared. Crayons do not need batteries nor do they need to be charged... just sharpened.


If you don't can't swim south... you might want to fly south for the rest of February. 

Miami has a lot going on... boat show, art show, weather showing off..



If you are in New York...or Boston... you will be watching Mother Nature showing off...

Get what you need now, because this is not all about hype.. it's all about a Winter Storm.

NWS for NYC:

7-DAY FORECAST

  • TonightSnow likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. East wind 9 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • FridaySnow before noon, then rain and snow. The rain and snow could be heavy at times. High near 38. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Friday NightSnow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
  • SaturdaySnow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 30. Windy, with a northwest wind 22 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
  • Saturday NightMostly clear, with a low around 15. Northwest wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
  • SundaySunny, with a high near 37.
  • Sunday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 26.
  • MondayRain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


And, that should be upgraded as new models show it will be more intense closer to the coast as the storm is not taking the far out to sea scenario.

Forecast for New England:
Ouch... hunker down, make sure your house is prepared and make sure your friends and any elderly home bound family members or friends have what they need to get them through what could be a historic storm and one for the record books!

Besos Bobbi

Ps... still in Raleigh...still slowly recuperating and getting gray days with rain starting any minute. And, that's okay ... because I'll be warm soon ;)