Strong bands spiraling in over the north shore of Puerto Rico as I type this... and when I say towards I mean that even if the eye stays north of PR with an expanding, violent storm the storms in the bands have gusts way above hurricane force winds.
Three days ago the forecast went on and on about finding the weakness in the ridge... north of the islands, leeward islands keeping an eye on Earl.
There was no strong talk that Puerto Rico might want to pay very careful attention. Just a lot of CYA talk on low confidence in the forecast track. I'm sorry that is way way WAY too mild language for a hurricane that was forecast to be a Major Cane even then.
One thing I will give the NHC credit for is they got the forecast intensity dead on, even if they messed up on the track a bit.
Why should New Yorkers and people in the Carolinas worry?
Because until Earl takes the turn the turn could and I say ...could...come to late to spare a hit in the Carolinas and with temps in NY and Maine that are running FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE their normal high temps they are in a prime position to suck this storm in IF and a very qualified IF the front over the Great Lake does not do what they expect it to or it does too much. It's a very dangerous ballet being played out in real time and when a Cane goes Major and does pull north he can make it from the Outer Banks to NYC in less than 12 hours.
Let me put this into perspective.
24 hours ago no one was worrying on Puerto Rico getting hurricane force winds other than me looking at the wind probs.
What if.... people in NY who don't spend a lot of time reading up online look at some cone and it shows Earl moving out to sea and kissing the tip of Long Island goodbye and possibly flirting with Cape Cod. Most Yankee fans couldn't give a damn about what happens in Boston and they go to bed thinking "I'm out of it" and they wake up to trees going pop in the morning light, things crashing into their windows not boarded up and high surf flooding in Long Island and those parts of Brookyn prone to flooding and wondering WTF happened...
This is not about hyping a storm...this is about worrying on all scenarios, best case and worst case scenarios.
New Yorkers are known ...infamous for walking out on Jets games when their team falls 10 points behind, not a lot of patience there. Red Sox fans will sit in their seats, in the cold fall staring in beat up coats in Fenway Park waiting for their team to come miraculously from behind and win and even watching them lose is better than not watching them. So ....forgive me if I don't worry on friends in Rhode Island (if they are even there currently) where as I am worried on New Yorkers... even Yankee fan New Yorkers ;)
This is NOT the storm to have a false sense of security on ...not in a long range track that can vary by 200 plus miles 3 days away and it will take less than a day, less than half a day to veer in to the left and slam into parts of NY and Long Island and cruise right into Rhode Island and Ct and make memories in Cape Cod...Martha's Vineyard .... I mean... the 1939 Hurricane DID happen, I know because I watched "Portrait of Jennie" when young on Channel 6 in Miami.
It's Labor Day Weekend... do not go away early, wait until Earl passes safely offshore.
Watch the news, the radio and pay attention...and for all of you with family out there up north, tell them to pay attention.
Sorry...best I could do, not as nice as the pretty yellow one from when you punked me.. but it's Martha's Vineyard just the same ...and for my kids in the NY area, this is not a Miami Tropical Event...it's fast moving and there is not a lot of time to prepare unless you prepare now...
This is supposed to hit Cat 4 before the day is over.
I'd like to see that turn happen yesterday....
An Upper Level Low that came off the backside of Danielle helped intensify Earl.
Damage is happening in the Virgin Islands, seen it on webcams that are still up and power is out in many places. Although it is moving more to the WNW it's core is expanding and therefore the little bit extra distance might not help as the storms in the bands are far from the center of intensifying Earl.
Again, for this storm please use the 123 Mariners Rule rather than the 5 Day Cone. Just my advice. With a Category 3 or 4 or even 5 storm a miss is mot as good as a mile, a miss can cause tremendous damage from strong storms in the bands far away or near by but when you didn't "officially get the storm" so stay on top of this.
Learn how to use the wind prob page of the NHC forecast:
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 21(33)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12)
Loops to use:
others at stormcarib.com and hurricanecity.com
Will be in touch .... will update later... right now watching the loops and talking to friends tracking and preparing to chase.