A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Stock Up On Starbucks for a Hurricane???
So... I'm in Miami doing my thing, hanging out on Lincoln Road and enjoying the never ending motion of life in the tropics when I take a few minutes out of my busy "walking on Lincoln Road" to get me some Java Brew...
One of the best Starbucks..really ...take a look at this building is that tropical java or what?
And....I get to the counter, debate if it's too hot for hot coffee, am I in the mood for Iced Coffee or maybe an Espresso when I look up and see a hurricane symbol. Mind you ... I always stop for hurricane symbols :)
They are hawking their new instant coffee packages aka VIA ... reminding people to stock up on their hurricane supplies and don't forget the Starbucks lol.
Funny part is that I stock up on their little cans of Espresso at Publix... and okay I do have a few of the little travel packages tucked away for a just in case hurricane :)
As far as the tropics go...there is either a 30% chance or a 20% and 10% chance of something forming. Two weak waves are moving west along the ITCZ ..one into the Caribbean and one towards the islands. There is a wave in the SW Caribbean that has no yellow circle that is flaring up because of it's proximity to an upper level low nearby. Nothing exactly ready to pop but hey any excuse is a good excuse to go into a Starbucks so.... stock up and be prepared just in case :)
Ps Have I mentioned that Miami gyrates in tropical motion? I love it... so much color and life and wind and turquoise water with a light show every afternoon as the sun goes down behind some towering thunderhead :)
Bonnie Downgraded to a Tropical Depression... I loved Bonnie
Absolutely loved Bonnie... had a great day in many ways and enjoyed every minute of it! And, like Bobbi she turned out to be a South Dade girl... made landfall in the south part of Miami Dade county.. NOT the Keys.
Let's hope that Bonnie is as kind to other cities in her path...
Beautiful little storm. Great day at the beach.
Besos Bobbi ps will post pics later when i get them all together :)
After reading this announcement I am wondering.... is this Bayfall???
"000 WTNT33 KNHC 231450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY INLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION"
Fell asleep on the futon facing the sliding glass door...woke up with wind hitting the glass hard. I smiled. Good Morning Bonnie!!
These two pics show you how fast rain storms in bands move in as they were taken about 10 seconds apart at the most...first the pic above... love that green water... and then the pic below...
A close up of the beautiful foamy beach...
Truth is this storm was handled well by both the NHC and all local governments in the South Florida area. People going slower, enjoying the beauty of nature and aware that we have stronger weather in intense thunderstorms but
We all love The Weather Channel but I think they are hyping this just a bit.. "endlessly pounding South Florida" is a bit much...
Went out for breakfast with my best friend... watched the squalls going by the window, enjoying it all. Worried on where Bonnie will go if she sticks together down the road.
But, that is down the road... will post pics as I have time... just know it's very tropical and different rain than usual as in FEELS different. Yesterday was a fine mist everywhere... this morning on the balcony it was heavy hitting like needles..then it was quiet. NOT a hurricane... just Tropical Storm Bonnie.
Bonnie was kind to South Florida... not sure if she will be as kind to other ports of call.
Back later with more info... stay safe and enjoy...
Some Pictures from North Miami Beach... as Bonnie moves in...
Amazing ... North Miami Beach on The Weather Channel...
Nice pics... nice night... strong warm, velvety wind whips around the tops of the condos and showers race by like they are on the spokes of a wheel.
Stores busy tonight. Sitting cozy in Golden Beach area... staring out at the sky through big sliding glass doors... and occasional streak of lightning goes jagged like across the sky. Local coverage tries to explain why Bonnie keeps being adjusted north and when the "worst of it" will be tomorrow.
Miami is in love with storms like this... small, weak tropical storms.. all the hype and flavor without too much trouble. Drive time tomorrow morning should be a mess. The sun should be out by the weekend.
I do think this is a prelude to a much stronger storm later in the Fall for Miami.. time will tell but we are in the flow set up wise and unless something changes I wouldn't be surprised if a much stronger storm came this way...
For tonight... hunkered down with kids who are hanging out and chilling and watching Bonnie on radar and watching the lightning light up the sky.
Either she intensifies or gets downgraded... that's my guess. And, expect to see that track pulled back to the north a bit more as Bonnie is being pulled more to the north around the flow of the Upper Level Low and it's an interesting storm... that's all I'll say. Each in it's own way is interesting.
Miami is amazing. Breakfast at Bayside this morning and hunkered down for a Hurricane Party tonight... low key party, no liquor... lots of cherries and designer water ;)
Bands of rain have already started to hit my window panes in North Miami Beach. A squall went through here earlier and it was wild, really wild... a few seconds later the sun came out and well.... it's tropical weather :)
And, it's become a problem as they have had to relocate Bonnie twice now as she is moving more north than the models showed and that will have to be figured out.
Publix is busy with shoppers buying the regular suspects of snacks and their favorite water and the city is not expecting much.
If there is much more than we are expecting people will be surprised and they will complain... but most likely this is a rain event and a drive time nuisance for the morning. Or... maybe not... only time will tell.
I'll be back later with some live pics... Bonnie... got to love it..
Recon trying to figure out Bonnie - Tropical Storm Warnings for Miami
She looks good, she looks weak, she looks good again. Not a good scenario for a storm that is that close in and about to pass over a spot of very hot water. I mean if you say she is weak and then people go to sleep and wake up tomorrow with a 55 mph Tropical Storm in their face they will not be happy campers.
Miami and most of SE Florida and the Florida Keys have a Tropical Storm Warning. Yes Virginia, I am in Miami while there is a tropical storm warning :)and Bonnie which is like my alter ego in jokes often..
The Upper Level Low is moving away, she seems to have slowed a bit or is simply at the hairdresser having her hair and nails done. Not sure but whatever she is doing she has moved more to the northeast than wnw so would chalk that off to a relocated center vs real time movement.
Going WNW she should be at 22.2 and 75.1 and yes we are splitting hairs but meteorology is all about math and consistency and when something isn't consistent there is a reason.
The track has been consistent... though if the trend continues they will have to nudge the cone to the north (right) just a bit. Also, unless she wraps it together tightly most of the weather is to the north and east of the storm so people far from the "center" could get the worst weather. Also... she has a long, long band of rain that goes down to Cuba and that will track across the Keys and continue to feed moisture into her watery heart :)
By 5pm we will have some better answers to a lot of questions... so hang tight and then decide what your plans for tomorrow will be if you live in the South Florida area... and I do.
Later... we will worry about her impact along the Gulf Coast and which particular coastline will get her second landfall and we will have a better idea how strong she will be when she gets there.
Lastly... remember storms can ramp up fast while in the Gulf Stream and that becomes a problem for a city just to the west of the Gulf stream so you can never turn your back on a simple little Tropical Depression or Girlie named Bonnie...
Sounds like a comedic love story. Cute heroine, blonde streaks in her hair... wears seashells like hair clips and hot pink flip flops. Will she find love in the Bahamas or take a quick flight out of FLL to Nola? Stay tuned.... she's got a luggage filled with fruity, floral scented body sprays from Victoria Secrets and she is ready to party.
And, so am I.
Well, tomorrow is my brother Ronnie's birthday and I have tried to arrange with the weather powers that be to give Ronnie Bonnie for his birthday :) He is a weather freak by nature or nurture or maybe it's just in our DNA. Still wondering if we are somehow related to Stephanie Abrams as we are all old Florida Abrams but can wonder on that another day lol. Today, tonight is for watching Bonnie try and pull herself together.
She's got vorticity, the shear is dropping and she has a real look about her. Of course her pressure isn't exactly dropping.
Life is a crap shoot and weather is even more of a crap shoot. More like playing poker out on the porch and either you got no wind or the chips are flying in the breeze.
South Florida would still be her first stop IF she forms. Then onto the other Gulf States near La and Ms.. time will tell.
The 8PM EDT data for the invest was a very approximate.... 19.8N 68.5W 30 knots 1012 mb
For now all she is ... is an invest which stands for area being investigated. A lot like playing fantasy cane online... no I don't think there is an APP for the iphone but there should be if there isn't.
Stay tuned... IF she develops we are talking Friday or Friday night in Miami... Ft. Lauderdale maybe... time will tell and so will I.
Besos Bobbi ps.... this is pretty close in and as soon as it finds a center it should pop. We are not at 2am at 70% chance and I have been told (off the record) that I will have tropical storm conditions in about 2 days so if so... Bonnie better stop playing possum and show herself so that the powers that be can give the proper heads up to those of us living along the Southeast coast of Florida and the Florida Keys.
She has a look to her today, definitely wants to be Bonnie but when and how and where is the question.
The NHC has proclaimed her as "vigorous" which usually is a sign they are looking to buy her business cards, engraved business cards.
She has a nice look, a curvature visible on all satellite imagery and she is less than 24 hours away from finding her groove...if you ask me. And, I am a woman who knows a lot about finding her groove so I can definitely be smiling at despite all the negative talk on how nothing will develop for weeks... something seems to be developing. Of course the key word there is SEEMS...
We are in watch and wait mode today and that means I am going shopping.. Victoria Secrets is calling my name today. It's windy, blustery and breezy and beautiful in Miami and I am almost out of my Pure Seduction Body Spray ..
Of course she has to get past the axis of the Upper Level Low and she has to hit warmer water ....both of which look like they might happen.
The last few waves have tracked through the Keys... west bound. If she develops and gets a name... let's say maybe a Tropical Storm than she might have a specific track vs a general westbound movement.
It's like going to Oz to get a brain or a heart... or a plan.
So, check back on the Vigorous Wave that is moving towards the Bahamas and remember if you hear the words Turks and Caicos.... pay real close attention. Storms that develop close in have a history of pain and problems. It's easier to have these Cape Verde Waves develop far out at sea and recurve up around the Sargasso Sea than to play peek a book with us in Bimini!
Besos Bobbi Ps.... BIG WAVE coming off of Africa but very messy with multiple personality disorder. Almost too big to figure out what is going on. Banding to the west and low pressure to the east. Give it time and some Mocha Java and let's deal with what's close in before we fantasize on what's over Senegal.
Heads Up.... Something Slowly Developing? Moving towards Bahamas and Cuba or SE Florida?
Which is it and is it developing? That is the question...
As for me right now... I see a blob of tropical weather to the East-South-East of me and you can bet that I am watching it carefully out of the corner of my eye.
Had an amazing day today. Sat at the Ritz Carlton sipping a drink and staring out at the beautiful turquoise water and feeling the constant, fresh, steady breeze out of the East. Yesterday I was in Key West watching fast moving showers sprinkle rain on Duval Street and all I could think is we are in the flow.... anything that forms will move from east to west... easily across the Florida Straits or stray north over South Florida or be pressed a bit south under Cuba... but the general flow is east to west.
strong waves and wind....
So... where something forms ...when it forms... will say a lot about where it ends up.
There is an invest up... and.... the NHC was looking at a track over or near South Florida as a tropical storm in a few days. Now... why is the 60 million dollar question seeing as most of the models take it to the south of that track.
Why is a question I would like answered...and we should have more answers tomorrow.
For now...this is a heads up... and tonight this is the song that is stuck in my head. Amazing times we live in when people can give charity to rebuild after a disaster with a simple tap tap tap of keys on their cell phones and when we know that we can be the change we want to see in the world by being the person we would like to meet next...
Still not sure something might not form in the Carib near or South of Cuba ... if so that would pull that system behind it...well putting the horse before the cart aren't we right now?
Keep watching the tropics and keep becoming the change you want to see in the world.. you can do it... we all can do it!!
There is a beautiful wave coming off of Africa. It's right where it should be, though a bit early climo wise and there is some dry air out ahead of it but it's a real keeper wave. Would be a shame to see that wave fall apart.
Elsewhere, there has been a persistent area of convection that webs and ebbs in the Bahamas or just east of the Bahamas. On one hand the area is not conducive to development, on the other hand the longer it persist the longer it needs to be watched or peeked at. Something is going on there, perhaps just summer rain...don't know.
As for me ...today is a travel day. Going to be reading over somethings, listening to music and possibly writing a bit.
My kids sent me the most amazing youtube video last night of storms forming far off in the Gulf Stream. Towering over the distant beach... not sure if they ever rolled in or not or just put on a fancy light show for the kids with the Iphones to upload video to their crazy weather mama. Crazy, great kids...
So.... going to check out their view for myself and sit on a pier and stare out at the blue water, blue skies and wonder when something is going to twist in the night other than me at Zumba.
Tropical DEPRESSION 2 Makes Landfall ...as a TD.... Bonnie will be used elsewhere
Well, Tropical Depression 2 did it! It made landfall in South Texas as a Tropical Depression, no last minute burst of energy like the scene in Dr. Strangelove. Good call (as always) by the NHC for keeping it a TD and not hyping the system like some on air weather forecasters have been doing.
Nope... just a depression which is all it really was and is and will be on the books.
A good sign was the lack of even tropical storm warnings for the area. A simple "heads up" and validation of something there more than a cluster of thunderstorms.
The search for Bonnie goes on.
My brother Ronnie's birthday is July 21st. He would like a storm named Bonnie as a birthday present. Just posting it here.... so you all can be aware what wishes my family wishes for on their birthday. Hey, he was born in the year of Betsy in Miami, it's in his blood... he was just a baby. I stood by his crib, bored to death with the TV off, power out playing with the little springs on his crib like it was a pin ball machine without anything going tilt but my mother "STOP DOING THAT!!!" as if like I could hurt him or something???
Anyways...............the search goes on and Texas gets some rain...
I love a rainy night... would love to lie awake listening to the rain and watching the lightning light up the sky :) (Thank you Music Man for this CD I am listening to called "Weather Songs" <3 puts a smile on my face every time)
Still a tropical depression and note as of now there are NO Watches or Warnings up, not even a Tropical Storm Watch....which says a lot.
Official lingo from NHC:
"TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 700 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010
...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...."
There will be rain, a lot of rain. Tropical rain maybe. But, unless they make changes at the next advisory this nothing more than a Tropical Disturbance with just enough circulation there somewhere to be worthy of the designation of Depression.
Time will tell whether Texas gets more or not and the debate will go on whether Bonnie was in the Gulf last week but not named or whether this was Bonnie or where will Bonnie be...
Over the sea ...of course :)
Getting some cuban coffee and will be back later... maybe.
Fine.... talk for hours and now they make it official!
Sounds like a quick upgrade to Bonnie in the morning if the organizational trend continues.
Salient part of the Discussion is as follows:
"Dropsonde data from two NOAA aircraft on a research mission in and around the depression indicate surface winds near 30 kt in the eastern semicircle...and this was used as the initial intensity for this advisory."
Score one for the dropsondes ... models are in good agreement and the track seems simple, if anything in the world of tropical weather is simple...though this should be simple.
NOW I am going to bed... sweet tropical depression dreams indeed...
And the winner is..............the wanna be Alex that will most likely get upgraded to Tropical Depression status and even possibly the name Bonnie. Not sure on the name.. time will tell. Something going on there, what it is ain't exactly clear but the beautiful men in their flying machines are investigating it as we suffer through torrid weather on the East Coast.
It's 94 degrees at 9pm in Raleigh... I can't wait to be home next week in Miami in good old high 80s and the humidity that goes with tropical weather. The last time I felt the air this hot and dry I was in L.A. and a Santana Wind was about to come barreling down the mountains about to scorch the basin.
Speaking of California... a 5.4 earthquake has just rattled an area near San Diego. I keep wondering if it's a random occurrence of the start of some shake, rattle and roll vs the Shake and Bake summer in Virginia and the Carolinas... not to mention NYC and their hyped up heat wave. Hey... it's hot, not saying it's not.
Just saying that at this point I think we have a tropical disturbance in the Gulf and possibly it could become a Depression headed for Brownsville or the Border.
There is a mid-level circulation there but has it worked it's way down to the surface.
Either way.... it wins the prize from the July 4th Colored Circle Raffle!!
Stay tuned.... will update tomorrow morning... sweet tropical dreams..
Joy of the Water Vapor Loop and the Search for Bonnie and Colin
Part of the joy of tropical tracking is watching a different scene play out every day. There is no joy in Tropicville for trackers today... and even the Atlantic is wearing a sort of sad face as witnessed above :(
The differences from twelve hours ago to the current image is interesting. The dark trench of dry air that was in the East Carib has been erased by moisture. The left side of the swirling entities in the North Atlantic took over and the right side has gone to sleep. The wave in the mid-Atlantic popped out of nowhere and everything changes every twelve hours or so.
Unlike our lives which take a lot longer to change the water vapor loop is always evolving, always fresh, new, different, similar but fluid and fantastic to watch...every day even on days without a storm forming.
I suppose it's like fishing. I've never been a big fisherman sort of girl though I have a best friend named Fishing. Usually we talk about life, the tropics and what sort of food we like to hold in our hands. But, I do know fishing people go to the water and stare down a lot, look up at the sky, feel the wind and have all sorts of signs they read to see whether the fish will or won't be jumpin' today. And, to each person the sign may be a little different... muddy water, clear water... "need to wait a few more days...."
Watch the sunrise at the end of Duval Street early in the morning and you'll see all the early morning fisherman people casting their lines and debating if the fish will bite or not while totally ignoring couples taking pics of themselves with the sun rising behind them. Note...one of the joys of Key West is that you can watch the same sun rise and watch it set without going anywhere, truly paradise.
The water vapor is to wave watchers the same way fisherman look for signs.
Conditions will be better in a day or two. The NHC gives a wave a zero percent chance of developing. Why bother? Well, they are noting it... or noting it and saying "don't bother" or just looking for something to talk about. Possibly the young uns as my friend Judd would say were watchin the store while the A team were out celebrating July 4th... haha 4 circles on July 4th!! Maybe we got a joker there.... today the A team is back and they have yanked those two mischievous circles and down to 2. There is an orange circle by the Yucatan where Alex2 wants to form and a small yellow circle hovering over the coast of like a Tropical UFO or the Ghost of Christmas Past.
Yes, the area that Jim Cantore thinks should have been a named system (if given another six hours over water) may re-emerge over water and we can hammer it to death again on the message boards.
I'm wondering personally if the orange circle forms... should we bother wasting the name Bonnie on it and can't we just call it Alex2 The Sequel?
So, back to the water vapor loop.... watch it, play with it, get to know it. It shows you possibilities and probabilities and trends that are developing that will put out a Welcome Mat for Tropical Development or a "Closed for Fishing" sign... if you get my drift and am sure you do.
Compare and contrast the picture below with the picture above..
Notice how the dark trenches in the Carib have been erased and there is more moisture what with to work with as Ole Judd Juggmonger would say. And, a really purty wave has popped out in the Middle of the Atlantic that if I was being allowed to play with the crayola at the NHC i would color it in sort of mauve like...
And, notice also today that the orange system over the Yucatan is going red and I do believe there should be a little yellow circle out in the Atlantic because I do think that system wants to go shopping in the Caribbean.
Maybe it's shopping for my brother's birthday which is today :) Happy Birthday Bro... you da best big brother a girl ever had that was her younger brother ;)
As for the NHC.... come on guys either a Zero is a Zero or it's a 1... lemme put it to you this way. If something says "less than 1 gram of Fiber" on the package you don't count that as ONE GRAM OF Fiber when figuring out the points. Nope... it does not count. For those of you doing points on Weight Watchers...explain it to the NHC please ;)
As the fireworks explode, somewhere over yonder on the other side of the pine trees fireworks are exploding all over the tropics, orange and yellow big balls of tropical energy going bang, kaboom and pow all across the Tropical Atlantic.
The NHC has painted the basin in those crayola colors you loved as a child. Yellow, Yellow-Orange and Orange. When they figure out who is hiding the red crayon, expect to see them paint the Caribbean red.
Alex 2 the Sequel is sequestered in the SW Carib, trying to make a run for the border. A spooky sort of path which makes you scream Deja VU. There is a yellow for low circle in the Gulf near the oil rig making the execs at BP pop Tagamet faster than beer chugged at the White House. A pre-requisite area of tropical moisture circles just east of the Florida coast ...a remnant of a long ago TD 4 is stuck in a climo favored area for weak, sketchy development and a wave out east of the islands is screaming REMEMBER ME ... remember me.... don't forget me...
A few days ago the models went psycho and beginning spitting out tropical cyclones like balls in a pin ball machine, 1, 2, 3 and 4... one looped around in circles off of the North Carolina coast... one took a bee line for the Gulf of Mexico... one floundered in the Atlantic... Everyone made fun of the models and wondered what more could be done to adjust them, some were adjusted and played with a while back but still they kept lobbing tropical cyclones at forecasters as futuristic storms B, C, D and possibly even E.
Now, a few days later the NHC has painted the Caribbean with Peter Farrelly Yellow and a Butternut Squash Orange... or is that Mango Orange.
Either way... only time will tell if any of these circles explode or simply fizzle like a fast burning sparkler.
At the moment the area in the Atlantic is looking better than it's 20% chance. Who knows, maybe it will be upgraded to orange-yellow ;) or orange-red.
Either way the Grand Finale is waiting off in the distance for Labor Day...
Pick your circle and start tracking. We may get into the Greek Alphabet yet this season.
Still Tropical Storm Alex... Halfway Across Mexico 24 Hours After Landfall
Pretty amazing if you ask me. I've seen a lot of things, but rarely seen anything like this... especially in June. Atypical for climo... not some weak, wannabe June storm... on it's way to the Pacific I think. It should be downgraded soon, but as of 5pm it is still a Tropical Storm Alex.
At least 11 people have died in Mexico, this name will be retired after this year.
When someone says Alex, we will think that wild June storm of 2010.
This morning as of 5am he was still a hurricane inland, just recently downgraded to a 70 mph tropical storm, moving at a pretty fast clip and way inland. Pretty amazing how well he has stayed together. Currently, a large rain band is slamming Texas with strong rain, darker color than in Alex who still has a large, intense ball of deep convection and tropical storm force winds intact.
As for me... watching my youngest fly off to Postville or well... as close as you can get to Postville with a two hour car ride to town lol. Love it there in ways, but not making that trip right now.
Will update this afternoon after seeing how he is doing and damage reports.
Two waves may develop in the Carib/Gulf later this week... one in the oil mess area and one closer to where Alex did his breeding dance. And, a distant tropical wave dances out in the ocean.
Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: W at 12 mph Min pressure: 977 mb