Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Alex Makes Landfall as a Cat 2 in Soto La Marina, Mexico

Alex has officially made landfall in the Soto La Marina municipality of Mexico, about 110 miles south of Brownsville, Texas as a category 2 Storm. Note that the entire Brownsville area of Texas is being affected, power is out in most places and there is street flooding. Shelters in Brownsville have reached capacity and they dodged a big bullet but did not dodge hurricane conditions and some damage.

This is the beautiful beach that got the honor of the official landfall of Alex.

And, the troubles from Alex will continue for the next few days as areas on both sides of the border will suffer flooding rains, flash floods and the situation could be even more devastating depending on how fast Alex moves. Much like Floyd making landfall ... all the media was set up on the beach for the perfect shot, yet the drama unfolded inland over the next few days with inland flooding.

It's now the National Weather Service's job to give warnings throughout West and South Texas to prepare people for deteriorating and dangerous conditions.

From the NHC's official statement:


Note... a flash flood advisory has already been issued for San Angelo, Texas far inland.


The drama has just begun, this is Act 2 now... the real story continues.

Financially, the beaches of South Coastal Texas make a good portion of their money over a few holiday weekends of the year, this is one of them and they took a bit hit here even though they dodged the eye.

Triva wise I want to say that in the same way that this wave was a large, diffuse, messy tropical wave covering a large part of the Carib... this hurricane maintained it's early signature of having a huge, large, messy area of tropical weather even as a hurricane and places far away from the eye will be getting weather tonight from Alex.

Once... a long, long time ago a weather friend asked me my choice of places to spend a hurricane with him... well you know how us weather trackers and chasers are... a little weather obsessed... along with a hotel room in Nola looking out on the city was standing in the wild surf in Texas near Brownsville watching a hurricane come in and toasting the storm with tequila. It's been a great visual in my mind for a long time. I may have chosen the hotel room in Nola... they chose the wild surf in Texas.

Sweet Tropical Dreams ;)

Can almost taste the tequila and the taste of the wild surf ;)

Alex Goes Cat 2.. Strongest June Cane Since 1966?

Awesome power in the eye of Alex. Category 2 with 100 mph winds and strengthening.

Look at Alex just about to make landfall and developing still, barometric pressure dropping fast and the eye has turned into a pinpoint of light within a dangerous round circle of strengthening 100 mph winds. He is a Category 2 but to the naked eye he is beginning to look like a Cat 3. Officially, a Category 2 but keep watching.

A dramatic story is playing out here in the world of weather.

Also, because of the strange structure of this storm the area of strong winds is wide and spread out and will affect a huge area. This is not small Brett coming ashore, this is a HUGE storm.

Tornado Warnings are up for South Texas (means a tornado sighted and on the ground) near Brownsville. It will be a wicked night for people on both sides of the border tonight.

Will be back with the exact site of landfall, but for now... he is a thing of beauty for weather lovers everywhere. Intense, wild, spinning and the first in what will most likely be a string of spinners.
Loop that loop above and fall in love with a spinning hurricane.

Wiki on Alma, another infamous June storm.

More to come.... prayers for those in his path... my biggest fear here is that he acts more like a major hurricane yet many may think he is weaker and will not be prepared for how strong he really is... my prayers for those in his path...

Besos Bobbi
ps...Twister on the ground in Cameron County, Texas

Images of Alex...

Where is he going?

What does he look like?

Classic beautiful cane....

Up close and personal above and global footprint below

Big, big, picture...


Be back later with more reports after it makes landfall. Loving the coverage on TWC and wishing I was on the beach with their on air people.

Besos Bobbi

Beautiful BIG Alex

Alex is intensifying in the Gulf as he moves slowly towards a landfall in Mexico just south of the border. However, his "weather" is going to affect many people far from the center of the storm with heavy squalls and strong bands of severe weather.

Brownsville and Corpus Cristi may be far from the eye but they are both going to get nailed weather wise and they may get hurricane force winds.

He is a beautiful storm.

Problems last night on the plane with the radar that wasn't cooperating and conflicting data show a complicated storm in a very fluid mode of intensification.

On one side it is BIG, HUGE and the low pressure is much lower than the wind speed implies, which basically means that Alex is MUCH stronger than he appears. Sneaky, but true. His winds do not yet reflect the depth of his pressure as he is so large and it takes longer for the intensity to work it's way completely into the storm in a way that it can be measured properly.

So, it is really in ways a Cat 2 yet it is still a Cat 1 officially.

Back in college when studying International Relations we had to learn how sometimes politics is not really what it looks like on the surface. Officially, a country has a leader but in reality the head of the secret police or a ruler in some band of warriors in the mountains is in fact running the country. Sort of like the drug lords in areas of South America...or Central America so there is the illusion of some leader in charge but he doesn't really have the power.

Very similar here with Alex who should be treated as a Cat 2 but won't be upgraded until they can officially upgrade it. In fact some even think it can be a Cat 3 at landfall, which I am not sure of but possible.

A beautiful storm to watch, would be fun to be where Abrams is on the beach right now but I would not want to be in some small village in Mexico that might be washed away in a flash flood.

So, for now enjoy his beauty. Tomorrow we will talk about his beast like side.

Bear with me, will post pictures later... am on a new computer system that is not cooperating this morning any more than the radar was on the recon planes last night ;)

Besos Bobbi
Ps... look for some eye wall replacement cycle to try and take place today prior to landfall.

Check out this link.... for an awesome view

Music :)

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Hurricane Alex --- First Hurricane of the 2010 Hurricane Season--- Is Bonnie Coming Off of Africa?

Hurricane Alex is now the first hurricane of the 2010 Hurricane Season. An official statistic for this late night post that is worthy of noting.

Also worthy of noting is that it is possible that he will intensify some more before coming onshore just south of the Border on the beaches of Mexico. Just exactly where will be pinned down tomorrow. The South Texas Coast from Brownsville to Corpus Christi will have strong bands of weather as the outer bands of this growing hurricane will slam into the beaches of the Texas coast. With a storm this big... it will affect a lot of people far from the center via possible twisters and flooding rains.
(Building a Mystery....)

Great song, love it. Always think of it when watching a storm like this pull itself together towards a climatic moment down the road and a date with destiny. He's one for the books in a long season of many more hurricanes to dance across the surface of the globe and to be photographed by satellites far up in the heavens beamed down to forecasters and trackers on Planet Earth.

And.... a really beautiful wave just rolled off of Africa over the beaches of Dakar... could that be Bonnie?

Building a mystery.... as a storm swirls and builds its inner core.

Sweet Tropical Dreams... Besos Bobbi

Forecasting Nightmare for Alex...

Given the current situation in the Gulf you have a forecasting nightmare that is beginning to remind me of Irene.

In this case, pulling together into a strong hurricane might be better than what I am seeing unfolding on the sat loops is a bad situation going into a holiday weekend.

You can't keep just tracking the center when the storm is tossing off storm balls towards the Tx/La coast. When all the weather from Alex is streaming north with weather that is definitely within tropical depression standards. That's some pretty strong weather being hurdled at the Northern Gulf Coast and the storm itself may turn left like the track shows but the coast of Tx/La is going to suffer some strong weather and that strong weather is moving closer and closer to oil affected beaches.

This is not Floyd turning before hitting Miami and WPB and being a tightly wound storm.

This is more of an Irene mess with a weather mass and a small center.

In this case... Alex pulling it all together into a stronger storm might be the best case scenario rather than the problems I am seeing unfolding on the WV loop.

The NHC may have to face posting some sort of strong weather warning for an area in the Central Gulf, even if the center of Alex moves WNW towards Brownsville, Texas.

Or....Alex wraps into a Category 2 Hurricane and pulls all the weather back into her eye wall and moves towards some nice unpopulated beach in the Tex/Mex area.

As always with hurricanes... only time will tell..

Besos Bobbi
Ps... be back later as I have company in from out of town and showing them around the town while tracking on my blackberry ;)

Monday, June 28, 2010

Alex Intensifying Into a Hurricane... Moving North Slowly

Moving very slowly and that movement takes it further into the Gulf where it can intensify into a much stronger storm. Look at that green core at it's center, building a hurricane, a cdo, a core... a place where an eye will pop out tomorrow.

Stalled hurricanes are a pain for forecasters, because as the steering currents collapse or wind up you are never 100% sure which road it will take. It's reality TV live and happening in front of your eyes. Very fluid, every movement in one direction changes the track, every movement of another weather feature (stalled high or waning trough) creates a new change in an very dynamic puzzle with moving pieces in a never ending atmospheric ballet.

For now he is moving to the north, his models are shifting a bit to the right(EAST) and yet we still expect him to make a turn to the left and move towards the South Texas coastline.

Time will tell. For now I am going to listen to the thunder and watch some loops showing off his brand, newly found core and I'll be back tomorrow with more details in this ongoing storm saga.

I said the other day Brownsville... still think that's a pretty good bet for now, unless Alex takes off faster to the north in which case I'll have to think about that tomorrow.

Besos Bobbi
Sweet Tropical Dreams...

Sunday, June 27, 2010

New Models In...

and the beat goes on....

one goes this way....mexico

the other one goes this way .... La/Tx border

Keep watching...

Alex... First Storm in the Season From Hell

Welcome to 2010, the year with conditions that are near perfect for tropical development. Warm water, upper level highs in all the right places and El Nino has run off for a long sabbatical. SAL is down, high is in place and Alex is the first of many storms to drive forecasters and trackers crazy.

So many loops to loop. Here is a long 24 hour loop:

If there is a theme song for the Summer of 2010 this would definitely have to be it! From the Great Eddie and the Cruisers ;)

A recent discussion from the NHC shows how much uncertainty there is in the track of Alex.



1. Alex is still over land. Hard to predict how fast it is moving and hard to tell how it will change when it hits the water. We assume it will spin up fast again but that's assuming and we all know that all saying.

2. There is a strong ULL to it's ENE, an eroding ridge to it's north and the steering currents are not set in stone.

3. Models disagree. Really? Wow... like who knew lol. Seriously, they often disagree as we know and until one wins out and works in tandem with a moving storm over water we watch and we wait.

4. Climo sort of goes out the window this year or so it would seem so hard to rely on what is favorable and what is not for a June storm.

Good link to watch...

Beautiful to watch it spin.

Also, am worrying on a new upper level low that might be forming to it's north. Might being the salient word in that sentence.

I still want to say easy money takes it on the Road to Brownsville as I said the other day but would not count anything out until we see the core back over water.

Besos Bobbi
ps.. back much later when we have some real info... lost in loops talking to friends online.

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Tropical Storm Alex Makes Landfall in Belize 65 MPH Winds

Look at that pinwheel storm above... and the wider picture below..

Not convinced that his winds were not closer to 70mph when he made landfall.

Alex is an amazingly beautiful, large, well put together Tropical Storm that is so large his structure stretches from the Pacific into the Caribbean. He is so strong that he basically blew Hurricane Darby out of the water and the former Category 3 Hurricane one day ago is now a shadow of it's former self and eclipsed by the large structure of Tropical Storm Alex.

With fantastic upper level support Alex bloomed today into a strong tropical storm just barely below Hurricane strength. With breathtaking outflow and feeder bands that fed the developing core... he was amazing to watch and a coming attraction to what this hurricane season holds down the line.

For now the official track keeps Alex low and on a date with destiny in the borderlands of Texas and Mexico. But, the Brownsville or Bust scenario may have a few kinks down the road to smooth out before writing off a landfall further up towards the Texas-Louisiana border.

There are some indications that if he does not take off like a bat out of hell for Mexico he could stall a bit over very hot water in the Gulf of Mexico. That scenario could produce a major hurricane. A track faster and further south would drive him into Mexico as a weak tropical storm.

And, remember this about feeder bands... they feed the storm and right now his bands dip down into the Pacific as well as pulling in Carib moisture.

So, despite being over land he is still sucking warm tropical moisture into his heart and soul. And, I do think he is moving faster than the projected speed.

So, when we wake up in the morning... we will see what we will see.

Posting a few pics and the models to show that until we get further down the road nothing here is set in stone.

A really incredible, beautiful image was posted tonight on

Like a big, blue present wrapped up and tied with ribbons. Love it. This is what you miss when you just watch the nightly news or the Tropical Update on The Weather Channel.

Online tracking and friendships cannot get any better than this :)

Is that an awesome picture... tells the whole story really...

I'm going off... after I stare a little longer at Alex and ... Darby... or what is left of Darby.

What a love story... meteorologicaly mad one anyway... I mean well Darby just fizzle out or send some moisture Alex's way?

Can't say right now but as all love stories start they start way back when. And, this is as way back when as it gets for the 2010 Hurricane Season.

It's only June they said... but June was not too soon for this year!

Besos Bobbi and thank you... you know who you are..

Friday, June 25, 2010

Tropical Depression #1 "Born" at 6pm... Season is officially here.........

After what seems like the longest birth in recent history Tropical Depression #1 was born just east of Honduras moving to the wnw at 10 mph.

Now the real work begins, because with the data from the recon planes we can get much more reliable model forecasts. And, so far the models differ widely with some taking it into the Gulf after passing over the Yucatan Peninsular towards Texas and others curve their tracks back towards the north and north east towards the Oily beaches already plagued by tar to possibly even the Panhandle of Florida.

As always time will tell and the new data will give us a better idea and it gives the people at the NHC the best data to start their calculations with... one thing you can rely on is that they always have your back covered. No one works harder than the NHC when it comes to looking after our welfare. Really. I mean that.

Now, IF you were on message boards with experts from all walks of meteorological life you would get cool graphics like this as the planes are doing criss crosses in the Caribbean looking for a center of circulation to name a new Tropical Depression.

Such is the life of chasers, trackers and weather enthusiasts. And, professional mets live it at work and live it in their sleep at home... if indeed they sleep. I've stayed up many a night talking to someone waiting for the 2am advisories to come in.

So... stayed tuned for a possible upgrade to Tropical Storm Alex or watch TD 1 cruise along on it's trip to the Yucatan and ports of call farther away down the tropical road.

Will it be a "Road to Brownsville" or a "Road to Panama Beach" flick? Only time will tell... the way... my second area of interest is still yellow and has increased odds now of possibly turning into a designated system. As in if the above is Alex... my Bonnie lies over the ocean ;)but we will cross that tropical bridge when we come to it...

Have a great weekend, doing whatever you enjoy doing and I'll be back here tomorrow night with more detailed information.

Truth is.... looks like it could be quite a spinner, it's beginning to get a look...

Besos Bobbi
Ps... it's still a minimal Tropical Depression still interacting with land so let's not get Hype Crazy and worried just yet, but we definitely need to keep an eye on it because it will raise up the Crisis In the Gulf Media Watch and while watching... keep an eye on that beautiful wave that just came off of Africa...

70% chance of Development in Carib, New Area of Interest in Atlantic

The red circle chances of this to become Alex are up to 70% and a new area of interest is in the Atlantic northeast of the Leeward Islands... well ene? This has been a real ongoing mess with this area of disturbed weather in the Carib that seems to need a shrink and a heart more than a hurricane hunter. Possibly it's the Tin Man in disguise because it doesn't seem very impressive. A poster on described it perfectly, an "impressive mess" and that it is... annoying and pissant but worthy of an invest and the NHC sees it worthy of sending in the planes.

There is an area in the Atlantic that is interacting with an upper level low and putting on quite a show. I mentioned it earlier, the NHC mentioned it this morning and gave it a yellow circle. Keep watching it.

There is a lunar eclipse this weekend, just a gut feeling that something will light the wick and a keg somewhere will explode, tropical keg and we will get the season off to an official start with the first advisory.

East Pacific has been hot, beautiful storm out there with a beautiful eye and often it's hard to get things going in the Carib when the East Pac is spinning. And, lastly everyone has said that this Carib wave has two centers vying for control and on the latest imagery we see the second back part firing up again so we are still in watch and wait mode.

Have a great weekend and I imagine I will be back later today with some sort of update after the adorable men go up in their flying machines and do their scientific studies and drop their delightful dropsondes..

Besos Bobbi
Ps... I have been told to "ignore the yellow circle" and well I don't want to. A bit tropically bored and anything that wants to act up out there has my attention. I mean maybe if I was allowed a seat IN the plane not just in the official van I could ignore the yellow circle but alas... from my vantage point it is fun to watch!

Can you ignore it totally? And, by the way...note the back part of 93 L must be doing some sort of Zumba cause it really has it's @ss in motion today... but the planes are going to ignore that because well it's not the part of the wave they are investigating.. you know... got to love tropical weather ;)

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Still Playing Possum---Watching Mid-Atlantic Wave

Well, I have taken a break from watching the Carib and I am watching a wave out in the Atlantic that has stolen my attention and possibly my heart this morning.

You can see it out there starting a roll on this long loop. A lot of dry air but it's hanging in there..

Meanwhile our current Carib wave has an orange circle around it and is holding at a 40% chance of forming. Hey NHC said that not me ;)

News story on the Keys and Oil:

"so far so good"

My minds in the Keys these days.... got to get back to the Keys... all I can think on at times...

They make an excellent Hurricane Section with loads of info and local color:

As for me.... I'm going to do some writing, watch some loops and listen to one of my favorite songs....

Funky world we live in these days.... til Alex forms... all bets are off..

Besos Bobbi

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The Invisible Storm...

This is one of those situations where the models see something that we don't see... or they are simply wrong.

Models are best at predicting tracks of systems that have a verifiable center. Often they are good at predicting development, especially when so many models come together and agree on development.

Meanwhile, the messy wave or set of waves is simmering around on a back burner in the Caribbean trying to find the center that is obvious on model projections but not happening in real life.

Below are a few links showing various models and the possible landfall of the possible tropical system.

A few meteorological forecast links:

That last one is the scenario from hell and a replay of a Hurricane Audrey which was a strong late June storm that hit the Cameron area in La. Just one of many but an A storm in late June, a similar but different track. Books are filled with similar storms, one nice thing about message boards online is you learn more than you could learn sometimes in a Meteorology 101 class... dynamics and historic tracks, great places to learn more about Tropical Cyclones.

I don't know... I do know even an astrologist friend of mine pointed out that June 26th,

A few sample astrological forecasting links:

So, why am I bringing astrology into this mess? Because oddly both are mathematical forecasts at this point, based on historic patterns.

I don't know... time will tell.

Bad weather has often been associated with Celestial weather or events.

Some attribute tragedies to comets appearing in the sky.

Some scientists are trying to connect solar flares with hurricane development.

The truth is pick your science or your pseudoscience and pick your poison because until something down in the Caribbean forms... the storm is obviously Invisible and unless someone can use an uncloaking device.... we are waiting for this storm to develop. Until it does, this is like pre-production publicity and have seen a lot of that and yet the filming never begins...but this isn't the film industry it's Tropical Weather happening in real time.

Can so many indicators be wrong?

Smiling.... we call it a weather FORECAST because it's not for sure ... duh ;)

I really want to go blonde this summer... can't decide, only time will tell...

Tomorrow should be a telling day ...

Besos Bobbi

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Tropical Formation Happening In the Carib... greatest show on earth...

Watching a tropical system come together, for weather fanatics, is the greatest show in Earth. Even more exciting and mesmerizing than watching a Category 3 Hurricane spinning.

It's a tropical stew, slowly bubbling, congealing... sort of like a good gumbo. I know I have said this at least once before, but it is true. So many ingredients must be just perfect for the formation of a tropical system. And, that formation seems to be happening before our eyes in the Carib south of Haiti as I write this blog.

As I write this blog weather friends are staring at satellite loops in the corner of their computer or tapping back and forth on their IPhone to see the latest image streaming in from a weather satellite taking picture perfect images high up in the atmosphere and beaming them to our computers and cell phones as we go upon our daily life.

What a world we live in... sort of like watching a Meteorological Burn Notice, a Reality Show to beat all Reality Shows.

And..........this one has a scary edge to it in that it is causing flooding rains in Haiti and some models show it making a bee line to the Oil Spill in the Gulf. A worst, worst case scenario might be developing. Or, it could chug a lug wnw into Texas somewhere and the far western Gulf of Mexico just missing the Loop Current and the Oily Miasma that has taken over our National Attention.

This summer most of America will become weather fanatics as they watch with morbid fascination as tropical systems will be aimed at the Gulf of Mexico like bowling balls, one after another.

This may be the summer of our tropical obsession... as all of our worst case scenarios will play out live on the Internet and our televisions.

What if an Oil Rig exploded in the Gulf just before the worst hurricane season in years?

What if indeed... When you are talking about weather all the "what ifs" so often come together.

Record heat, tragic twisters and historic flash floods have crippled the heartland this year so far, and the next step in the this process is Apocalyptic scenario is rapidly exploding hurricanes aimed at beaches already dealing with the largest oil spill in history in our part of the world. It's as if P. T. Barnum wrote this screenplay.

Technically speaking here... the Invest now known as 93 is moving into an area of more favorable conditions and the models are playing with it like a five year old discovering Lego.

Another apocalyptic model:

Of course some are playing fantasy cane with it and exploding it into a major hurricane shooting the oil wells in the Gulf and slamming it into Ms/Al and the Florida Panhandle. Unless this scenario shows up a few more times I think we can hold off on the mass hysteria but do not take your eyes off of it. Models have been known to daydream storms into development that never pull their act together.

NHC's official salient paragraph just put out this morning:

Note the use of the words "could" and "appear" to cover their bases if it does not form.

A good link to load and watch is this one:

When green appears in that red area... we will have a Go for Lift Off on Tropical Development and what most likely will be an Alex to remember...

Good site to watch is and their sat page below as this system is currently affecting their part of the world.

Jim Williams did an excellent tropical update at late last night and as always he will stay on top of any changes in this area of disturbed weather.

So.... keep watching and I'll be watching right along with you at Hurricane Harbor.

Be well and stay safe,

Besos Bobbi

Sunday, June 20, 2010

2 Yellow Circles.... Like Showdown at the OK Corral?

I don't know... two circles, models doing kinky things and nothing yet showing it's face so just mentioning there are two Invests up and will see tomorrow morning who is left standing.

Word has it that something starts happening on Tuesday... will see how it looks tomorrow.

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. Bobbi

Friday, June 18, 2010

Watching Waves and Wicked Weather

Watching the wave today as it cruises towards the islands. It's still a big wave and because of that you have to watch the whole wave axis to see where if anywhere it actually develops. I would say the northern track is out of the question, but I don't think anything is out of the question this summer. And, yes it sure feels like summer doesn't it?

IF it would have developed I could see it being pulled up more in latitude, but since it hasn't I would guess it will shoot through into the Caribbean and be a real possible problematic weather maker later next week as it nears the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch the high setting up in the Carib to see how far west it goes as opposed to being lifted up towards the Gulf where conditions may favor development.

Meanwhile, if you gaze at the world above you'll see the real weather is up in the American Mid-west. Watching NE Iowa this morning and wondering how much bad weather my son may get in Postville later today.

Three people are dead in Minnesota this morning as the system that was in Oklahoma and moved into Arkansas has moved towards the NE by way of the Plains. A lot to think on as to the coming hurricane season and how the patterns are setting up and the hurricane season is coming really soon. Summer Solstice is coming up too, just realized that. In thinking out loud mode today.

So, watching a breeze here ripple a few of the branches outside and wondering if I will get weather anytime soon. My younger son now is able to forecast weather faster than his older brother as he has two steel metal weather indicators in his arm from that accident this past January. He's a human weather man... amazing.

So, as my Shuky watches the radars in Postville I'm going to worry less about Puerto Rico today and plan what I am making for Shabbos tonight.

Question is...where do I want to spend the summer solstice? Key West seems far away right now...

Again a very bad weather system that has caused misery wherever it went this past week is back on the center screen for more action today.

Whatever you do this weekend, make it a good and enjoy the weather... or put on a good Jimmy Buffett CD and pretend you are partying away in the islands somewhere.

Besos Bobbi

Thursday, June 17, 2010

June Vacation....

Having a June Vacation here with my youngest son. We are having some quality time here, watching Burn Notice 24/7 (what is that? Does USA show anything else) and watching all our favorite watering holes on TV. I can almost taste a real cafecito from my favorite bodega off of Washington Avenue and Lincoln Road... or feel the breeze at Dinner Key under a palm tree.

Speaking of breezes... that tropical wave bombed out and it's still swimming along towards Hispaniola and Cuba and the Florida Keys as I type this...

We watched the Tropical Update but alas I am not into systems in the EPAC so we went back to Burn Notice. I love it! I remember standing on that Beach behind the cabanas by Noel...anyway.

The wave is down to Yellow, it could be more active in a few days and needs to be watched until it crashes on some beach in South America like the other African wave.

So, sort of on a vacation here with the youngest son... I'll be back when something is happening on the sats and not just on the television. Hey, we saw a scene filmed behind his school and on the steps of my father's old office and CocoWalk and down the block from where we used to live... love it... like watching moving images of my childhood and well... very Miami really!!


Besos Bobbi

Would I love to be on Lincoln Road Mall right now... no... Bayside, definitely Bayside...

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Tropically Blue

Feeling a bit tropically blue today. Might need some sort of tropical drink by the end of the day with some pineapple spear or a little umbrella in it.

If this wave is any indicator of how this season goes it's going to be quite annoying.

There, not there, sort of there, there again, where is there?

Hard to count it out, yet it looks like it is giving up the Ghost of Dreams of Alex and yet not sure. On one hand it has a better circulation going for it, on the other hand it has lost it's convection.

Strong headwinds, a huge high is pressing down, strong storms in the mid part of the country and would give the northern part of the Tropical Atlantic an A for effort and the lower half of the Tropical Atlantic a C for Climatology.

Which leaves us with a B overall, B- perhaps.

The moisture in the Gulf of Mexico is the "dirty side" of the Upper Level Low that is spinning in the Gulf. The dirty side is referred to as the side that attracts rain and moisture like a butterfly plant attracts bees. But, nothing tropical going on at the surface though it looks a bit menacing.

As for me... I am going to go to stretch class and hope the kinks in my neck and my mood get worked out a bit and if that doesn't work... there is always another option in my bag of options. Might love it when a plan comes together, but if it doesn't come together there is always Plan B.

Besos Bobbi

Tropically Blue

Feeling a bit tropically blue today. Might need some sort of tropical drink by the end of the day with some pineapple spear or a little umbrella in it.

If this wave is any indicator of how this season goes it's going to be quite annoying.

There, not there, sort of there, there again, where is there?

Hard to count it out, yet it looks like it is giving up the Ghost of Dreams of Alex and yet not sure. On one hand it has a better circulation going for it, on the other hand it has lost it's convection.

Strong headwinds, a huge high is pressing down, strong storms in the mid part of the country and would give the northern part of the Tropical Atlantic an A for effort and the lower half of the Tropical Atlantic a C for Climatology.

Which leaves us with a B overall, B- perhaps.

The moisture in the Gulf of Mexico is the "dirty side" of the Upper Level Low that is spinning in the Gulf. The dirty side is referred to as the side that attracts rain and moisture like a butterfly plant attracts bees. But, nothing tropical going on at the surface though it looks a bit menacing.

As for me... I am going to go to stretch class and hope the kinks in my neck and my mood get worked out a bit and if that doesn't work... there is always another option in my bag of options. Might love it when a plan comes together, but if it doesn't come together there is always Plan B.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

INVEST 92 ---- BIG Tropical Wave wants to get a name

Watching what might be the beginning of the birth of the first Tropical Depression of the 2010 year... might being the operative word here.

And, I am not the only one watching it. Have a whole slew of tropically inspired friends up late on a Saturday Night watching this link and others.

Very nice looking wave. Big, huge... has the beginning of banding and what looks like a heart. Time will tell. It's late on a Saturday night, see how it looks tomorrow morning. In the meantime I am going to sit a spell and watch and talk to some friends online.

Very hot in the Deep South... unusually hot for this time of year. Hot and heavy and the air just hangs like a big question mark for what is coming next this summer. Flash floods in Arkansas have killed a lot of people... close to 20 now with people still missing and the toll has been high on old people and babies unable to grab a hold of tree limbs like the survivors who rode out the tragic event for up to five hours before they were able to find a measure of safety.

The wave is very low, but very big and those low, big waves that start to pull north can sometimes avoid negative conditions and come out winners in the end. If they, like the people clinging to trees in a flash flood can hold on..

Where would it go? Well, seeing as it is an "invest" they have some possible tracks.

another presentation from one of my favorite cities :)

Personally, I wish it would get a designation.. just a TD 1 would be fine. That number 92 makes me nervous, every time I see it all I can think of is...well you know another storm from this list whose name was retired. Different wave, different time of year and just my own little mental image connected to 92 screams tropical.

And, what's the official word from the NHC?

15 MPH."

So...we wait and watch and see what does or doesn't develop.

And, watching the news on the flash flood and the more recent severe weather in Indy.

Have to say one thing here... weather happens. Climo gets studied, but weather happens fast and often too fast to react.

I read a lot of criticism about the parents of the young girl trying to sail around the world. This was a yacht that had on it the latest, best electronic, meteorological equipment that money could buy. She sailed before she walked. She's one tough girl and her parents made a judgement call that to them seemed a no brainer, they had faith in her and that was their way of life.

A world away people take their kids, babies... camping in secluded parks, far away places and park their campers by river beds and rely on weather reports much like the sailing girl did and does anyone ask if those parents were right or wrong to take small children out into an area where danger could come to them? No, of course not. And, I wonder why the double standard? Probably more people get into accidents camping around America than sailing around the world. And, I heard it said that people camping in remote areas should keep a weather radio handy... have to tell you that's one of the stupidest things I have ever heard because in reality if you are camping so far away, in a secluded spot chances are your weather radio does not get a signal. Chances are your cell phones don't get a signal unless you have one fantastic cell phone.

Two summers ago I was riding with my son through corn fields in Iowa, cornstalks were bending like they were doing the Watusi, clouds were so low you could touch them and my cellphone would not keep a signal and the weather radio was deader than a doornail, we were between transmitters. The weather report showed possibly severe weather and that was right... a tornado touched down to the north of us. It's a long four hour ride from Postville to the airport in St. Paul. But, aside from a momentary phone call from my hysterical brother in Miami who was watching TWC from the safety of his air-conditioned home in Miami and watching them show the line of severe storms we had no real notice of impending bad weather or funnel clouds.

To people who love to camp, hike and spend vacation time far away in the forest, in a ravine near a river it's a no brainer... it's safe, it's serene and they are as close to heaven as you can get.

We all choose our hobbies, we all pick our poisons... safety is an illusion.

Seems the sailing girl was safer and more able to call for help than the average hiking family in the Appalachian Trail on a summer afternoon or any trail.

And....there is no where you can go that does not have some sort of dangerous weather. Be it windstorm or dust storm or tropical storm... weather is what unites us and connects us... we complain about it, we laugh about it and we cry about it.

Weather happens... we do the best we can .... we take chances... we live and we love to share our weather stories.

As for me... going to bed and will look at the wave tomorrow morning.

And, may I say I would take Miami heat and humidity any day over heavy, hot, hazy days in the deep south... I'm a beach girl, give me a beach, a breeze or the beautiful low country and that is where I am in heaven.

Sweet Tropical Dreams... Bobbi

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

NHC Awards Yellow Circle to Caribbean Cruiser Tropical Wave

However, even though they put it up on their site they give it a zero percent chance of forming? I'm a bit confused here ...why bother??? Well, it's there way of saying "Head's Up Islands, you are in for some nasty weather!!!"

Or....they could be covering their governmental asses as it seems the wave has possibilities if it survives the John Hope Wind Tunnel of Shear in the Eastern Carib.

Usually a system not formed going into the Carib would not get the NHC's attention publically but shear is forecast to drop and some model's want it to come out and play.

Will see... just a heads up here and a statement of fact... got a Yellow Circle up in the Carib. For tropical information on the Carib always go to and follow the links to satellites or to read reports from people in the islands.

As for me, got things to do today, people to see, "stuff" to plan and going to listen to the incredible Mills Brothers as their song is most definitely in my mind today while watching news from yesterday's elections and following the saga of the BP Oil Spill From Hell ... DAY 50....

Besos Bobbi

Saturday, June 05, 2010

South Beach Slammed By Flooding Rainstorm... Again

This happens again and again on South Beach, the only difference is how long it takes for the waters to recede.

I understand it's just above sea level, honest... been there.. lived there, worked there.. grew up there. But, at some point unless you are BP you find an option, a way to stop the problem. The town of Sweetwater in West Dade County used to have this problem and they worked at solving it. Sweetwater is basically in the Everglades and also just above sea level yet they worked at finding solutions.

What I find interesting is that somewhere between the watery start of the Miami Rainy Season and the dumping of water out of the Lake this always happens on Miami Beach. One problem is that the Bay and Indian Creek are at record high levels when they do the dumping. This is said from my own observation on a daily basis, even before the rains hit South Beach. Every day in Miami the storms form over the Everglades and they make their way slowly east falling on whichever area gets the rain. After years of growing up in Southwest Miami I missed the daily rainstorms when my parents moved to Miami Beach. You can go days on Miami Beach and not get a storm because the storms form and move ENE and land on North Miami Beach or ESE and land on Coral Gables...days go by and Miami Beach is dry until one forms and goes due east and slams into a sea breeze and Miami Beach gets the brunt of a strong rain storm.

And, many times when it wasn't raining and they were dumping the water level in the Bay and the Creek climbed higher and higher.. once it was blamed on a tropical storm that had long since cruised past South Florida and hmmmnnn only seemed to affect South Beach and Indian Creek..

There are real people who live on Miami Beach, not just tourists and we know when something smells fishy besides the Bay. It's easier to sweep up the water and pray it goes back into the Bay then it is do to something about it. If the little town of Sweetwater... could get a hold of Government money and make a plan.. I think that the good Commissioners of Miami Beach who are used to dining at all the local hot spots and usually busy complaining about what color a house is or isn't painted and whether or not they put out samples of food on Lincoln Road vs using plastic fake food could get their act together and help the people who live here all year and are every year inundated by floods the moment one good storm hits the area.

I interviewed a woman last year who is a bank teller in a Wachovia Bank on Miami Beach, her home near Monad Terrace was flooded, she lost everything in the house and two cars. She told me she used to worry on the Hurricane Season, after last year's flood she no longer worries on the Hurricane Season. She worries now on the rainy season.

Next time it rains like this on Miami Beach.. try parking on Alton Road and wading into Whole Foods and wade through the puddles to grab some fresh berries and hope and pray the flooding in Whole Foods is not so bad that they had to close the store... most of the locals just take off their flip flops and walk through the water... which I am sure is not the safest thing to do health wise but well the City of Miami Beach does not seem to have come up with any solutions better than that...

I find it hard to believe there is not some correlation between the dumping and the flooding and the dumping of the water is nice but... a few years it came back to haunt them when storms formed and didn't come anywhere near South Florida and we were in drought mode by October..

Hope Miami Beach gets a chance to dry out tomorrow and hope they can one day find a solution to cleaning up the drains and/or getting the water pumped out faster.

The lady... Marcia who is in the video that was stuck on South Beach is an old friend of mine.. know how she feels, been there...

Besos and Good Night.. Bobbi

ps..watching the wave in the Atlantic that may or may not try and pull together..

Friday, June 04, 2010

Weekly Round Up and Thoughts on Oil and Hurricanes

This is how the tropics look today, our side of the world...the Atlantic Tropical View.

Nothing new out there today, just a westbound tropical wave far out in the Eastern Atlantic. Some models actually keep this wave together, intact and affecting the Leeward or Windwards next weekend. Time will tell. An Atlantic crossing for a tropical wave this time of year is a hard feat to accomplish, but this year the Atlantic is primed for early development. Very hot water, low shear and SAL is staying high and not sucking the moisture out of the ever present tropical waves. So, let's pretend this is early July and not early June when looking at those westbound waves.

The Gulf is quiet... the Carib is still quiet.

Enjoy the peace and quiet, because it's not going to last forever. We live in the real world here at Hurricane Harbor and we deal with what is, what could be and what we can do to prepare for a landfalling hurricane.

As for the weekly roundup...

Tropical Cyclone Phet affected the Indian Ocean that has come alive with possibilities and development.

And, a lot of crazy, wild weather has been moving east as we are still in a sort of zonal flow as air masses clash between alternating hot and cold air masses, the result being very loud booming thunderstorms complete with flooding rains. And, it is very hot everywhere from the Carolinas to South Florida.

And....on the OIL FRONT.... these are just my thoughts... after witnessing the sad tragedy unfold on the news as tar balls the size of Frisbees are washing up onto Florida beaches now is that "not fair" or what? Florida did not want the platforms but states are allowed to make their own decisions even though they share the same beaches and tidal patterns. Does that make sense? Shouldn't that be more a Federal decision? And, I'm a big believer in States Rights but this is not right..

What are we doing to our Planet... our beaches, our air ...our future?

We have embarked on the last several decades of trying not to confront problems that were ticking time bombs. This is not a case of "closing the barn door after the horse has left the stable" this is about a blinking sign that flashed on and off "warning, warning the horse is leaving the stable" and everyone waited for someone else to do something or hoped it would not happen on their watch.

We have a satellite that was one of the premier tools of the marriage between meteorology and space exploration and we let it die a slow death...watching it die like a slow train wreck and yet nothing was designed to replace it before it died.

Worse case scenario for New Orleans was a levee failure due to a hurricane making landfall in that region yet we waited until after the levee broke to figure out how to fix it. We hoped it would happen on someone else's watch... or we argued who was responsible... the mayor..the Governor...the President...

Offshore drilling carried with it its worst case scenario and yet we pretended to believe that the big men with the big suits on and all the money would have solutions.

A category ONE hurricane hit the Miami area and the entire grid of FPL's decayed telephone poles and rotten wires came crashing down and the substations system collapsed like over boiled spaghetti. They made a fortune during those years when no storm hit the South Florida area yet they wanted levees put onto customers to repair the grid that was not maintained properly when they had those easy days.

As a society we are not looking at the big picture but trying to make it to work and home again without having to DO anything to deal with the bigger problems.

This is not a problem the Republicans have created or that the Democrats have created but a problem that we have all created and all tried to ignore.

This hurricane season as tar balls the side of Frisbees are washing up on the beaches that we know so well and are usually covered by teams of reporters upon a hurricane's landfall. And, seagulls are now coated in oil and this is a tragedy, a disaster.

Except this problem was man made..based on greed and a refusal to deal with the associated problems that we knew might happen someday.

Well...someday is here...

Hoping that this problem helps us look into ourselves to see what we have done to not use alternative clean fuels, not voted for better leaders who know how to take control and not make excuses and pass the bucket. To not believe in Corporate America or Corporate anything to protect the little man, the small beautiful beaches and pelicans coated in blood colored oil.

America needs to wake up and smell the proverbial coffee and take responsibility for how we make decisions and who we trust.

And, we need to do it fast before whole regions lose their two main economic sources, fishing and tourism. From Grande Isle to Naples the Gulf has some of the most beautiful beaches and water fronts anywhere in the world and ... over a third of our seafood as a nation comes from that part of our country.

So... going to go have some Iced Coffee and get some things set up for Shabbos and the weekend and I'll be back with more tropical coverage later.

Take care and be well...

Besos Bobbi
Pensacola Beach TV News... today Pensacola...tomorrow another beach and another and it's due to be in the Carolinas by July if it is indeed in the Gulfstream... the world is a stream of currents of air and water... we are one world.. something important to remember..

Thursday, June 03, 2010

If there is a hurricane? Larry King asks Obama the Big Question......

This has to the question of the month... "what if there is a hurricane?"

The Oil vs The Hurricane....

Exact Question and Obama's thoughts on the big what if there is a hurricane question..

KING: Have the scientists discussed, what about a hurricane?

OBAMA: I had a Situation Room meeting about a week and a half ago, where we got the report that this could be a more severe than normal hurricane season. I asked, well, how does a potential oil spill interact with a hurricane? It turns out that -- now these are all estimations and probabilities -- it turns out that a big, powerful hurricane, ironically is probably less damaging with respect to the oil spill because it just disperses everything and the oil breaks up and degrades more quickly.

It's those tropical storms and tides that would just wash stuff into the marshes that would really be an ecological disaster. But, look, We've got a couple of tasks right now. Number one, BP has to shut down this well. The only guarantee to shut down is the relief well and that's going to take a couple of months. In the meantime we hope that by cutting the riser, putting a cap on this thing, they can funnel up the oil and that will help.

In the meantime we've still got all these barrels of oil that are sloshing around in the Gulf. They move with the currents, we don't always know where they are. But what we can do is make sure that our response doesn't hold anything back. That we put everything we've got into Louisiana, which has been hardest hit so far, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.

We will find that out soon enough... June is not too soon this year....

Sweet tropical dreams... Bobbi

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Obama's Oiloo?

Talking to a friend on this tonight... Waterloo ... Oiloo... same thing...

I've heard it said that La seems to be an administration breaker... not sure.

Just know that all everyone is talking about is the oil... as a metaphor for everything that is broken right now that needs to be fixed...and this is NOT a partisan issue..

Washington is broke in that it has been going on automatic for a long time.

They are having hearings in DC on whether or not to ban peanuts from airplanes. Is that some joke? I mean... does the FAA really need to ban peanuts because some people are allergic to them? What is next egg products?

Our government has gotten so big and so unable to handle this it makes you worry on what will happen this coming hurricane season...

Good discussion on the boards... lots of boards, every weather site in town is covering the leak as if it is a weather event..

Look at the home page of Intellicast .... Oil Spill Map.

Time to start making changes in our energy sources, in the way we care for this planet and for the way we do business in Washington... we need more options.

For now until something more wicked comes this way...this is the story of the Year...

And... best case scenario is to flow through August during a busy hurricane season..

Going to bed... going to try not to dream of oil balls in my sleep.

Besos Bobbi
Ps...did not know I was a verb, hmmmmm... never thought on it before...

Jim William's Picks from Hurricane City for Possible Landfalls in 2010

Jim Williams gave his kick off show last night and posted his picks for the 2010 Hurricane Season. The picture above is from my computer... that is what you would have seen had you been watching and you can watch by going to his site and downloading it after reading this blog. I know, I know.. you thought it was Apollo 13 right? Come on tell the truth... smiling... just they do sort of look like they are up there in outer space in a meteorology lab don't they...

What you might not know is he has been extremely accurate the last few years, many of his top city picks were hit by a named tropical storm or hurricane. He has this whole formula that is mathematical and complicated and very precise....and often very accurate. He has an uncanny way of picking the areas that will be in the path of danger.

A lot of other reports focus on numbers... vague predictions of how many named storms or major hurricane we will get but Jim tries to highlight areas that are statistically overdue and who have patterns that compel you to watch them this year. And, we are not talking... kinda sort of maybe a few hundred miles close to a city but within 60 miles.

His #1 pick for this year is VERO BEACH... Ft. Lauderdale, Miami and the Bahamas come in real high as well. Watch the show for yourself online and see all of his picks and the reasons he gives for why he picked them.

Become a member and then when you get your password log in and listen and you will be happy you did!

Check it out for yourself...and while there feel free to donate to keeping this amazing site going strong. This year is forecast to be a bad year in the tropics and when things pop in the tropics they are used to Jim's site being there providing information. I'm on the message board that his site hosts with the help from an amazing few people who keep the board operating properly... thank you Chris in Tampa!

Sample post here:

A few great sites around the web but most are run as professional money making sites and nickle and dime you to death with advertisements and links.. Jim's site keeps those to the minimum and relies heavily on support from members and the money and time and effort he puts into it. It's amazing... and worth becoming familiar with before some hurricane becomes familiar with your town and sets a course for your home.

Hurricane City is Jim's website.. it is a community though of people who support and respect Jim and who communicate via message boards and chat rooms. The site itself provides and education on storms that have made history along hurricane coasts. I'm happy to say that I have watched it grow and change and stay on top of the newest trends from on air broadcasting to twitter.

Jim gives the best Tropical Update around... jam packed with info that is hard to get anywhere else.

So...that's my post for the day.

Oh....and Agatha sleeps with the fishies.... and I do think anything that develops in the SW Carib will most likely go into the Pacific for now.

Oil is oozing as you read this and the most recent procedure to cap the flow hit a snag... a real calamity, you'd think a company this big and this rich could figure out a way to do this better.... of course as any Boyscout knows you need to be prepared, shame the people running BP were not taught as well... Jim's site provides a link to the oil cam and other info there as well.

Take care and be well and besos for now...

Ps... nice shirts they have on there :)

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Do Oil and Hurricanes Mix??? Oil Lands on Daulphin Island... May Hit North Florida Beaches Tomorrow

Very sad to think that this oil leak will be leaking oil through August at best case scenario according to BP and if so... how many of our beaches will be affected?

Fishing for commercial or recreational purposes is now prohibited from Morgan City, La to near Naples, Florida.

I can't help but think it sounds like a Tropical Storm Watch... not a fishing prohibition.

This is seriously a mess... and growing messier by the hour.

And, the Atlantic is growing hotter by the day...

Do Oil and Hurricanes Mix? We will find out sooner rather than later the way this hurricane season is setting up.

Night... Bobbi

Welcome to the 2010 Hurricane Season, the season with more questions than answers and more storms than we can imagine ...when it rains it pours and in this case it might be raining oil.....

Start of the 2010 Hurricane Season Begins With A Caribbean Invest

The 2010 Hurricane Season begins with an ominous touch as the remnants of Agatha hover about in the Caribbean balancing on the tip of the Yucatan directly to the south of the largest Oil Spill ever in our history... an oil spill that is still pumping oil into the Gulf of Mexico while billion dollar companies try and come up with a viable plan to stop the spill.

Americans everywhere turn their eyes south today and wonder how a hurricane or even a slow moving tropical storm could affect the oil spill. It has been predicted that Dauphin Island will see oil on Monday if the current winds out of the South do not stop directing it their way.

Aside from the remnants of Agatha, a storm that has already taken over 100 lives in Central America...there is the possibility of a storm forming in the SW Carib and not crossing into the Pacific but moving north...

This time of year a storm in the Gulf can blow up fast and give little warning before affecting the Gulf Coast as they often form close in during the month of June and July and get pulled north by dangling cold fronts.

This year is going to be one mean, nasty year. All the ingredients are in place for a real Hurricane Stew that is brewing as we sit and watch the oil leak endlessly pump oil up into the now very polluted Gulf of Mexico.

Water everywhere is hot, wind shear is forecast to be light and a high pressure cell should be in place that will direct any storms forming east of 60 west to keep chugging west towards the Southeast Coast.

This is not a statement that is made lightly or to just get attention but to bring attention to a problem that even without the oil in the Gulf would be a problematic season at best.

And, when a major Newspaper in Hurricane Country does not even have a front page story on the start of the Hurricane Season...or a story on the front page of the Local Section about the Hurricane Season you have to wonder why people have false illusions to their safety during the Hurricane Season. I am in Raleigh today, the News and Observer could not even put a small story in the corner of the front page about today being the start of the Hurricane Season. Nothing... as if it did not exist. The hurricane season has been banished somewhere that they normally banish NFL football to... far down and out of sight. I have interviewed numerous people around these parts about Floyd and Fran and they all said they were taken by surprise ...that until it was on top of the city it was played down. This city freaks when one snow flake falls.... what would they do if pine trees start falling from the inland effects of a strong hurricane moving NW through the State? I cannot imagine.

As for Miami, my home town... no one takes hurricanes lightly though we love to talk about them. It is more than just the name of our sports team, it is the name of our worst enemy... After Andrew no one in Miami takes hurricanes lightly... after Wilma we remember that even a mild Category 1 storm can rock our world and knock us for a loop.

Where would the remnants of Agatha go if she developed again and became Alex? Look below and know that the NHC only gives it a 10% chance give or take right now.

Keep watching and keep stocking up on whatever your hurricane needs are ..... now is the time to take stock, stock up and lock up the hurricane supplies so that no one blows their weight watchers points on moon pies. Or... oh my is a new thought... buy healthy hurricane snacks ;) this time around.

Besos Bobbi