Great Water Vapor.. Great Caesar's Ghost!
Been up thinking.
You know you are in trouble when you wake up at 5:55 AM on a Sunday morning and you think.. I need to read the 5AM Discussion. As I had just missed the Tropical Update I booted up the computer and sat down with an early morning cup of Joe and started reading posts online. Looping loops. Thinking. Got little goodmorning wake up treats delivered by Chris and Stedwoo at www.hurricanecity.com to play with.. wow.. unreal loops. Love that big screen, whole earth water vapor. Thank you. You do know what turns me on.. don't ya? Well.. understandable.
Anyway...here is my post from Hurricane City and hopefully I caught all the typos which I made while my mind was racing down history's pathways and through odd possibilities on what really will happen with Franklin. But, after looking at that unreal water vapor.. I don't see how he goes out to sea as the high is buckling down fast, dipping and he's either going to get lost in it or... pushed south to warmer waters with a reformed center.
For those of you who think totally out of the box may I add here..there is a mercury retrograde going on. Mechanical things don't work right and often have to be retuned (like computer models) and high's retrograde and.... centers often reform.
Franklin is an oddity in that he sort of formed under the nose of the big high and has sat in it's saddle a bit too long as someone said on the board.. makes the models hard to read him let alone find him. Weeks ago I saw models for this storm and it just sort of popped up in the bottom of the high.. pushed it's way in as a very weak system. Maybe something only a weak system could do.. and now it's being played out. So.. models always saw him doing this.. but they like bad astrologers can't always put into words what they see. You can say.. "planets just shifted into new signs.. " and guess at what that would mean.. but when working with an exception to the rule like Franklin (and this season) you often can get it wrong if you aren't open to options.. possibilities.
Tropical Storms often reform their centers.. merge, play.. a hurricane it ain't. And, there is a big desire this year to treat every system like a potential major. Tropical storms off the coast of Florida (both coasts) tend to reform and ooze around a lot.
Reminds me of that great song, sung and danced by Chris Durning in Best Little Whorehouse in Texas.. Ooooooh I like to do a little sidestep.. now you see me, now you don't I've come and gone.. and ooooooooh... yep, great scene.. have never seen anyone do it better even on stage.
So... what will Franklin do?
Don't know.. but something kinky and wierd is happening with the left side of that storm.
An ULL is jumping around over Florida. The circulation or storms blown off of Frank are oozing over into the ULL and there is some quirky swirls forming on it's western edge. A visible center to it's northeast just where the NHC wants to put down the cords but where is the weather? Would worry with a weak, odd shaped system that has already survived by going south once ... where a new center will pop up. Gert, beautiful on the sats (prettier than I thought she could ever be) is moving west for now... away.. wnw..
High is pressing down strong.. can Frank hold on and get himself out of this mess?
I know I will be.
I love this site. Use it often ...
Gives you a great handle on possibilities and probabilities.
All day yesterday I kept reading something on the weather patterns of the 30s. Dirty 30s to some... and thought how if we had that set of weather systems today we would be on the cover of every magazine today with doomstay articles about GLOBAL WARMING 2005.
But... there was no such thing as Global Warming back in 1935 though I believe a lot of preachers did blame the weather patterns of that year on people and their evil ways and a sign from God to change those evil ways. (yes going to listen to Santana today)
Back in 1900.. the book about the Galveston storm makes it clear that weather was bizarre that year and people were blaming it on other things.
Comets were blamed often. Weather wierdness was blamed on Hailey's Comet.
One could say my marriage was irretrievably broken due to the passage of Hale-Bopp through my life. Well, you know.. playing here.
Truth is.. scientists always want someone to blame someone or something.
Being left brain and analytical is good but sometimes it blinds you to things someone who is right brain will see and catch. Right brain people go outside the box..find data like little squirrels scurrying around for nuts and then run back and run the new data through their very analytical brains.
Not all analytical people are left brain, many are right (like me) but in the end they take the data.. use the process and evaluate the results.
Read online that when Landsea passed and dropped out of the Global Warming committee because they had arrived at the end game w/o wanting to play the game. Was more about writing press releases and giving good arguements for Global Warming rather than seeing if it had indeed sped up and was taking over.
Can't put the horse before the cart.
Do I believe in global warming?
Yes. I do.
Because I believe everything on earth is a process and nothing is stagnant. The only constant is change.
Then again ... it's been seen that what we thought back when on global warming at times caused the opposite effect and that also is explained away like the NHC is explaining away Franklin hoping the wierd doesn't happen.
Only thing is..when talking weather..wierd gets thrown into sentences real often.
Look at the tracks for 1933..and know this. Before the Dust Bowl storms made their way into the Oklahoma panhandle.. they started out further east. One storm was so strong that it carried dust from Chicago to NY and Washington DC and ships in the harbor in NYC were covered with Dust that started back in Wyoming or some such place on it's way to Chicago and then the Mid-Atlantic coast. Would have to google it and I want to blog soon and am short on time. You google it :) Then the storms settled down about the Oklahoma Panhandle who got a bad wrap for the whole dust bowl thanks to one famous reporter and another famous novelist. The whole panhandle is about 30 miles wide mind you and Kansas and Texas took it BAD but Okies got blamed for being just dumb old folk who screwed up the top layer when indeed they were in a set up of weather years that caused a drought. Yes, learning to farm better is good.. but you can't fight weather.
One dust storm lasted FIVE days... FIVE. Five days of total darkness ...
Now, without being able to google previous weather events in history you would think it must have been God getting back at you for not bringing Emily that apple pie last week when she was sick and or... didn't drive Norbert into town for his great aunt's funeral.
Had to be something BIG and CRAZY.
Truth is the 30s brought droughts.. winds and dust storms. And..wild, wild hurricane years.. same years. 1933. 1935. Two of the biggest years of storms.
The 40s brought one hurricane after another straight to South Florida. We were the magnet of choice. My father, a mathematician, went to UM and lived on Miami Beach often in cheap apartments on Ocean Drive and Collins Avenue. Slept through one storm after another. To him a hurricane a year was a normal thing. The way life was in Miami.. he had not much else to compare it to as he came down to Miami about then.
My Grandma.. an old timer, pretty much a Conch by conception would have told him.. sometimes you get them, sometimes you don't and every year she said, "oh I sure hope we don't get one of those storms"
The 50s were quieter...
The 60s were wild again ..
Etc.. on and on it goes.
But, we didn't have global warming and big government grants out there to apply for to study them to link all of this together and get the answer we want to manipulate the experiment towards.
So what would you have attributed the years 1933 and 1935 to if you were just Betsy down on the suddenly very dusty farm or hanging on to her baby brother in a palm tree in the Keys?
If you want to understand the prsent, look back... and understand the past.
Can't put the apple before the cart just because your brand new split screen computer monitor can do models faster than mine.
Worse year of the Dust Bowl.. drought, heat..hell they even had an earthquake and yet Mother Nature didn't provide any relief did it? Storms were all east of the Mississippi and the Emily/Gert storm went WSW.
Models are fun.. would prefer picking Gray's brain.