Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Question: How Low Will The Low Go??

How low will the low go and where will the low go..
That is the question..

Or so stated in the NWS out of Miami this afternoon.
Tells a story in fragments of various models developing a low and bringing up into the gulf or more likely towards Florida in the next few days. Timing is always a question with such systems, especially when they haven't as yet developed.

Talking fairy dust here and moisture laden clouds...circulating in just enough of a way to make the boys in Miami sit up and plan out a possible road trip for the big seasame street noaa jet. What is it's name this year?

So...here is the NWS.. and below that the water vapor loop..
You tell me where the moisture is going these days?

Hi from wet miami... gray and dark out... people scurrying around trying to avoid the rain. Lots of luck.. looks to be a continued soggy pattern.

loops and discussion below... for more info
www.hurricanecity.com go to message boards
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http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
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http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:XS1J6NsF0s4J:weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html+atlantic+unisys+%22water+vapor%22+loop+12&hl=en
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
228 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...GFS PERSISTS IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN
CARIB...AND SO ETA AND UKMET DEVELOP IT TOO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN GFS AND THESE OTHER GUIDANCE IS THE MOVEMENT. GFS HAS THE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE MOVING NORTH TO WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY THU
EVENING WHILE ETA AND UKMET MOVE IT TOWARD YUCATAN PENINSULA. GFS
HAS THE SYSTEM ABOUT 300 MILES OR SO SW OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY FRI
MORNING. A CONVERGENCE LINE/TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED OVER OUR
AREA WITH A RATHER WET PERIOD STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WILL GO CLOSER TO GFS AS EXPECT DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP STEER THE DEVELOPING LOW NORTHWARD
AS OPPOSED TO MOVE IT TOWARD THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP HIGH SCT POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW DEEP THIS LOW WILL
GET? GFS DEVELOPS A TS OUT OF THIS...AND ALTHOUGH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...AND UPPER LVL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...WILL GO WITH A WEAKER LOW AND KEEP
WINDS OVER LOCAL AREA IN THE 15 TO 20 KTS RANGE THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT.

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1 Comments:

At 3:45 PM, Blogger alena said...

Cool Blog, I never really thought about it that way.

I have a Hurricane Katrina blog. It pretty much covers hurricane related stuff.

Thank you - and keep up the thoughts!

 

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