Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, May 07, 2005

Never Try and Predict What a Storm Will Do

Never try and predict what mother nature or the powers that be have in store.

Never try and reason with Hurricane Season..

Sometimes they do what you think they will...and sometimes they do it for just a while and suddenly veer off.

What if Andrew had wobbled left instead of right? Would they be building big beautiful lofts along the shoreline downtown or would scared investors think twice. Been a LONG, LONG time since Miami got the eye of a real storm. Or Broward... which keeps getting lucky.

Luck only lasts so long and all the knowledge in the world cannot predict for sure what a tempermental, watery, windy storm will do.. once it's on the playing field of life.

Thought on this today.

Storms are so much like people.

so... I posted this in www.hurricanecity.com because that's what I do.. post things. I wrote, poetically sometimes.. other times not. I am a writer after all. I see things from not just one side but from two and three.. through the eyes of all the chracters in a story. And, then like the person that I am.. I do what I feel is right, deep down inside. Never go against your gut or that little voice that says "no dont do that" because somewhere deep down you will lay awake late at night thinking you made a foolish mistake and be upset you didn't listen to your gut.

Someone made a comment this week to me. Made me think.

Something wonderful about being 50 that rocks.. and that is... you feel like you can suddenly close the door on the past and you can step out into the future and try to have those things that you missed the first fifty years when you were playing roles, filling obligations and promises made sometimes in haste or without a lot of thought and you have a drive and a passion to really want to get it right the next time around. No settling on what others want you to do because at 50 you know what you didn't know at 20 and 30 which is deep down a bit on who you are, what makes you happy and what you can and can't live with.. or without.

For me.. it's love. I need to be in love.. feel love if I am going to make a committment to starting over again. I've been practical. I've been purposeful. I've been a lot of things.

Like minds are nice... but bodies have to match up late at night and energy has to flow from one soul to another. Someone can steal your mind but not your heart or soul. You can't have one without the other.

It's all so complex.. like trying to understand hurricanes and things that go bump in the night.

Another friend told me years back online.. one of those simple little sayings that people put on their profiles to define themselves. "I settled for a penny and a penny was all I got" well like.. yeah, duh :) We are so foolish when we are young or just not developed yet as people.. fending our way through life, through our dreams and our parents dreams and everyone else's schemes..

And, only a fool would think they could predict what another person or storm will do.

My father...always said, never bet on people.. there are too many invariables. Bet on the dogs.. not people. And, I am not a gambler with money but we all gamble with our heart, don't we? Those of us who have a heart and who don't operate like a computer program.

So...here's my post from Hurricane City which is where I currently live online in tropical realms. Unless one day I give up hurricanes for ice storms or noreasers or windstorms or duststorms but always some sort of storm. St. Barbara, patron saint of storms.. how did my mother who was so Jewish know something like that? I guess it's just the fickle finger of fate.. God's play.. They say when a child is born that God gives the parents a sort of prophecy to know what name to name them.. We can drop the saint part, skip right back to Bobbi...my little nickname I chose when entering Coral Park and deciding to drop the E once and for all even though it seems to have started a life long attempt at convincing my friends there is no E.. in my name... in my life... Just Bobbi.

What is in a name?
Romeo where art thou Romeo..

Have to add one last thing.. on my little blogger here that mostly is just for me and Jay and a few other people who know about it..

Everyone always thinks Shakespear wrote the following words.. I guess they sound so wise.. but they are wrong...

So...let me set the record straight..and then move on to tropical things.
****************
"Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!"
Sir Walter Scott
****************

Never try to reason with it.. or bet on it or even try to predict them... just hang on for the ride.

Hurricanes like people have their own complex set of rules for life. We can study all the factors, all the past seasons, factor in this season's patterns and still not predict what they will do when they actually happen.

But we love to study them, watch them develop and spin their way across the water.

We are all sort of intensity freaks here in a way. Some scientifically minded, others spiritual, others looking for thrills and others just mystified that suddenly something can come together from nowhere and form an entity and travel across the oceans with a mystery and a beauty all its own.. each unique, like you are I. Hard to understand, hard to define, hard to predict.

Only a fool would try to predict what a storm will do in any given season.

It's one of those push come to shove sort of times.. no reason or rhyme sometimes and after the fact.. when its all over and done with.. you can sit down and take it apart like an autopsy on a sudden death and see why it played out the way it did. Of course you need a body for an autopsy and you need a storm to start tracking.

But, before or as it is happening.. not always so simple.

Those of you betting against the Bermuda High falling into place.. I'd put your money back in your pockets. I love to look for those storms like Betsy that do their own quirky thing but truth is Climo wins out the same way the odds are usually stacked in the favor of the house winning.. almost always.

No..there is no BIG BAD BERMUDA high yet.. no, we might not get 4 storms in Florida tracing tracks around the state.

But, if all else is in place we will have a season and I would bet a pretty active one. Maybe an early storm and then waiting day by day for something to pop in late August while everyone here begins to bite everyone else's heads off. You've all seen it before.. don't say you haven't.

And.. I do think there will be a threat to South Florida and a higher than usual chance that the mid-Atlantic through Long Island and all the way up to Maine may have a flirt with danger or even disaster. Very possible. In a year where every storm has turned in to meet with fronts pushing down and over from the Great Lakes.. could happen, could pull the yet to be formed storm in as opposed to out.. before racing off the the Outter Banks.

And, North Carolina will get a storm.. don't they always?

EPac will have action, maybe SW Carib.

Just spent the day thinking on life and thinking how funny it is that scientifically minded, chess playing type of left brain people who feel that if they study hard enough, read every book there is to read and google every site there hasn't been googled before can ...will figure out what a Storm will do in advance and bet their lives and life savings on their theories. Buy a generator? Move to Alaska. Build a bigger bunker or find a safe room to hide in.

I have one message for all of you to think upon when you think you have decided what this season will be like and what the Storm will do...

Don't bet on it.

Ain't no reasoning with hurricane season.
Storms follow their own paths because some little thing that you haven't factored into your perfect little equation has an influence on the storm you can't see by watching it on website, or weather type cam. You can't always see INSIDE the storm's eyes... it's heart.. they all have hearts you know? Beating down there somewhere under stadium effect eyes and stars in them ..swirling about.

Remember what a mess Debbie made that year you all thought you were so wise to play games with mother nature and make predictions so far out... it sure looked like a done deal, didn't it? Oh, she succeeded for a while but... she never had staying power did she?

And, Georges... oh I remember the predictions on him turning by the islands, the Virgin Islands, Hispanola.. before Cuba.. chug chug chug.. he waited to turn til he wanted to.

Sometimes the RedSox win the World Series.

Sometimes a horse wins the Kentucky Derby as a 50-1 odds.

Sometimes 4 storms hit Florida and other times they don't.

Sometimes miracles happen and somethings we mortal fools try to predict what the future will bring.

Everyone take care, and have a good year.. season.. Bobbi
**************
Lord, what fools these mortals be!"

--From A Midsummer Night's Dream (III, ii, 115)
http://www.allshakespeare.com/quotes/353

Bobbistorm..who once upon the time was BobbiCane.. a name I didn't make up oddly, but my ex-husband did.. what is in a name? Bobbistorm is better.. but, its just a name..

Enjoy the weather..where ever you are...

1 Comments:

At 3:25 PM, Blogger jiri said...

Cool Blog, I never really thought about it that way.

I have a Hurricane Katrina blog. It pretty much covers hurricane related stuff.

Thank you - and keep up the thoughts!

 

Post a Comment

<< Home