Meteorologists have pointed out the rain in Tampa is NOT Erika.
So true. In reality it's another stalled out trof over Tampa....
...with a little bit of Erika..
Let's call it stalled trof with infused tropical air making for an Artisanal Brew.
Speaking of brews..
Available in the airport in Tampa..if you are flying thru..
Try their brew ;)
My favorite of course....
...bet you knew that one ;)
It's been a crazy year in the tropics.
Busy Pacific...which we knew would happen.
Busy Atlantic which we were not expecting.
Around the tropics in general.
You can wave bye bye to Erika and her remains.
Also note she let some remains in the GOM
Waves in the Atlantic moving towards Islands kicking up.
GOM steamy too...
South of Hispaniola ... go figure ...
This is very clear here ...
So find your favoite loop and watch Fred do this thing...
..he will soon hit cooler waters and deal with other problems later in his life.
One of the things about weather that is amazing is how each year is different and yet on an overall grander level climatography wins out. But taken from one spot on Planet Earth an individual year can stand out for drought or record floods. Yes, it may average out over time. Someone wants to move to Charlotte, NC and they go online and Google "average weather temperature Charlotte" and get an average high of 70.8 degrees Fahrenheit. They think "wow, that's nice.." and the average low is "48.8F" sweet.
Averages don't tell the story.
It gets hot as blazes in the summer with little air movement.
Steamy, hot, sultry, Southern summers.
In the winter it can go way down below freezing.
Ice Storms, Hurricanes are possible though not probable.
It's foggier often than say Raleigh ..
It's not San Diego..let's put it this way.
A really beautiful city.
I heard Bryan Norcoss say on an average Miami...
.... has a hurricane every 2 years.
That's possibly true mathematically but...
you can go 10 or 20 years without a real hurricane.
Then a decade like the 1940s comes along and you have 2 a year.
An average doesn't really tell the story.
Do Analog years tell the story I wonder?
Earlier this year the Dream Team in Colorado put out a forecast.
CSU ... you know the one.
Gray and Klotzbach
They put up the following list for analog years.
How did they do?
Depends which variable you are choosing to look at...
Majors vs Minors?
Let's look at the one that showed long trackers.
All of these years had healthy Cape Verde Storms.
Carrie was a Tropical Storm just SE of the Cape Verde Islands.
Cruised by them to the South...
A long tracker I may add..
1987 featured 2 CV Storms that formed near Africa.
Before the Cape Verde Islands..
Not Hurricanes but still formation very far East.
Busy year everywhere.
E & A storm similar tracks
Again 1991 a TD in the CV Islands.
Danny formed far to the East also.
Dennis formed near the CV Islands.
Cindy was killed by the unsual suspect...
Edouard formed near the CV Islands
Bertha and TD2 formed far to the East.
Bertha survived Hispaniola but was a fish storm.
Arthur danced near Ana.
If you think this is normal to have so many long trackers...
...you are wrong.
Many years nothing forms East of say 50 West.
Tropical Waves wander west and flare up, get named, die out.
And many years its common to have at least 1 storm that forms out there.
But if you pick 5 random years ...
I'd say the one common denominator of these analog years is..
Early formation by or East of the Cape Verdes.
Long trackers even if they fizzle.
2015 so far...
I used Wikipedia to be different and...
though it didn't form over Africa we watched it over Africa.
Pouch study and all to be discussed on another blog
On a micro level...
Tampa and Charleston are in the news nonstop for flooding rain.
No direct landfalling hurricane but flooding rain.
Does rain need a name when it hits historic levels?
If your street is flooded and you can't leave the house...
That's memorable rain.
Oddly a little over 200 miles to the SE Miami is in a mild drought.
4.3 Hours drive according to sources online.
279 miles to the N Raleigh is in a mild drought,
4.6 hours drive according to the same sources online.
Probably not how long it takes your son-in-law to drive...
But I digress..
Even within a small area weather can vary.
One part of Raleigh gets snow..
..another gets rain.
One part of Palm Beach gets rain...
....another needs rain.
Weather is amazing.
Weather is hard to forecast.
Climo almost always wins on the average.
Looking back at 2015 we will remember Cape Verde systems.
One storm may form that becomes memorable like Katrina or Andrew.
Or one weak TS may wobble on shore Charleston or Tampa ...
...and make a bad situation worse.
A Cape Verde Hurricane hitting Cape Verde Islands.
So far Hispaniola is doing it's job.
If we get a storm that goes UP and OVER the islands...
...will see if the US gets lucky once again.
Prayers for those in the Caribbean recovering from Erika.
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Note I'll update at the top with current breaking weather news..
TS FRED Headed to Cape Verde Islands with Hurricane Force Winds.. One for the books. Erika brings Rain ...
Link to Cape Verde Islands weather
Well that's unique. One for the record books. An intensifying Tropical Storm named Fred is forecast to hit the Cape Verde Islands with hurricane force winds. This year is so rich in Cape Verde Storms that they are battening down the hatches in Praia in the CV Islands to prepare for a land falling storm.
Healthiest wave in years...
In an El Nino Year.
Hopefully Fred will be a Fish.
A cold fish...
And if not his cousin SAL is ready for him..
Some great links at www.spaghettimodels.com on future tracks.
They truly are spaghetti models.
Models look like a bouquet of roses drooping.
Good discussion on www.crownweather.com
I'll be at www.canetalk.com as I usually am.
Here's Fred's track below from Crown.
Most probably at some point in history a hurricane has formed that far out... but we can't find record of it yet. And, we've been trying.
And so the hunt for another storm began...
It was like a Safari looking for a storm..
There have been storms back in time.
Some have very little data to support the tracks.
Ship logs are available.
Of course if a ship went down ..
...and is at the bottom of the ocean we don't have the ship's log.
But it happens rarely.
The 1893 Sea Island Hurricane that decimated Georgia started....
off Africa by the CV Islands.
Note that storm did the C V Islands as a Tropical Storm.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Studied meteorology & geography at FIU. Been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm