Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, November 21, 2014

Threat of Flooding in Buffalo & a Look at Historic Great Lake Snow Storms in November. Oh.. Bills play in.. Detroit.




http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/snow-covered-buffalo-area-faces-risk-of-roof-collapses-flooding-1.2844367

Remember the other day when I said that after the snow finishes falling there would be a concern on flooding? Well, we are "there" now and they are very worried about flooding as the snow begins to melt. Mind you, at some point it will refreeze. This is not North Carolina ... it's going to stay cold for a long time and parts of Buffalo may be seeing white for most of winter. Or..depending on how much melts they could have winter floods that will rival spring floods.

Hard to know for sure until this continuing disaster plays out in real time.


Salient part of today's discussion from the NWS Buffalo Office

".SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN."

As for the Buffalo Bills game... it has been moved to Detroit. Wondering if they are using the National Guard to air lift some of their players out of their homes... as a few have been stranded by the record snowfall. 

  1. This snow doesn't scare me... ๐Ÿ˜Ž
    This snow doesn't scare me...๐Ÿ˜Ž
Yup.. Monday Night Football ... from Detroit.. 



See these things just don't happen down south.... like last year when everyone up north in places like Buffalo made fun of people in Atlanta and Raleigh.

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I'm tired of hearing the term "unprecedented" when it comes to historic hurricanes and snow storms.

 A look around the Internet or your local old fashioned library will tell you snow storms in November are not that uncommon around the Great Lakes. This one has had record totals for some towns in Buffalo. Ironically, parts of Buffalo have no snow. It's a tale of two cities. Like when Hurricane Andrew hit Homestead with Category 5 winds and North Miami Beach basically got a strong tropical storm or Category 1 Hurricane.

In 1913 a storm blew in off the Great Lakes depositing bodies, ships no longer at sea and piles of snow onto many Great Lake cities...including Buffalo. And, after the snow there was a problem with flooding. Much like in California where fires set up the situation for mud slides later in the season. You cannot have that much snow this early in ..late Autumn and not have some of it melt creating localized flooding.



History repeats often especially in the world of weather. But, like Cabbage Patch dolls each is one is a little different.


In 1913 there was a storm known by the name "The White Hurricane" that slammed into the Great Lakes in the middle of November with the fury of a hurricane and a January blizzard.

http://www.buffalohistoryworks.com/light/light-vessel.htm

The National Weather Service called it simple the "Great Lakes Storm of 1913"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stm_1913.php

A wild storm story for anyone who loves storm stories...

Here's a small sample of the intensity of that 1913 White Hurricane and the horrific stories of death. Reads more like a Halloween story than a Thanksgiving story.



Note that this storm has been compared to the Winter of 1978... and it's ferocious winter storms.

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/downtown-waterfront/honoring-6-coast-guardsmen-lost-on-lake-erie-in-1913-white-hurricane-20131017


Then there was the storm that was made famous in song...

Good article... well done. Worth y'all reading it in depth...
If you aren't into reading, there is always the song...




Be well.. stay safe and remember it's only November...

Besos Bobbi

Ps http://www.wpxi.com/news/weather/buffalo-bills-players-react-new-york-snowstorm-pho/nh93h/
Hey everyone has priorities... for some it's music and for others it's football.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Shoveling Out in Buffalo... Still Snowing... Winter 2014 Comes Early



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Any area in blue...or hot pink has snow covering it currently. Very impressive calling card winter has left upon the nation.

The Arctic Blast was so strong it snowed on Mike's Weather Page turning everything into snow flakes.


Note the cold front went all the way down INTO the Caribbean.

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It's a chilly 68 degrees tonight in Miami..
Brrrrr..  

In any other year we'd have to watch the tail end of that front.
In any other year.

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I was surprised to see the TWC was doing live weather tonight when I realized I had CNN on...

It's a massive story and MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY for Buffalo where they are literally trying to dig out before Sunday's NFL game at home in Buffalo....


I looked at this picture on my phone and couldn't figure out what it was... 
...it's the stadium NOT a skating rink..

Sure glad the Miami Dolphins aren't playing the Bills this week.
Even a snow plow brought on for a kick wouldn't defrost the fins.
Lots of luck Jets... 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-top-ten/09000d5d80498bba/Top-Ten-Weather-Games-The-Snow-Plow-Game

1982... December. Miami had to play on a field dug out for the game.
It happens.
What will happen this week in Buffalo?
Only time will tell.



Great video above of Shula talking on that very infamous snowy game

Old school video....


There have been those types of games in the past... 


Truth is the football season goes into winter.
November 18th is NOT winter.
It is this year.

Despite all the obsessing over football. 
It's not all about football.
Cantore is right... 



And, honestly the bigger problem in Buffalo right now is not the football game, but the fact that more snow is n the way. And, when it warms up the snow will melt some... and there is a growing fear on how much flooding will occur. 

This is not just about football. It's about issues that are life and death. Kids trapped on school buses over night on their way to games. People trapped in their homes unable to get out. The weight of the snow collapsing roof tops as well as doors ... structures can only take so much pressure. The weight of snow, especially very wet snows, takes a toll. Shoveling very wet, heavy snow takes a toll and many a person has suffered a heart attack trying to get it done.... not knowing their limits or the weight of the snow. Would you try and shovel an elephant off your lawn or carry a piano by yourself? No ... I don't think so. But, every event like this someone ... somewhere... loses that battle trying to shovel their way out.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/shovel-snow-heart-attack/story?id=27027683

Article worth reading that explains how to survive the aftermath of a snow storm. And, snow storms like hurricanes always seem to have their highest death toll AFTER THE STORM than during it.

As for Buffalo's current snow situation... It's snowing again!


(note it's going down to 27 degrees tonight in Raleigh.. but no snow...)


NWS Buffalo Forecast Discussion

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
906 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT HAS NOW BEGUN AS COLDER AIR
HAS STARTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN PUSH THESE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OVER THE SAME
AREAS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER LAKE SNOWS. EXPECT SOME SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT TO THE SNOWBANDS TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE THE SNOW BANDS LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY."

You can read the discussion in the link below. The problem may be how much snow will melt...before refreezing with the next strong front. Spoiler alert: Thanksgiving Holiday may be a mess.


What will the rest of winter be like? Hard to tell but easy money is on a cold, wet winter filled with many more snow storms

Seems this winter it helps to have a team of horses to rescue you if you are stranded in the snow..

Besos Bobbi




Hmmmmmm



Stay tuned..

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Beginning to Look A LOT Like Winter... Snow.... Cold... Winter Coats & Boots!



Let's go in up close and personal here... 
see the old front... see the new front..



Beginning to feel a lot like winter...

It's not even Thanksgiving yet... not even Chanukah....


(thinking of going up to Greensboro for this ...maybe...)
http://www.chabadgreensboro.com/

Then again this is what I wore to Temple on Saturday.... it was in the upper 30s. Do not laugh.
It was a test run... I bought it online... it was warm ;)
That's me...no selfies on Shabbos... but you get the idea



Yes... it's looking a lot like your holiday of preference or all of them rolled into one. Everyone is wondering if it's worth the trouble this Thanksgiving to go over the river and through the woods and if snow will be in the forecast...

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And, I don't mean the decorations and the sales... I mean the WEATHER....

Hard to know what to believe when every morning I go online and check out my local forecast. And, every morning I hit the red highlighted discussion that is changed from the previous part and ...it's changed.


The salient part is this...

1. It was not supposed to move in until Tuesday, now it's Monday. Now the rain may start this evening on Sunday Night.

2. It's gray, cold and if I go out I may be wearing the coat again... the forecast has changed. The short term one and we are talking on wedges again this year.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. SOME DECREASE IN TEMPS WILL
OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN ASSOC/W MOISTENING/EVAP
COOLING OF THE INITIALLY DRY SFC AIRMASS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HYBRID OR IN-SITU CAD WEDGE. TEMPS WILL BECOME
STEADY AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE BY SUNRISE MON AS THE CAD WEDGEI
ERODES IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT
WARM ADVECTION. -VINCENT
-- End Changed Discussion --

Larry Cosgrove who is always excellent with an in depth analysis makes a good case for more frigid weather in the South.


Saving that on my computer and going to check it out next week...


And, if you think it's just me from up here from down in Miami freezing...nope.

High School Football Friday Night is like the Super Bowl in Raleigh... 


http://abc11.com/weather/football-fans-brave-frigid-temperatures/396381/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitter

It's not just me. 



We all seem to be in this early winter time chill...
if you want warm weather you need to book a trip to Florida...
where the hot temperatures on the field last night were giving players cramps... hmnnn
(lots of lights during night games... )

So....gotta go do some shopping. Food shopping...for warm soups on the menu this week and possibly chili ;)  My husband asked me when I'd be ready to go out. I told him... "when I'm done blogging and....when it warms up............"  Think this is as warm as it's getting and I'd bet this front is coming in even sooner than expected.

Look at all that blue snow............and cold green rain. And, I'm wondering IF it thunders when it feels like winter does that mean we get snow in 10 days?


Besos Bobbi

Ps...........there is nothing going on in the tropics...other than... people in Miami buying boots for winter ;)





Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Gone Fishin... In Key West. Rosetta Stone Touches Down


I know.. I've been away for a week.
I've been on hiatus?
No.. I've been on vacation in South Florida.

I've been in Key West a lot.. 


Staring at places where my Great Grandparents lived... 
...like behind this garden gate on Whitehead Street.


I'll be back tomorrow sometime with lots of weather information and ideas of where to go in Key West if you love weather, science and nature. 

Been going through things with my brother. My mother passed away this year and there are a lot of boxes of her writing, pictures and notes. Visiting with the family and my friends who are like family. Walking and wandering up Whitehead Street...down Simonton Street. 

Watching sunrise... an underrated joy in Key West that most visitors sleep through. It's way better than sunset, though sunset is nice too. The weather has been cooperating. Last time I was in Key West in was in the 90s... August... humid, hot and almost unbearable. This has been stunning weather. Clear blue skies with a constant breeze and almost cool nights.

When I say "almost cool nights" I worry on how I will acclimate again back to Carolina weather. If I am cold in Key West with a cool breeze of the bay at night how am I ever gonna do North Carolina?

Either way I'll be back tomorrow with information on Polar Vortex Round 2... the remake.

And... while I've been wandering in Key West... the Rosetta Stone touched down on a comet in outer space. Awesome amazing if you ask me.

Besos Bobbi

Ps..Thanks for your patience. When things get quiet tropically... you got to go back to the tropics.

http://news.sky.com/story/1372011/rosetta-probe-touches-down-on-speeding-comet




Tuesday, November 04, 2014

Jim Leonard Passes On...Tropical Update on Yellow X with Low Chances of Forming

First I am going to cover the tropics because that is what most of you come here for...

At the bottom of the tropical update there is information and video about Jim Leonard who passed away November 2, 2014 losing his battle with cancer. Some great videos from some of his get togethers in the Florida Keys and my own thoughts or at least the ones I'll share with you here. Jim loved weather and so .......I'm starting with the weather and ending with my thoughts on Jim and my fellow storm chasers. AT the very end is a great interview of Jim Leonard by Jim Williams at a BBQ in 2010. Got to love it. As sad as I am to hear he passed on... I know what it's like to be talking on the phone and suddenly.........that's the last thing you said before losing service. Whoosh... Whoosh with the wind.

http://canetalk.com/2014/11/1415078772_1415070916.shtml


Tropical Update ... feel free to skip to the bottom...it's just a Yellow X... 
#thereisnohurricane just a yellow X from the NHC


Where would it go?


Temporarily it would go NNW towards land or better said an approaching cold front. 

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This is typical rotation at the base of an old cold front.
However, it's really too little too late this year.

When you look at the Visible satellite you can see the cold air & strong upper level winds.

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The interaction of the elements is helping the system flare up and look better than it is...

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So..........the NHC checked it out and is giving it a 10% chance of forming.
They have already pointed out it could become a subtropical system for a brief time.

You can see the plume of tropical moisture in this loop, however you can also see the Trof to the NW.

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It's the end of the season. 
There is always the chance that some late season storm will form... 
Rarely does the hurricane season go out in a blaze of glory.. 


The truth is and I really don't want to write about it but I am.... is that a weather hero passed away this week. He didn't die in a blaze of glory, he lost his long battle with cancer but to the end he was aware of the love and support of his fellow chasers who tried to help him financially with his battle against cancer as well as show their respect for one of the early, original storm chasers that used videography, photography and any means he could to convey to the public the beauty and the fury of weather. Long run on sentence but I'm not in the mood to edit my many thoughts. It's life... Jim Leonard led a life that we all respected and admired. He was one of the most true to himself spirits out here... just very real, very himself. It was never about HIM ... it was about the Storm..it was about the weather.

http://www.cyclonejim.com/



He is missed by many, mourned by many and his life and love of storms is celebrated by all of us who learned from him and his legacy.

Storm chasers are close friends. There is a camaraderie between us that is hard to explain to others. We just "get each other" in a way that most people cannot. But, it's not just about wild Cat 3 Hurricanes with storm surge and wind and screaming "wahooooooo" on video or posting endless pictures of the same lightning strike that looks different to us.... but not to you.

It's about the love of watching the clouds, the rain, the water, the sky, the stars and lines of thunderstorms moving in over water or an open field. It's about keeping clippings under your bed of hurricane headlines, stories and pictures. It's about decorating our homes in portraits of Donna, Andrew and Hugo. It's about having scrapbooks not of our best game or favorite prom picture but of storms we tracked, chased and photographed. Okay I have a few prom pictures, but every where you look there is a note pad with information scribbled old school on a notepad or a bill. We understand each other even though we are different in many other ways.

I can remember the first time I saw Jim Leonard's name in a post online YEARS ago and stopped, went back to double check because my brother's name is Jay Leonard. I thought I was imagining things. Nope, he was a chaser who was well respected by some friends I respect greatly. 

I've always respected Jim a lot. Sort of teased him and gave him a hard time a few times. Storm chasers seem to love to tease each other about as much as they like to get tee shirts with the word HURRICANE on them. They love to sit outside, BBQ, shoot the breeze and hope for bad weather to move in ...  And, the best place to do that is the Florida Keys. Always thought he was one smart man to live a good part of his life down in the Keys with a view of the water and sky at all times. A life well lived if you ask me, even if it was ended way too soon.

Here's a video of one of many stormchaser parties he held at his place down in the Keys. 


A lot of stormchasers were there having a good time, hanging out with Jim.


On air... with Jim Williams at Hurricane City setting up for a live broadcast. www.hurricanecity.com. Note we all have the same decorator... Hurricanes R Us ;)  


There was a time in my life people would ask me online where I live and I'd say "I'm from Miami, but I sort of live at Hurricane City" and that was true. I spent so many hours of my life talking with friends on the message board CaneTalk hosted by Jim Williams.. a good friend of Jim Leonard. I know a lot of people are hurting today, and have been for a while trying to help him through his illness in any way they could.  There were of course tee shirts involved..  I want to thank all of my friends and readers who wrote me that they bought a shirt and donated to the cause. Wear them proudly.



And, here's some video from a chase Jim Leonard was involved in during Hurricane Gustav in Morgan City, Louisiana. I always remember hearing warnings go up for "Morgan City" growing up. It's one of those names of places like Marathon that makes me think of hurricanes making landfall.


Besos Bobbi

Ps Great video from the 2012 party and some awesome fly on the wall listening to chasers talk with the beautiful water of the Florida Keys behind them ...where Jim Leonard lived his life.

http://hurricanecity.com/video/jlparty2010.html  ( a MUST WATCH... just listen and get a feel for the life and the stormchasers Jim Leonard hung out with... shooting the breeze, talking hurricanes.



Friday, October 31, 2014

Winter Weather Steals the Headlines on Halloween 2014


VS

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5 Day Snow Forecast...Winter Weather Map

Winter Hijacked my Tropical Update on TWC this morning despite this map...

In reality it's not over til it's over... but at the moment the tropics are quiet.

In Raleigh (Piedmont part of North Carolina...which means neither here nor there..)

Fall color is at peak ... get it today before the rain brings the leaves down on Saturday.




That's a REAL picture with NO FILTER. 
Train tracks in Cary on the way to the new Publix that just opened up.
It's like Hanukkah came early this year..and I'm redecorating my kitchen in Publix Green.


No my name is not Cary but if your name is Cary or even Corey you might get away with it... 
Cary is part of the RDU area.. R for Raleigh 
A little bit of Florida sunshine came to North Carolina this week.

(that says 32 in Raleigh late Saturday Night)


Note... a bit of Wisconsin winter is coming on Saturday.
You will find me AT HOME ... bundled up on Shabbos reading, relaxing & staying warm.


Yes Virginia winter is coming South early this year.. 


So if you haven't made your fall pilgrimage to places like Asheville and put it off til Halloween..
...you may see old Jack O Lantern dressed up with snow flakes.. 
See the sad snowflake?  Well it's sad unless your nuts for snow!


And, again you can find all your winter links down towards the bottom of www.spaghettimodels.com



And, if you are in Asheville... enjoy Jack's Tavern aka
Jack of the Wood ;)
http://www.jackofthewood.com/

Besos Bobbi
Ps . . . Stay warm.