TD 2 Makes Gulf Fall... Will Watches Be Posted for Veracruz ... & ...watching the wave in the Atlantic.

Where do your eyes go in this satellite image?



A surge of moisture has invaded the dry lands of the tropics north of 20 at the entrance to the Caribbean and the assorted islands we so love to travel to on vacation.Interesting set up... it also surges westward in the Bay of Campeche where TD 2 will most likely come back to life and possibly... small sliver of a chance he becomes Barry .... before making landfall way south of the Tex-Mex line in Mexico around Veracruz. Sometimes I wonder if I lived there in a previous life time.. sometimes I wonder on a lot of things :) Don't you ever wonder on stuff like that? Anyway... it seems to be Veracruz or bust here, unless things change and things do sometimes change in the tropics.

"TUXPAN MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   9( 9)  12(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FRONTERA MX    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA "                                                   

Currently shows it staying a Tropical Depression... time will tell on that one. Models are in fairly good agreement:




RED marks the spot here:



And the flow... across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Atlantic.



I know I am expected to write a nice little story about TD 2, but it's hard for me not to watch the wave in the Atlantic being tickled by the Upper Level Low to the north causing it to flare up and show some life. The models are ignoring it.



Discussion out of NWS Miami shows the wave giving Miami higher than average chances for higher than average rainfall over the weekend.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.

Miami is always a priority for me. Where this wave goes...other waves will begin to follow.

Avila uses the "I" word more than any other forecaster. Just by reading it you know he wrote it. 

NHC Discussion earlier this afternoon:

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING."

So...here are some bits and pieces like lyrics from your favorite song of a long gone wrong song lol.

"...TROPICAL WAVES...                                      

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N26W TO 6N25W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. 
THE WAVE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS 
ALSO A CLEARING IN THE LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT SPREADS 
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE 
DUST...CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
REGION...AND IS SPARSE THERE AS WELL.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N68W TO 8N68W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT 
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO 
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ALSO ADVECTING 
MOISTURE NORTHWARD CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE TO BE 
PRESENT EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 61W-66W. CONVECTION CONTINUE TO THE 
EAST...BUT IS MORE LIKELY CONNECTED TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WILL 
BE DISCUSSED IN THE ATLC SECTION. "

Here are some more thoughts from the powers that be...
"ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN EXTENDING FROM A 
1033 MB AZORES HIGH. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF AN 
UPPER LOW NEAR 23N65W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR 
WEST ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE AROUND THE EAST 
SIDE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 
11N-19N BETWEEN 55W-61W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ALONG 52W...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N42W. THE 
UPPER LOW SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N44W TO 
27N41W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER 
RIDGING DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC...WHILE A THIRD WEAK UPPER 
LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 25N23W. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER 
CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC...EXCEPT 
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDING TO NEAR 55W."

I'll be watching this area as it interests me more than your typical June too soon Bay of Campeche possible upgrade just prior to making landfall at or around Veracruz.
Keep watching and place your bets on what you think will happen and when with this tenacious depression that confounded even the likes of Avila at the NHC...
Besos Bobbi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracruz,_Veracruz

Looks a lot like Havana if you ask me.. 




see...

Belen School Havana 1950s below:







or Miami or Key Biscayne...

LANDLOCKED... TD 2 OVER LAND.. ON LAND...but I'm looking east...

Not much to say about Tropical Depression 2.. landlocked or maybe he's put down his anchor and sitting a spell.

When was the last time the Clipper model was right?



As for me.. moving forward and looking eastward...

There is a wave and a trough axis and none of the models really pick up on it.. but I'm watching. Those models that showed development down the road were long term... not for early next week so I am waiting to see if any models suggest anything ..



And, I think I am homesick and soon I'll be drenched in Miami sunshine with the feel of the breeze of the beach and palm trees and yesterday's wine to quote Willie .. long walks on Lincoln Road in the early morning.

Watch how that wave flares up just east of the islands... note the Upper Level Lows and troughs..



There is going to be a storm in the Pacific.. you can see it flaring up, energy transfering and look at the water vapor loop...



There are indications that things are going to get going soon and I'm not talking about the MJO. Have a friend who may know a lot about how to eat lobster and crab, but he's wrong on the MJO.  Hey we are all wrong sometimes... I know I was many times but rarely on the tropics... more just life.

We make mistakes, we move foward and more so we dwell in the day and revel in it and find pleasure where we can and when you can buy a Willie Nelson CD for less than $4 it's a steal with 26 songs on it and cheaper than downloading them on iTunes and well.. I'm old school sometimes.  Then again I have an old school wooden CD, Record Player .. radio and etc all around do it all for you (or almost all for you) music box.. don't I?

Got to use it.. that's what Capricorns do.. we use... we make sense of things and we organize it all and so here I am organizing my messy tropical thoughts on this blog here.

Missing the ocean... my ocean. Usually any water will do .. but not this time.

If you want a home by the ocean.. in Miami... call my son :) he is obviously very MY son ... look at those pictures and he loves Miami the way his younger brother does who takes his Starbucks at Bayside between classes at Miami Dade College.

Oh Miami................city by the blue waters of Biscayne Bay... I'm coming home soon to you.

http://www.levimeyer.com/22666/dsp_agent_page.php/175250

He knows Real Estate and he knows Miami :)

4th Generation to work in Florida Real Estate.. to love Miami.

My other son sends me these pics of my favorite old buildings near Miami Dade.. 

Yep...expect something to develop real soon... close in to Florida 

just a feeling........

Besos Bobbi

TD 2 Making Landfall in South Belize

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE
GENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT
MOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME
FRAME.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH
AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.

Most models keep it over land or barely over the BOC.

For now TD2 seems destined to be TD2 and Tropical Storm Barry seems elsewhere.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are in a state of flux... as conditions move about waiting for the right moment.

Lots of rain and inland flooding will be the legacy of TD 2 and good to know the models are good at picking out development.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

Bobbistorm.

TD2 Upgraded from Tropical Disturbance... headed for Belize

NHC began issuing advisories for Tropical Depression #2 that is in the process of making landfall in Belize as I type this. It is currently offshore, but ready for lanfall.

Please note 35 MPH winds in a very small area near the center, whereas there is tons of rain far away from the center that will affect a wider area.

Again, the Tropical Disturbance that was only given 40% chances for an upgrade has been upgraded. A similar way Andrea was upgraded. I would imagine the rest of the season will roll this way with erring on the side of caution and upgrades and issuing advisories rather than being overly slow and cautious in upgrades.

More as information comes in..

Besos Bobbi

Caribbean Tropical Disturbance UP to 40% Deep Orange ..State of the Tropics Monday Morning

The area of disturbed tropical weather in the Caribbean is up to 40% odds and has an orange circle from the NHC at 8AM. That was an upgrade of 10% if you were not watching over the weekend, as it has been holding steady at 30% for the last 24 hours.

I'm highlighting the important part of the discussion to make it easier to understand.

Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks GIS data:  .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HONDURAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER ON TUESDAY OR THEREAFTER. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN

The point here is that no matter what happens regarding development Belize and the Yucatan Peninsular will get a lot of rain out of this and possibly stronger than expected winds. Very Squally for lack of a better word. A small center of circulation seems to be there and middle level circulation may be working it's way down to the surface.  Either way it's running out of time.

As many a meteorologist has said this morning it has a "small window of opportunity" and then the proverbial door slams shut and it is a "has been" unless it emerges over the Bay of Campeche and pulls itself together again. Yes, the GFS did predict something might be there, however once there it has failed to latch onto it.

It shows a weak system again in a few days and has problems holding on to it as it seems to slip through it's fingers. Again shear was supposed to be a factor inhibiting it and yet shear has loosened up. What has not loosened up is the grip by the strong high pressure ridge that extends well into the Caribbean which should keep anything that forms in that region West or at the most NW bound for now.  "For now" being the operative term here as we are moving into a period of change in the tropics over the next week to ten days.


Things can change... in the same way they shear factor changed to allow this to develop and reach out distant bands that look as if they will lash South Florida today. Hmnn...did I say "bands" ?? Yes, you'd think it has a better chance than 40% with banding going on...however it's not tightly wrapped and may still have multiple centers vying for dominance.

The Canadian model develops a storm in the Pacific.





The above image shows the chances for development.

It is worth noting that what might be developing in the Pacific comes from this current system in the Caribbean.  Seems a real year for crossover dancers in the tropics....



The 7 Day Loop from the NWS shows nothing special going on in the Gulf of Mexico.. it does show a front that will come down and dissipate over North Florida in a few days. This is a great loop to look at to compare and contrast what is predicted with what the models are indicating. Posting it here, it is found down on the bottom left-middle of the page at www.spaghettimodels.com.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Lastly, for a dream team sort of wish cast.. IF this system lifted NORTH into the very warm waters of the Caribbean ...something more might happen as the water there is warm... bordering on hot. Much hotter than where it is now close into the coastline in Central America.



Down south of the Cayman Islands it is HOT HOT HOT. If anything, it's currently sitting in s bit of a cool spot. The water in the Bahamas between Miami and Cuba is much warmer as well.  Just something to think on down the line in case something develops somewhere. The Loop Current is alive and well ..as well .. if some collapsed frontal boundary develops something off the West Coast of Florida...IF ...the high nudges eastward and releases it's grip on Florida and the Atlantic.

Keep watching. It is fun to watch and for now it is the only show in the tropics.

Well....there's a wave off of Africa, but to quote Carole King... it's so far away.

Besos Bobbi
Ps It IS worth noting that if the NHC sends RECON down there and decides to suddenly upgrade to a designated system it would say a lot about how they will handle the rest of the season.

Thoughts on what 30% Means in the Tropics Tonight

A few quick notes while watching the HEAT play badly...sadly........on the system in the tropics.

The satellite image above makes everything look wild.. in truth it shows you where the moisture is and yet it doesn't show you where the circulation is or is not. So far..the circulation is at mid-levels and not yet a real "system" but we are watching it as the NHC has given it a 30 chance of developing into a system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

The WV loop doesn't really favor significant  development right now. The hot dome of hot air that is plaguing Texas is most likely going to keep any system away from Texas. Lows go to Lows on their most basic simplistic levels...they do not go towards hot dry air, they avoid it like the plague.  There is an area I am still watching off the coast of FL and the next frontal boundary will deposit another area worth watching. Perhaps in a week or two...........there will be something to write about there. For now, no fronts are dipping down into the Gulf lifting storms north.  It looks like it is moving north on some loops, those are the high clouds being pulled and tugged and played with in a power play between the upper level low and the system itself. It looks more organized than it is.................or it's a lot more organized than anyone gives it credit. What center it has is currently straddling land and sea and somewhere in between.

The MJO will be in the region in the next few weeks and the tropics should come alive in July due to that factor. Let me say this about the MJO .I like using it as a factor in evaluating chances of tropical development.  It's one of the more reliable pieces of information and anyone who doesn't want to believe that is mostly holding on to an old school mentality and afraid to move forward with new prediction tools.  It's currently not in our favor for development currently though that is forecast to change in July.

So what is in our favor? Persistence.

Persistence in the tropics of convection favors development. After a while pressures can and will drop and development chances go up. A flash in the pan of color gets no real respect from anyone in the meteorological world.

Ouragans.com ‏@ouragans8m

Position de 93L à 0h TU: 15.4N 84.8W, soit 430km ESE de Belize City, vents maxi 33km/h, déplacement WNW 300° à 19km/h, pression 1009mb

I think that says it all in any language. Invest..or unofficial invest 93L is at 15.4N and 84.8W... 1009mb.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ft.html (a good loop to loop... pin the head on the center of the system)

The Canadian Model does some sort of quasi fujiwara dance in the Pacific... click on this link and hit forward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013061612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Odd...




Most of the convection... tropical energy in the tropics is currently wrapped around this system and it's associated elongated trough.





Keep watching... trust me this wave has better chances of developing than the HEAT does for winning this game.

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Orange Circle in the Caribbean... up to 30% and trying to pull together...

ORANGE... The area in the Caribbean is ORANGE and the NHC seems to like it... to some degree... and so do I.  What it will do and where it will go... not sure, but I'll be back in a bit with more thoughts here on what could conceivably be Tropical Storm Barry if he continues to hang in there and kick up his heels and keep showing convection and rudimentary signs of a circulation developing. 

GIS data:  .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Texas or Mexico? Sending rain up into the middle of the country or headed to the Pacific the long way across Mexico?



Currently only 3 out of 10 chance of developing, but a lot of forecasters have been a fan of it before it even had a )% yellow circle.......

Time will tell... and I'll tell my thoughts a little later.



Stay tuned............it's getting a "look" on the Water Vapor... a sort of bubble forming, a pocket... so where's the shear they have insisted would kill it??



Besos Bobbi.... be back in a while...

Yellow Circle in Caribbean... NOT YET... watching the tropics on Fathers Day 2013!

This really should be called "check back tomorrow" but I am mentioning the Yellow Circle that IS worth mentioning but the models have been inconsistent. Some models show things forming in the Epac and if that happens ...it would put development on hold in the Caribbean and Gulf for several days. You never really know, but all the "haters" are pointing out the high shear and no semblance of circulation and all the things you say when you want to be negative on development. Then again it has consistency for it in that it has held together as an area of weak convection for a while now and models have been teasing us with development on every other run or so.

The 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook out of the NHC in MIAMI put out these official comments:

"ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN"

The Farmer's Almanac put a "threat" into the 2013 Almanac for the end of the this coming week. Something I know a lot of people here pay attention to:

"JUNE 2013:temperature 77° (2° below avg.); precipitation 5" (1" above avg.); Jun 1-7: Sunny, hot; Jun 8-13: T-storms, then sunny, cool north; t-storms, cool south;Jun 14-19: Hurricane threat; Jun 20-23: Sunny, warm;Jun 24-30: T-storms, then sunny, cool north; scattered t-storms south.


My thoughts here at that the diving Upper Level Low is stirring up convection but nothing is really happening. And, still.. I'm watching and so is everyone for the possible development of a system that would form after it moves into the Gulf (BOC maybe) and move up towards Texas. Still think that is not a straight shot or a sure thing as much as a distant possibility.

I'm also curious on the frontal boundary that is hanging off the East coast of Florida. No models play with it yet things somethings spin up there and am also as mentioned previously watching ever tropical wave that doesn't develop but moves west into the Caribbean as the trigger that could pull this puzzle together in a week or so. When I say a week or so I really mean about ten days give or take.

The last few frames here show some small "roll" beginning to take place in the "yellow circle area" which is interesting.



You can see on this WV loop how the ULL is moving down towards the Yucatan and playing with the convection where it flares up ..you can ALSO see how the front is moving down and out past the Bahamas showing the convection further to the East. At some point that front is going to stop pushing and whatever moisture gets left behind "might" possibly have a chance of hooking up with the top part of a westbound tropical wave.

ALL LONG SHOTS for now..




The wide view shows all the players.

1. Caribbean
2. Left over convection from Front East of FL ..North of PR
3. Waves west bound from Africa.


I'll update this as soon as the NHC makes any chances and or.... models show me something to make me think otherwise.


\
A special Happy Father's Day to all the father's out there and a special Happy Father's Day to my friend Mike who has this picture posted on his site..so I feel okay with sharing it. Here's to all your fathers who make a difference in the lives of their children... uncles and older brothers and grandfathers and family friends who also stand in and act as second fathers when kids need them.
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

You are all pretty darn amazing and you deserve more than one day, but we have only one on the calendar so ... Today is the day



Sweet Tropical Dreams..

Just Another Day In the Tropics.... Misc thoughts on Miami and the "deck collapse" at Shuckers & Stuf

Nothing going on in the tropics today except for a diving upper level low/frontal boundary. Let that settle and linger for a few days, maybe four or five and we might have more to talk about.

With that diving front and it's upper level low beginning to strengthen and take over the Carib..nothing specific is going to happen. Waves more west from Africa... June too soon.  Maybe something off of the SE coast if a front bombs out there. For now... if you gambled and are reading this from a cruise ship in the Caribbean ...you lucked out!

In Miami the outdoor deck at Shuckers Restaurant collapsed into the shallow waters of Biscayne Bay despositing anywhere from several dozen to a hundred people into the water moments before a strong storm blew through making the rescue of the soaked patrons even more difficult. Add to that the loss of everyone's cell phone by either finding a watery death in the Bay or just being totally soaked in someone's pocket.. no one could get in touch with anyone.  They were watching the HEAT game... enjoying the HEAT game and the favorite spot of many fans to enjoy away games as they watch the sunset over the Bay became suddenly a bad idea rather than staying home which many did. Others went to the Arena for a "Rally" to enjoy the game and cheer them on, luckily my family was there or at private parties rather at Shuckers.



Last night and may I add at night when you are buried under umbrellas, tables, chairs and parts of the deck even a shallow water could have provided a tragic set up...luckily everyone was rescued and Dwayne Wade in an example of why we call Dade County ...Wade County asked fans after the Heat win to keep the fans at Shuckers on their way to the hospital in everyone's prayers.  As happy as we all were it was a bittersweet end to a magnificent victory.

Understand so many people came rushing out of the restaurant to help rescue people in the Bay.. older people were there, mother's with babies watching the sunset and the game... without a thought that everything could change in seconds.. reporters from nearby Channel 7 studios and all the neighborhood regulars of this beautiful community in the middle of the bay between Miami and Miami Beach. Best views of water in the city... great places to dine and hang out. Not last night..........

In the morning light...oh what a mess.....



What is normally looks like:



And...............it's worth noting 3 people are listed as dead in North Carolina from yesterday's squall line that raced through.  Less people are killed in small hurricanes with proper preparation than yesterday's storm.

People really NEED to take the proper precaution with the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  posts Severe Warnings of ANY KIND.  People just fail to realize dangers because it doesn't  have a name and they feel like it's just a lot of rain...

Take care...enjoy a quiet weather weekend and I'll be back on Sunday...or Saturday Night should some storm system find a way to become a tropical question.

Kids are in from Crown Heights for Shabbos and Father's Day so it's a bit crazy here ... but fun.

Besos Bobbi

Tropical Discussion Off the Record... Something to ponder

1:



2: Watch the flow West along the ITCZ



3 BAMN or rather GFS Ensemble

Westbound wave connects possibly with convection already in the Caribbean and in about ten days or so give or take... just in time for the MJO to show up....

Extra Credit:


Something to think on.... the tropics may just come to life and some of the GFS ensemble models take this very close to South Florida..........


Sweet Tropical Dreams of Barry...

Bobbi