Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Invest 95 in the Atlantic. Orange for Fall... Winter Moving in Fast. Morning Light at the Launch Site.


Invest 95

20141029.1145.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.95LINVEST.30kts-1010mb-190N-613W.100pc.jpg thumbnail

That's a 30% chance down the road of developing... 


Funny how when you look at the satellite imagery it "seems" way bigger ..

And, what I find most interesting is look at the 2 tropical waves behind it.

Late season wave train developed as dusty Cousin Sal departed the scene.

Too little...too late??

Time will tell.
 There is a slight "roll" near the Orange X.
There is another "roll" forming to it's ESE.


Up close & personal...you can see how large & close to the islands this disorganized area of tropical weather is and as the graphic below shows the islands will get some weather out of it.


There is a good map put out that easily explains the subject area well:


Another graphic shows the chance of something developing.
Love that Peppermint Patty splotch.


Somehow it seems higher than the "marginally conducive" comments from the NHC.

However... in reality more people in the Carolinas are worrying on Winter not the Tropics.

120 hours out the Appalachians are due for some wintry weather:


If you are going out to look at fall foliage in the Smokies...
Get out there sooner rather than later.

Freeze outlet. These images are from www.spaghettimodels.com.
Scroll down past the tropical loops.



The view out my bedroom window.......out into the little "natural area" that looks like woods to me.


Watching the leaves falling ..... one by one...

One of my Grandma Mary's favorite songs... brought to life this morning.
Love this song.


And, the most important morning visible around today was the view of the launch pad up the road in VA.

I'm sure eventually we will find out what happen.
The ball seems to have landed in the court of SpaceX this morning.


Does the NHC give this area a Red X upgrade?

Closer look:

Bobbi Storm's Bottom Line:
Keep watching.

Enjoy your weather, your life and your interests.
Enjoy the pleasure of those you love and let them know you love them.
Take some chances, enjoy life and... stop & look around and smell the roses.

Besos Bobbi

 PS... And, always keep an eye on the weather.

SPC Products Overview

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

UNMANNED NASA ROCKET EXPLODES AT LIFTOFF IN VA. Hanna loops? Carib Invest Getting Stronger



Models for BOTH systems are shown here ...taken from main page at www.spaghettimodels.com


Note there is a massive cold front going down so far into Florida that people are currently digging through their closets looking for their boots and coats.

SPC Products Overview
You can see dry air moving into the Atlantic.. surge of tropical moisture in the Atlantic. An attempt can be seen where the wave is trying to get a roll going. Some rudimentary signs of rotation.


latest72hrs.gif (857×405)

This is a strong, set pattern. Note there is a wave behind it, a 3rd area, being watched.





Note the area in the Atlantic near the islands has a higher chance of development than the remnants of Hanna. Not to count Hanna out, just going to discuss this new system first. Then Hanna. And, then the big news story of the night is complete failure of a rocket at lift off carrying supplies and experiments to the International Space Station. Oddly, at the same time of the accident there was a report that suspicious computer activity was going on at the White House. Crazy night or news and imagine there will be quite a few conspiracy theories by the time I finish typing this blog.



"Suspicious cyber activity" after several threats that were made towards the White House computers.  They took some of the networks down and are investigating.

On a separate note there has been a steady stream of huge helicopters going over my house in Raleigh towards the National Guard Facility. Also a lot of contrails unraveling along their route. Sounds nuts, but trust me looked nuttier when I was watching earlier today... several times.

Seems a crazy news day. Crazy and costly.

Ignore the large westbound wave in the bottom right where I know your eyes will go and look at the system just before the islands in the Atlantic.

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Note weather was not a problem for tonight's launch.
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This is an area I'm becoming familiar with as sometimes on the way back from NY we take the Chesapeake Bay Bridge. The Whallop Island launch pad is just south of the Maryland state line in VA.



http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/42340antares-rocket-explodes-after-liftoff




Weather people everywhere are scanning sites looking for data. Many interesting views online.



http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/NASA-Rocket-Explodes-on-Launch-20141028-0046.html
"“As far as we know, all personnel are accounted for and every one's ok,” a spokesperson for the local sheriff's office told Reuters. "

Note that it's really too early to be 100% sure what is on the ground and that no one was injured. Hoping that information is correct, but it's a developing situation. Also, it's very probable that the launch pad are suffered catastrophic damage. The rocket went up and then 5 seconds in it looked like the engines stopped .... it tilted a drop and immediate fell down and exploded. Boom. Crazy, sad loss of work, time and money.

One slight blip occurred immediately after the rocket failure as the live feed heard by many was heard to be instructing the workers there NOT to talk to the press or anyone.

"“Definitely do not talk to the press,” a speaker could be heard stating on a live NASA feed after the incident. The speaker urged workers at the site to refrain from speculating over the cause of the crash."

And, it seems there was crypton equipment (whatever that means) on board and the site has high security.

Another helicopter just went over the house. Beginning to feel like I'm living in LA here. Never heard so many helicopters in one night.

Been a hard few days for me. A woman I've been close friends with since 1976 was in hospice the last few days. We were best friends. Our kids have been best friends. Our grandchildren are best friends. One big family. Chabad is a lot like that. In the span of a week ..she was diagnosed and went home with hospice and died. It's a hole in my heart that is hard to fix.. we shared many family events, she was always there for my kids when they were in Crown Heights which is often. Several had the key to her house.

So...sorry can't say much more tonight. Hanna may act up and do the unpredictable. IF something forms in the Atlantic the East Coast will be protected by the cold front that is forecast to bring snow flakes to parts of the NE and even higher elevations of the Appalachians possibly on Halloween. There could be however some sort of quasi large storm structure in the Atlantic as the tropical system mixes with the cold front.

So... just keep watching. I'll be back tomorrow.

As for the rocket explosion there is a press conference at 9PM ...now.

Watch:

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html#.VFA55PnF-7I

Besos Bobbi

http://www.collive.com/show_news.rtx?id=32559&alias=mrs-miriam-slater-60-obm



Ps.. our grandson's enjoying treats together... 3 generations of hanging out together... her grandson is on the left with blonde hair ...


Monday, October 27, 2014

Hanna Forms in the SW Carib. Morning Visible Seals the Deal. Moving INLAND.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

Hanna forms in the SW Caribbean. Nothing like a morning visible image from the satellite with your cup of Joe to upgrade a tenacious Invest.

Small systems tend to spin up fast and this is about as small as it gets. As I pointed out last night if the invest continued to impress it would be upgraded fast from obsession to full blown crush.

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The above is an image of where we are at right now. Loop it and you will see the green blowing up ..flaring up... ebbing...flaring...pumping.

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Where's it going? Inland with a purpose.


Discussion from the NHC is plain, honest and spot on. Also, be aware that Hanna is doing just what she was forecast to do. Cross the Yucatan... linger on the coast and go inland. Good modeling for a slow forming system. Always good to know the models are handling things well.

"The main hazard associated with Hanna will be very heavy rainfall.
Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across Honduras and
northern Nicaragua. These rains will likely produce flash flooding
and mud slides.

Since Hanna is so close to the coast and about to move inland, this
forecast advisory was sent a couple of hours earlier than usual to
expedite the release of forecast information.  An intermediate
advisory will be issued at 2 PM EDT, followed by a full advisory at
5 PM EDT, as scheduled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 14.5N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 14.0N  83.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1200Z 13.3N  84.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg"


Jim Cantore posted it earlier before the discussion was written. Normally discussion is written with 11 AM advisories, however at 8AM they put out an Orange X so after seeing the morning visible they responsibly put out an advisory with discussion doing an immediate upgrade. Good going. 

And, that is that on Hanna.

A pic from way up above showing the whole picture.


And, despite being small may I emphasize that those are intense rain storms in areas prone to flooding. She may be small and not around very long... but she is worth being aware of if you have interests in the area.

Besos Bobbi

Enjoy...the always great Ray Charles... any song with my mother's name & the town of Savannah works for me. Old favorite...enjoy listening while you watch the loop.


"pouring water on a drowning man.... "  
latest72hrs.gif (857×405)






Sunday, October 26, 2014

NHC Hopelessly Devoted to SW Caribbean





10% chance of development in the short term down in the SW Caribbean where the NHC has anchored a yellow X from here until something forms... this season or next..

Seriously... it's beginning to feel like their theme song should be...



Is this for real or a tropical fantasy?
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east
of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast
to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the
next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain"

Bears watching...that is the bottom line.

It's hanging in there... looking not so terrible on funktop tonight.

It's the small tightly wound colored area on the left not the messy large area moving into the Caribbean. That also has been a sort of semi permanent feature.

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The models for this area show a strange westbound movement.

at201494_model.gif (640×480)

Stay tuned... keep singing and stay well.. happy and safe!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

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Friday, October 24, 2014

Hurricane Dog. Anniversary of Wilma FLL says they are ready for Ebola. Really?? Don't think so.... Invest 94 in Caribbean. Lesson in how to make coffee...and life.

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Let's start at the very beginning. As the song goes ...it's a very good place to start.

The above area shows the remnants of Tropical Depression #9 that has already been given a new Invest designation. If it was to reform would it be #9 or #10 one wonders. Not sure of the philosophy of renaming something that is obviously the same entity.

Most basically I can show the discussion put out by the NHC that seems a matter of fact sort commentary to basically say "nothing happening" or as some would say "stick a fork in it" if you know what I mean.

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms centered over southeastern
Yucatan, Belize, and the adjacent northwestern Caribbean Sea is
associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine. Surface
pressures are rising in the area, and redevelopment is unlikely
while the system drifts eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila"

So is this a low calorie meal that started with an appetizer and never made it to main course let alone dessert? Possibly.

Let's take a look at it. Note it is finally about to come off of the Yucatan.

ft_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

My issue about issuing any specific comments on this area is that really it's too soon to tell.

Easy money is on it being too late in the season.. too little too late. Hanna may not find love at the nursing home.

There is shear. It's late in the year.

Sometimes a system gets trapped down there as high pressure to the north of it from a deep Caribbean cold front and it sits and percolates. For those of you who do not know what a peculator is... shame. They were fun to watch. When I was really little before I thought a Mr. Coffee Maker was as exciting as I now think my Nespresso is.. you put a percolator on the stove (a lot like a real Cuban espresso maker) and you waited for steam, pressure and heat to built up and little bubbles would peculate.

Lots of prepper videos explaining how to make coffee on a gas top if the power goes out. Mind you this is actually a really GREAT video to watch in ways as IF you ever have a bad hurricane and your grill is still working and you were smart enough to get a grill with a burner on it.. this is how you make coffee after a hurricane.



Before Mister Coffee was born and Joe DiMaggio showed a nation how to make a faster, better cup of Joe we had percolators. Before there was instant coffee...there was one basic way in a "modern kitchen" to make a cup of coffee. Before Starbucks............there were percolators.




You are asking "Does Bobbi Storm really want me to watch a 9 minute youtube video?? Seriously??"

Yes. You know why? Because that is how a tropical storm or hurricane develops. Slowly, in real time.

You need the right upper level environment. You need hot water underneath. You need steam to rise and clouds to move out and a center to develop and pressures to drop and the winds to pick up. Cheat sheet for gamers you can go to around 5:45 and you can see it the bubbling up in the little glass knob thingie.

An even better and faster youtube video that explains it more like a hurricane is one on how to make a good cup of Cuban Coffee on your stove top.



I have done that by the way. Be careful with that release value....

Being honest. I stock up on these before a hurricane or ice storm or snow storm. Sorry, but after Hurricane Andrew I learned there is more to hurricane supplies than water. Warm coke and canned coffee feeds my need for caffeine when dealing with no power, water or cable... no phone, no computer... I need caffeine.



So.

Will something develop in the tropics?

Maybe... if pressures can drop. Note IF you watched the Cuban Coffee video you will hear him say the following:

Process:
You build up the bottom reservoirs with cold water.
Heat the water up which creates steam which builds up... and forces the water to...

Watch it... think how a hurricane forms. Very similar.

Cheet Sheat go to 8:11 ...oh wow look at that cuban brew...

Unless of course you want an Instant Hurricane.

Here...how does this taste.



Can you taste it? Feel it in your bones? Maybe...

You may be watching old hurricane movies until next August if this trend continues.

Or.. something in the Caribbean could go BOO for Halloween.

Models are not even worth showing and you can see them at www.spaghettimodels.com

As for South FL Weather. This says it all.

"A low-pressure system has brought heavy rain and gusty winds this morning in Miami-Dade.The National Weather Service issued a significant weather advisory for Miami-Dade County. Two to three inches of rainfall has been forecast, with some localized street flooding.
The low-pressure front is expected to pass early in the afternoon.




Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article3340526.html#storylink=cpy
"A low-pressure system has brought heavy rain and gusty winds this morning in Miami-Dade.The National Weather Service issued a significant weather advisory for Miami-Dade County. Two to three inches of rainfall has been forecast, with some localized street flooding. The low-pressure front is expected to pass early in the afternoon.
Check miamiherald.com/weather for updates."




Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article3340526.html#storylink=cpy
Sounds like rain to me. Not organized but rain.



But hey on today in History Hurricane Wilma was hitting South Florida. So maybe enjoy the rain guys...

I'll be back if anything happens tropically. You really don't want me to tell you what I think on Ebola and how prepared South Florida is for it. Ft. Lauderdale officials said they are a sure the prepared to handle it. Lots of luck.. they are trying in New York to track down everyone the newest Ebola patient came in contact yesterday when he went for a 3 mile run, went out to a restaurant...after taking the A train, the I train L train to a bowling alley in Williamsburg from Harlem. This was all within 12 hours or less of him vomiting, getting 103 fever and would think somewhere in there he may have begun to sweat. Note.. he took the subway down but was obviously too tired to take it back so he went Uber.



http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/national/25cnd-wilma.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

No South Florida wasn't really prepared for Wilma... not then and probably still not so not so aye yai yai excited and no I don't really feel better. There is no reason to panic on Ebola, but to respect it and it's power to spread is something important. There has been a lax, denial attitude that it could not come to America. Seeing how people travel around the world by plane these days... "HUH?"

Ft. Lauderdale can't even handle a heavy day of rain they think they are fricking fine and dandy for Ebola?



Stay safe, go about life and be happy and know that it is not easy to be infected by a random Ebola carrier.

But if you have been in Africa treating Ebola patients and feeling sluggish and running a low grade fever...it might be a good idea to hunker down for a few more days and watch some old videos or play video games... push ups at home vs a 3 mile run around the park..........  Stay home if you are running a low grade fever as he was yesterday before it went viral...

Note in the same way that it takes time for a hurricane to form.. it takes time for Ebola to show up in your system so...no words...did they really think one temperature check at JFK was going to show ebola slowly coming to life in his system?

Oh well... no words. Not sure who is singing...but good movie moments from The Graduate. Love that line..."look around you, all you see are sympathetic eyes"   a lot of that going on today.

Enjoy music..and pics...  music and comedy may be needed to get through the news today.



(something sounds off...so does all of our talk on how prepared we are for home grown terrorism and for Ebola)

Dear Humanitarian Doctor...

It was very kind of you to go and try and help stop Ebola in Africa. I have great respect for volunteers. After a few days of feeling sluggish you really should have just stayed home, ordered in and waited a few more days before going all over New York City. 

Besos Bobbi


Ps... Pics as promised of Hurricane and Jordan who tackled the latest Fence Jumper. They had to go to the vet. They were bruised as you may not have heard this but the suspect punched, kicked and tried to beat off the dogs. Luckily security got there finally. Shame the dogs didn't stop the hatchet wielding suspect in the subway in New York.

There's your hurricane on the left.........


Thursday, October 23, 2014

K9 Dog HURRICANE Saves the Day... Stops newest White House Fence Jumper




Crazy day in news yesterday. The bigger news story in the meteorological world was some of the satellite feeds were broken. Models work off the satellite feeds. Good thing there were no big Category 3 storms out there about to ramp up to Cat 4 like Opal did...

Opal then....

Hurricane_Opal_03_oct_1995_2012Z.jpg (1200×1300)

Now in the GOM or... we think now.

Story and pic from Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/22/weather-service-stops-receiving-satellite-data-issues-warning-about-forecast-reliability/?hpid=z5


What a beautiful world from way up above....

As for TD9 it was written off as it lost it's spin as it moved inland over the Yucatan. Stay tuned for what will happen in a day or two or three.

Honestly, the weather is still there and it's all headed to the Florida Keys. The good part of this is that hopefully it will be gone by the weekend and the sun will come out and shine on Fantasy Fest. As my friend often says... rain and body paint don't go together well. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Key+West&state=FL&site=KEY&lat=24.5578&lon=-81.7832#.VEkLCvnF-7I

Check in often if you are driving down or hanging around down there the next few days. The rain's name may be BOO!


BIGGEST Hurricane news of the day yesterday is that a K9 dog named HURRICANE was one of the two dogs that helped stop the latest fence jumper. Not to go political here but explain to me please how on a day when there was a terror attack in Ottawa across our boarder in the capital of Canada protection at the White House was not ramped up? I don't care if you lean red, blue or purple this is pathetically nuts but thanks to HURRICANE and his pal

You can't make this stuff up..........


Crazy news day yesterday. A terror attack in Ottawa, where my oldest daughter lived for a while before returning to the States, held center stage on the news all day. A 3 month old baby was killed in Israel by another lone wolf terror attack as a terrorist drove across lanes of traffic into a train/bus in Jerusalem... horrible story. An old close friend was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer and I'm a bit numb and in shock. She has a large beautiful family, grandchildren and our kids and grandchildren have been hanging out for years since we met years back in Minnesota one summer.  So.. a bit out of it today. 

But.........promise ya all that I'll get you a pic of today's most famous hurricane..the K9 dog that helped stop the fence jumper and was slightly bruised up from his ordeal. 

Take care and keep watching the skies... hopefully the gremlins or hackers or just the plain ole mercury retrograde that is holding the weather satellites hostage will be gone poof later today.

Oh...and speaking of the heavens. There is an eclipse today.

http://shadowandsubstance.com/

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=suneclipse

Besos Bobbi

Ps... if you can say a prayer for my friend Miriam ...for her and her large extended family I'd appreciate it. Do a good deed... give charity somewhere... send good energy and say a prayer.






Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Does TD9 Have Tampa In It's Long Term Travel Plans? History might say yes... Models IFFY



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Close up on radar as the center of circulation is near land.

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This is a tropical depression and needs to be watched. There is a lot of hype out there on a lot of IFS that might happen down the road. Let's stick with reality and what is as well as looking at another system that formed in late October in a relatively slow season and went down in history as one of Tampa's biggest weather events. Hey...it put a kink in the Boom and destroyed all the citrus crops.

Things overhead on TWC.

"Models don't have a good handle on this system"

Funny. I bet the NHC wishes they could say that. No one has a great handle on this system as it is barely there.

This is why I rarely watch the weather or read what people say as I end up getting more annoyed about the way everyone speculates on something barely there and it blows my mind.

There isn't much new to say.

So many questions....
IF it makes it into the Yucatan Channel and Caribbean....what happens?
Answer. The convection will make it across and it's possible the circulation center will or it's also possible a new circulation center will pop up and take over. It's not a Cat 4 Hurricane it's a developing system.

Will it go to Florida?
Answer. Maybe but that's far down the road ...

Will it loop around in the Caribbean?
Answer :




One thing that sometimes says more than models that change on every model run are the Wind Speed Probabilities for selected locations. They do not predict who gets hit the worst, they show trends and patterns. When a city is added further south you know the door is open further south. Belize is in the wind speed probs not Key West. You see.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                

FRONTERA MX    34  7   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MERIDA MX      34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

BELIZE         34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   9(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

$$                                                                
FORECASTER AVILA                                                  

As for models...........

Mike's Facebook Page has lot of discussion. Right now it's all discussion and speculation but worth paying attention to as October storms tend to have surprises.

(like his page on Facebook & join in the discussion)

And the reason is because the GFS refuses to give up the ghost of a FL Landfall...down the road.



Here's a little bit of history ... I was looking through old pics this morning on my Facebook and found this picture from Noel a storm I mentioned yesterday. I remember when these models came out they reminded me of tulips falling over against the edge of a tall vase. Note I took great pics of Noel as it cruised past Miami Beach.



They came and tried to close down the beach. Good luck on that, but the patrol car did clear it "just in case" and then the sky turned this South Beach Deco color.. no filter, crummy camera.. just the way it looked.


And, that's what South Beach looks like with an offshore hurricane blowing the palm trees & roughing up the surf.

So where will TD#9 go?

Note from the part of the discussion that I am highlighting...the fate of TD9 possibly Tropical Storm Hanna is tied to the fate and movement of the trof.

"If thedepression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3
days, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the
global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
the cyclone survives its path over land.  On this basis, the NHC
forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days.

Steering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering
during the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward
for the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough."

So where do we go from here?

Well if you live in Tampa you are REALLY paying close attention.

at201409_model.gif (640×480)

The infamous 1921 hurricane that hit Tampa was in late October.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/1921.pdf




Yup... came up out of the Caribbean at the end of a relatively weak season. Jim William's at www.hurricanecity.com has said many times that they are more prone to being hit in a weak season. My words not his quote... his thoughts based on his in depth analysis of hurricane tracks and hurricane history.

Weak season. Well, weak season unless you lived in Tampa.

track.gif (640×512)

My family lived in Tampa then.... they saw the destruction up close and personal.


I am NOT saying this IS Tampa's storm. I am saying that it has happened, it could happen but first Tropical Depression #9 has to survive it's travel across the Yucatan and into the Caribbean... 

This is a part 1..part 2 scenario.

A lot of IFS...

Some good pics to look through from a great site about Tampa hurricane history. I look through these pics and wonder if my Great Grandfather is one of the men standing by the bay staring at the damage. He so loved Tampa Bay.

http://www.tampapix.com/hurricane.htm

Newest models on Tropical Depression #9


This is labeled "IF" in my pics. 

It's a real IF but an IF that many in Tampa do not want to see happen.

Big news day...


Heavy global news story with the shooting in Ottawa.
Multiple shootings of a terrorist kind.
Nobel Prize winner was to meet with the Canadian Prime Minister.
So much developing as news breaks out.. makes TD9 seem insignificant.
Note ceremony in Toronto would have massive security... Ottawa would be a "soft target"

But if it goes on to become Hanna and do Tampa ..it would be historic.

Time will tell.. 
Besos Bobbi

Ps..........yes I will be updating today as events unravel in the tropics...or are upgraded ... IF and IFFER it seems.

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