Jim Leonard Stormchaser Battling Cancer. Tee Shirts for the cause... 40% Wave in the Atlantic.
A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection than it was earlier today. Satellite images indicate that the convective pattern consists of a small circular area of thunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding features surrounding it. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS. The global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the vertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in shear. These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry air mass should prevent significant strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48 h, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt. An even faster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking the depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or on Thursday."
"The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass. The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72 hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given much weight in the official forecast."
vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual."
LOCATION...11.6N 43.8W ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
Fast changing situation as the NHC puts out a "special outlook" hours ahead of their normal update.
ABNT20 KNHC 211507 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the central tropical Atlantic. Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours. Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time however, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brennan/Roberts"