Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

GOM? Fred? September 1st Meteorological Fall. Tropical Update Tuesday


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In the tropics all that glitters is not gold.
And things that linger hang around longer.

A few things to note this morning.
There is a feed of tropical moisture in the GOM
The large area if percolating with various impulses.
They are moving towards the Houston to LA area.

Truth is this has happened several times over the last few weeks.
But we were distracted with Danny and Erika.

Note the Water Vapor Loop

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Shows a nice mass of convection nestled down near Tex Mex Borderlands
Sort of like a girl cuddling with her guy... 
..before he has to go back to school.

Let's go back and look at that water loop.
Note there is a large gyre sort of spin across the whole South.
Extends out into the Atlantic and heads South.


Watch the loop again.

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This is the beauty of atmospheric science.
It's all linked, all connected.

Close up ....

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September 1st, 2015


Today is the first day of fall or just another day depending on who you believe.
Meteorological Fall
3 weeks before the Autumn Solstice.
Yet this year autumn leaves have begun to fall.

The rain will rain over Texas


Could it develop?
Most likely not.
The flow is fast and there is no real center.
Just a lot of rain swirling towards the coast.

But, anything that close in ...
..especially this year.
Needs to be watched.
If the situation persists..
..maybe.

Truth is though it depends on the Pacific.
If the EPAC shoots off a large system.
And that is forecast to go ballistic.
When the Epac erupts it zaps the energy from the GOM.
But... you keep watching.

Because as Bill Read, ex head of the NHC has said often.
Things in the GOM develop close in and there is little lead time.
They aren't big Cape Verde storms we track for weeks.
One minute it just looks like rain...
...the next there's an Invest..
..a center...
It has name...and makes landfall.

It's that time of year and this year in particular.
Things form close in.

In another part of the GOM
The remnants of Erika remain.


The NWS out of Tampa calls them that...
...so I don't want any belly aching Erika is up in NC or SC
Seems there's a little bit of Erika everywhere...
...sort of like the Scarecrow after his encounter with the witch.
Guess Erika needs Dorothy to put her back together again.
Don't see no Dorothy... yet...keep watching.


Either way it is a feature worth watching.
Especially since the area is ripe for convection.
All it takes is one part of it to start to twist.
Long shot yes.. but either way.
Tampa is getting more rain.
Organized rain or just plain old flooding rain.

Again GOM Discussion this morning.

There is a surface trof near Tampa.
And a large blob moving towards Tx La area.

Keep watching. 
I'll be back if anything develops.

Oh and people are watching off the Atlantic too...
Remnants of Erika that made it up there..
But... it's a long shot and not headed towards land so ..
.... lets' watch the GOM.

 Note weather is locational.
In Texas they are watching their side of the pond ...
In Tampa they are watching Erika's remnants ..
...mysteriously being referred to as Invest 90L
Yet the Navy site doesn't show it. 
NRL whats going on ??


When I update this blog tonight we may have more clarification..
On if or isn't there an Invest in the GOM
Stay tuned.
Watch for updates at bobbistorm@twitter in real time.


The best place to watch Tampa weather is ..
..Spaghetti Models as Mike lives around there.
And so Mike will cover it faster than any place else.
Fastest gun on the Eastern GOM right now ;)


He's on top of it.
And so he should be.
If there is anything going on there...
...he will sniff it out like the good blood hound he is !
:)

As for FRED...
Fred made history...
Now Fred might be history.



Here's a link... click on it.
Strange movie I did not see.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8whX1-BlYX4

Fred is moving towards our part of the world.
It's a long journey.
3 possibilities in the order they most likely will happen.

1... Fred dissipates in a pond of cold, dry water.
(yes sounds impossible but so would be anything else
do not try Googling cold, dry water.. I'm not I made it up)

2. He stays togetherISH and pulls to the NW..
Mid Atlantic feature swallows him up for dinner.
Fish Food.

3. He somehow... gets under the high.. stays low.
Very low. Has a shot of getting across the ocean.

Fun to watch Fred.
Far away... hard to get excited on dreams.
NC has a fear factor with the letter F it seems.
Floyd
Fran

They seem to have forgotten Hazel and Isabel and the others.

Again weather is locational.

For the model elite ;)
The Model Lovers 


Interesting saying. Have to think on it.

Oh...you meant WEATHER MODELS?

GFS shows Fred getting eaten up as fish food.
Shows a weak wave that moved west low closing off...

\

Shows a massive storm in the PACIFIC...
Shows the only way the Atlantic gets going.
Staying low... playing possum and then closer in develops.
Maybe...or something spins up very close in..
...in the GOM

If you are a fan of the Onion and satire...
.....enjoy the most popular weather video around the Web today

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Happy September..
Summer may or may not be over...
Ps any typos sorry have a bad sinus headache :(




Monday, August 31, 2015

Hurricane Fred IN the Cape Verde Islands. Historic. Tampa & Charleston Rain.. A Look at the Analog Years for 2015 Hurricnes so far...




Discussion from NHC


First hurricane landfall in CV Islands since 1892....



Note 1892 and 1893 strong CV years.
1893 a year we don't want to repeat again ever...
1893 a TS went through and kept going to Georgia.
Long tracking CV Canes with US landfalls.


Note most are fish storms that do that track.
Not all.  I am not discussing where he goes.
For now I just want to enjoy him on sat imagery.
Maybe stalk him a bit on web cam ;)


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Note how he looks from far away...

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Note how the wave nearing the island bulges but doesn't roll.
Look how wound up Fred is... 
Love the morphed composite loop.

Some web cams for the Cape Verde Islands..
may or may not work for you...

Thanks Fishing and Crown Weather !!

http://www.webcamgalore.com/EN/webcam/Cape-Verde/Sal/620.html


http://www.capeverde.com/live-webcams/sal-webcam-pontao-santa-maria.html
Good history link and other links to learn more..

http://www.capeverde.com/history.html
More diverse than most would imagine...

http://www.wetterklima.de/cams/stadtcams/santamariacam.htm

Let's look at Fred close up on TWC site.
They have International Weather.. 


That's Fred, far away but still in our thoughts.

Up close we have local weather. 
Charleston flooding.
From remnants of Erika and her stalled trof boyfriend.


Boy when it rains it pours...so true.

Just another Maniac Monday...


Tampa and Charleston have the make it stop raining blues...

Sandbags are in the vogue in Tampa this summer.


http://wfla.com/2015/08/30/storm-dumps-heavy-rain-on-tampa-causing-flooded-streets/

Meteorologists have pointed out the rain in Tampa is NOT Erika.
So true. In reality it's another stalled out trof over Tampa....
...with a little bit of Erika..

Let's call it stalled trof with infused tropical air making for an Artisanal Brew.
Speaking of brews..
http://cigarcitybrewing.com
Available in the airport in Tampa..if you are flying thru..
Try their brew ;)


My favorite of course....
...bet you knew that one ;)

It's been a crazy year in the tropics.
Busy Pacific...which we knew would happen.
Busy Atlantic which we were not expecting.


Around the tropics in general.
You can wave bye bye to Erika and her remains.
Also note she let some remains in the GOM
Waves in the Atlantic moving towards Islands kicking up.
GOM steamy too...
South of Hispaniola ... go figure ...

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This is very clear here ...


So find your favoite loop and watch Fred do this thing...
..he will soon hit cooler waters and deal with other problems later in his life.

One of the things about weather that is amazing is how each year is different and yet on an overall grander level climatography wins out. But taken from one spot on Planet Earth an individual year can stand out for drought or record floods. Yes, it may average out over time. Someone wants to move to Charlotte, NC and they go online and Google "average weather temperature Charlotte" and get an average high of 70.8 degrees Fahrenheit. They think "wow, that's nice.." and the average low is "48.8F" sweet.


Averages don't tell the story.

It gets hot as blazes in the summer with little air movement.
Steamy, hot, sultry, Southern summers.
In the winter it can go way down below freezing.
Ice Storms, Hurricanes are possible though not probable.
It's foggier often than say Raleigh .. 
It's not San Diego..let's put it this way.
A really beautiful city. 

I heard Bryan Norcoss say on an average Miami...
.... has a hurricane every 2 years.

That's possibly true mathematically but...
you can go 10 or 20 years without a real hurricane.
Then a decade like the 1940s comes along and you have 2 a year.

An average doesn't really tell the story.

Do Analog years tell the story I wonder?

Earlier this year the Dream Team in Colorado put out a forecast.
CSU ... you know the one.
Gray and Klotzbach
They put up the following list for analog years.

1957
1987
1991
1993
2014

How did they do?

Depends which variable you are choosing to look at...
Landfall?
Intensity?
Majors vs Minors?

Let's look at the one that showed  long trackers.

All of these years had healthy Cape Verde Storms.


Carrie was a Tropical Storm just SE of the Cape Verde Islands.
Cruised by them to the South...
A long tracker I may add.. 


1987 featured 2 CV Storms that formed near Africa.
Before the Cape Verde Islands..
Not Hurricanes but still formation very far East.
Busy year everywhere. 
E & A storm similar tracks


Again 1991 a TD in the CV Islands.
Danny formed far to the East also.


Dennis formed near the CV Islands.
Cindy was killed by the unsual suspect...


Edouard formed near the CV Islands 
Bertha and TD2 formed far to the East.
Long trackers.
Bertha survived Hispaniola but was a fish storm.
Arthur danced near Ana.

If you think this is normal to have so many long trackers...
...you are wrong.

Many years nothing forms East of say 50 West.
Tropical Waves wander west and flare up, get named, die out.

And many years its common to have at least 1 storm that forms out there.

But if you pick 5 random years ... 
I'd say the one common denominator of these analog years is..
Early formation by or East of the Cape Verdes.
Long trackers even if they fizzle.

2015 so far...


I used Wikipedia to be different and...
though it didn't form over Africa we watched it over Africa.
Pouch study and all to be discussed on another blog

On a micro level...
Tampa and Charleston are in the news nonstop for flooding rain.
No direct landfalling hurricane but flooding rain.
Does rain need a name when it hits historic levels?
If your street is flooded and you can't leave the house...
That's memorable rain.

Oddly a little over 200 miles to the SE Miami is in a mild drought.
4.3 Hours drive according to sources online.
279 miles to the N Raleigh is in a mild drought,
4.6 hours drive according to the same sources online.

Probably not how long it takes your son-in-law to drive...
But I digress..

Even within a small area weather can vary.
One part of Raleigh gets snow..
..another gets rain.

One part of Palm Beach gets rain...
....another needs rain.

Weather is amazing.
Weather is hard to forecast.
Climo almost always wins on the average.

Looking back at 2015 we will remember Cape Verde systems.
One storm may form that becomes memorable like Katrina or Andrew.
Or one weak TS may wobble on shore Charleston or Tampa ...
...and make a bad situation worse.

A Cape Verde Hurricane hitting Cape Verde Islands.
Go figure.
So far Hispaniola is doing it's job.
If we get a storm that goes UP and OVER the islands...
...will see if the US gets lucky once again.

Prayers for those in the Caribbean recovering from Erika.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Note I'll update at the top with current breaking weather news..
...be it floods or Hurricane Fred.
Thanks for reading.








Sunday, August 30, 2015

TS FRED Headed to Cape Verde Islands with Hurricane Force Winds.. One for the books. Erika brings Rain ...


Link to Cape Verde Islands weather

http://www.wunderground.com/cv/praia?MR=1




Well that's unique. One for the record books. An intensifying Tropical Storm named Fred is forecast to hit the Cape Verde Islands with hurricane force winds. This year is so rich in Cape Verde Storms that they are battening down the hatches in Praia in the CV Islands to prepare for a land falling storm.


Healthiest wave in years... 
In an El Nino Year.
Remember that.
Hopefully Fred will be a Fish.
A cold fish... 
And if not his cousin SAL is ready for him..

Some great links at www.spaghettimodels.com on future tracks.
They truly are spaghetti models.
Models look like a bouquet of roses drooping.
Good discussion on www.crownweather.com
I'll be at www.canetalk.com as I usually am.

Here's Fred's track below from Crown.


Track

Most probably at some point in history a hurricane has formed that far out... but we can't find record of it yet. And, we've been trying.


And so the hunt for another storm began...
It was like a Safari looking for a storm..



There have been storms back in time.
Some have very little data to support the tracks.
Ship logs are available.
Of course if a ship went down ..
...and is at the bottom of the ocean we don't have the ship's log.

But it happens rarely.

The 1893 Sea Island Hurricane that decimated Georgia started....
off Africa by the CV Islands.


Note that storm did the C V Islands as a Tropical Storm.
Today there would have been a cone.
Tragic storm that went all the way to Georgia.

http://www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/pre1900s/1893/

One of the things that is impressive and fun...
....the collaboration online between meteorologists in real time.

On Twitter, in message groups and private email groups.
People exchange and share information.
I like it.

Mother Nature has surprises for us always.
After weeks of hyping a landfall by Erika..
Forecast to be much larger, stronger than Danny.
Forecast to go the distance and make landfall on the US Coast.
Erika falls over like dizzy dancer losing momentum.
Like a car at NASCAR that lost it's wheels in a crash.
Some say it was missing an engine the whole way...

Hyping a large hit on Hawaii by an INIKI like Hurricane...

Nothing much happens.

Then........Fred forms and heads TOWARDS the C V Islands.

Go figure.

Isn't Mother Nature amazing?
Tropical meteorology is awesome.



Let me share with you some facts about the Cape Verde Islands.


Is that beautiful or what?
Volcanic Islands. 
Desert areas...
Pristine waters.

Villages perched up high on the mountains.


Those villages will be in danger of mud slides and floods.

Salt Water.
Volcanic Ash.

Bet that's not what you expected..
If you ever really thought on it.

John Morales commented on the dangers today on Twitter.



They aren't used to having tropical storms there or hurricane force wind.
Our storms may start there and travel West.

But rarely do you have a season so strong ...
....that they come spinning off the coast.
Bound for the Cape Verde Islands.

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Oh look there is another one behind him... 
Healthy Cape Verde Waves...Setting sail every few days.
Well spaced too!



I've noticed a lot of sailors read my blog.

Enjoy this video. It' a sailing paradise.


And the surfers go there... 


It's probably not what you expected to find.
Listen to that wind...

Keep watching.
Can Fred get to our side of the world?
People are already asking...

He's so far away right now.
Wouldn't bet money that you'd see his face at your door.
But... only time will tell. 
And, time's name is Fred.

Last note on rain from Erika...
Headed up the coast.
Same as the last cone..
..except its just rain..
flooding rain in some areas.
Charleston is forecast to get a lot of rain.
NC and VA as well.


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Note you can't see Fred... cause he's hiding way over there.....


Besos BobbiStorm

Ps I said this morning the video from www.hurricanecity.com would be up.

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/71957303
It's on the website. 
Some good discussion.
I called in, we spoke, we talked. I talked.
My allergies are bothering me. 
So I hate the way I sound but... listen to Jim and Bill.

Jim is awesome. If he gets excited about a storm.
Trust me it's time to pay attention.
He wasn't soooo excited about Erika...
...tho he did cut some branches back.
Smiling. Good to be tracking and talking.
About Fred who is sooo far away...