Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, October 20, 2014

Speculation on Hanna Forming in GOM .. Florida bound?







Note the location of the little orange x in the BOC.

Notice where the convection is:

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

I'm showing the whole basin as nothing works in a vacumm here. See the flow Eastbound to the North of the convection?  See the bright colored blob moving away fast from the little orange x. That is convection that is blown off due to high wind shear. Until the winds aloft slow down it would be hard for anything organized to form. Weather? Yeah lots of it headed towards Florida and the Florida KEYS over the next few days.

Let's look closer at this picture. Note the red circle is around the actual x. The blue X is where Hanna is NOT formin today. The arrow shows which ways it's going to go today, tomorrow and eventuall.


Also note that something keeps trying to form down in SW Carib.. but doesn't.

Mike's Site shows the general information. Also shows lots of details.. 


The only real question is does it go towards Tampa? Naples? Key West? Miami to WPB? OBX?



Suffice it to say everyone from Tampa south needs to pay attention in the short term.

Rainmaker Yes. Maybe we should name it Rainwoman Hanna.



Great film. Sort of a present for Ron. My brother and our other brother Jay. Been looking at old cars, but I am digressing a bit here. Hard to tell the age of an old car if you can't see the whole picture.  And, the same goes for a system like this. Finding the exact center and the timing...the when it forms will tell the orientation of the curve East towards South Florida. That car in that movie has a divided windshield.  This system has a divided future.

Short term:
It's a rainmaker for South Florida and parts of Cuba... and the Yucatan.

Long term:
Maybe Hanna. And, will it be a Tropical Storm Hanna or a hybrid stystem? So many questions.



Note there it is currently on the NWS loops just a L over South FL on Sunday.

It's  a mystery like this  picture.



You can tell a lot from this picture. It's Florida.. Miami or Coral Gables or Miami Beach. Maybe Palm Beach. The girls are anywhere from 3 to 8 depending on who is tall and who is short. The lady looks a lot like my Aunt however not exactly like my aunt. I would like to think I am the little girl on the right clutching her as that would make sense as were close. It could be 1955 in which case that little girl is certainly not me. Maybe 1960? Still not sure and was the car a new car that was used for a road trip or an older late model car they were about to turn in. One friend said 1965. Maybe... girl on the left is wearing a short dress for 1955... maybe she out grew it. Someone is hiding in the shadow on the far left. 

You can tell a lot from a picture, but not who the person is unless the name was written on that back of it and it wasn't.

latest72hrs.gif (857×405)

A nice spin is going on down there. 

We can tell something is down there. We can see a spin. Then again we can see that something tried to spin in the SW Carib and then didn't because of shear.

vis_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

See the twist going on down there so CLOSE TO THE COAST. 

Do not get distracted staring at the convection in Mid-Gulf.

avn-animated.gif (720×480)

All a matter of timing and the next front to move down towards Dixie.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)


Where's Hanna? 


Keep watching. The next blog update will have other storms that acted in the same way this storm could act. However, until we have an actual storm to track we are just playing fantasy "what if" games.. 

rb-animated.gif (720×480)

Keep watching................I know I am.

A lot of people are watching the weather in Key West as we move towards Fantasy Fest time. In 2005 Hurricane Wilma threw a trick into the cog of the machinery there and the party had to be postponed. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=KEY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


Cliff Notes: System migrates Eastward.

What kind of a system it will be depends on things that have not happened yet. Things unseen ...

Is that Hanna on her way to Fantasy Fest?


Only time will tell.................


Besos Bobbi

Ps... if you think you know what year that picture is taken with the nice lady and 2 little girls... tell me. Lots of mysteries unanswered...............





Sunday, October 19, 2014

Will Hanna form in the BOC and head towards Florida? Gonzo off to see the Queen in England...


First I want to note that it's very rare to have a hurricane still be a hurricane this far north...

Gonzalo will be one for the record books on many levels. 
A hurricane to study for some time.. in a season that needs it's own book to understand.

So... give Gonzo his due. Not only did he find Bermuda.. a dot in the ocean.. he maintained status all the way to Canada and beyond. 

http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2014-01-01T00:00:00-05:00&updated-max=2015-01-01T00:00:00-05:00&max-results=41





Note when you use the magic words and unlock the future on the NHC website you get this image.


(Really dislike this you only see me if you click concept...)



Their own text says the following:

"1. A low pressure system is expected to form over the Bay of Campeche
or the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves slowly east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent."

Note the odds should go up with time as the models seem for now locked in on this development. Note the yellow area off the Azores.....has lower chances and we aren't going "there" just yet.

Online everyone is discussing it. Mike says it well.


That's pretty much so true. It's so true I named this blurb on my computer "so true" as we really don't know for sure as it's more than five days out ...but most likely SOMETHING will develop. Something called Hanna possibly...


This image as posted by Levi Cowan. I follow him. He's good. Getting better & better every day.

Shows a closed low...subtropical...quasi tropical..something kinda tropical moving towards FL.

It's a long ways away and for now we are watching. 

This is the area we are watching. Note we are not expecting anything to develop right now..


At least we are all on the same page...

For now there is a cold front that is making all the news in the weather world in the South, Mid-Atlantic and generally "up north" and there is a wave out in the Atlantic and Something Called Yellow X with a 10% chance of developing into ..something.  Strange year ya know..


Close up view of the Caribbean:
Clear sailing today...



So for now all eyes in the Tropical Atlantic are on the BOC and the GOM as models show that something could develop in 5 or 6 days that could... (note I said could) move NE thorugh the Gulf of Mexico vs into Tex Mex.



There is convection down there far to the bottom left of this image... w hile Gonzo is up in the far right.

There is cold weather in between...



Look at those readings... 55 in Raleigh and Atlanta. 66 in Nola.. Chilly October.

As for Bermuda. Thank you EVERY ONE for sending me pics of hurricane damage in Bermuda. It's an old story and I was busy with the Jewish Holidays of Simchas Torah. My drink of choice was Maple Southern Comfort ...even though I'm not the maple person.. go figure.

Memorable storm.

As no one does research better than the NY Times.. I'll show their story.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/19/world/americas/bermuda-mending-after-hurricane-gonzalo.html?_r=0

Good read on Gonzo and Bermuda.




As for where Gonzo and his remnants are going... to England to see the Queen..

Hurricane Track Information

Amazing dynamic hurricane filled with latent pent up energy... explosive hurricane.
Category 4 Hurricane crusing on high octane tropical fumes all the way to Canada and beyond.




Extratropical maybe but still a storm that will make an impact on England and parts of the North Atlantic.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]


As I have said before when a season is slow energy builds up and at some point something's got to give.




Now we may have another storm of some kind develop and head Eastward vs Westward across the GOM. A typical late October-November pattern.

We'll see what the rest of the 2014 Hurricane Season has to offer.

I'll be back to update as soon as there is something to update.

For the rest of the day... I'll be watching the Ebola channel and NFL football...and weather loops, of course...

If you believe the CMC (often made fun of but it did see Gonzo before the other  models did...) something will be headed towards South Florida from the back door that was left open by the last cold front.


Stay tuned... Besos Bobbi

Ps Last Gonzo quote....




Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Gonzo Goes Cat 4.. Bermuda and the Maritimes in the Cone

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Bermuda is still in the Cone...




East of Bermuda . . .so far the trend is East of Bermuda. Remember that Gonzalo is a small storm in that it's strongest winds are in a small area near the center. Note, however, as he moves up into the higher latitudes the area of strong winds expands and covers a greater area. So the immediate concern for Bermuda will be an issue of timing.

Good discussion from the NHC today.

"Smoothing through the trochoidal oscillation of the eye yields an
initial motion estimate of 320/10 kt.  A high amplitude trough over
the eastern United States is expected to slowly move eastward during
the next couple of days, and will erode the subtropical ridge that
is currently steering Gonzalo.  This change in the large-scale
pattern should cause the hurricane to turn northward by early
Thursday and north-northeastward Thursday night and Friday, likely
bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days."

A lot of "shoulds" and "likely" there but despite the slow forward speed of the cold front it should eventually pick it up. Oh, I said "should" too.. 

Either way places up in the Canadian Maritimes are going to possibly be dealing with Gonzalo.


"EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)"

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)


You can see the orientation of the front is odd.. slowly edging it's way East slowly.

Note there is still a system behind it, but the models are not in love with it. There is also an area at the base of the long front that may or may not develop. IF the system in the EPAC develops it would be harder to develop something in the BOC but not impossible.

The models on the system behind this one... are a bit iffy..

storm_91.gif (800×600)

Note despite all the discussion on the possible development in the BOC, Carib & GOM there are no Invest currently.

The main story is Gonzo.. all alone and doing fine in the Atlantic.

The only real question today, besides the timing of the front, is how high will he go?

As the front is delaying it's way East there is less shear on Gonzalo and he is still strengthening.

Let me way it again...

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

The picture perfect storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As good as it gets.. and safely spinning out in the ocean.
Shame the stock market is not going as good as Gonzo




Besos Bobbi

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Major Hurricane Gonzalo & Ana Aim for Islands in the Stream. October Hurricane History Lesson. Severe WXR today in the South.. Stay aware. A look back at Hazel, Wilma, Sandy & The Perfect Storm

Update... Major Hurricane Gonzalo


Forecast to intensify to 140 MPH...

36H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH  (or earlier)



Nothing to add other than the search goes on for Hanna


Please read on and learn about other memorable October Hurricanes... and more discussion on Gonzalo and Tropical Storm Ana as well as severe weather today in the South



You know that great old Country ballad "Islands in the Stream" ???

Islands in the stream are in danger this week of landfalls by the real thing hurricanes.



Let's look up close and personal at BOTH of these tracks. No, Virginia it's not your eyes darlin'


That's M for Major Hurricane Gonzalo aka GONZO


That's a H for Hurricane Ana aiming at the Big Island of Hawaii

You don't see that often let alone at the same time.

Bermuda and Hawaii are under the gun today and in the middle of forecast cones for effects of hurricanes. Go figure. Talking if that happens it's like Mother Nature is threading two needles at the same time in her old age. Mid October is getting long in the tooth for strong hurricanes. And, yet many a strong hurricane has formed and done massive destruction in October.

Let's review that list. People for some reason (probably the old saying) think hurricane season is September and that it's all over in October. No.. it's all over AFTER October usually..though there have been November and December storms.

A long list of memorable October Hurricanes:

Hurricane Sandy most recently. Beautiful Hurricane from an atheistic point of view...



If you remember Sandy was the storm that stole Halloween.




Remember Mitch? Became a Hurricane on October 24th...


How about Hurricane Wilma? Another October Surprise from the Caribbean.



I know everyone in South Florida remembers her. She made the Jewish Holiday of Simchas Torah difficult... yet we danced in the synagogue under a chandelier with flashlights on ropes hanging down as if we were in Europe somewhere in the days before electricity. And, kids were discouraged from walking around on Halloween as well ... as there was damage everywhere in October.


Wilma blew away the holiday sukkos as well as the Eruv.. even covered by Sun Sentinel
http://crownheights.info/general/1900/a-ritual-route-back-in-use-after-wilma-repairs/

Another good story of how people raced to help others and help a friend. I'm friends with that Rabbi.. amazing guy Ganzburg. Simchas Torah is the 4th quarter of the Jewish High Holidays and Torahs needed to be taken to safety after synagogues were damaged and people didn't have much to celebrate except for water and hurricane supplies. But we made do.. we barbecued a turkey over a fire made inside a circle of coral rocks (borrowed from neighbors.. it's okay we shared the turkey too) and well.. South Florida remembers Wilma. Note the time stamp.. late October.


(not my family.. just random people being helped out by others... )

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2005/10/hurricane-wilma-nears-cat-3-miami.html
(a honest blog post from Miami as we were getting ready for Wilma...)


And, then many like Joe Bastardi never forget Hazel. Another October Hurricane to remember.


Actually the infamous Perfect Storm of book and movie fame was another late October Hurricane story. Enjoy this look back at TWC doing an update on Hurricane Grace.

Remember..before there was the Perfect Storm... there was Hurricane Grace in October.







Great book...good movie. Of course all I got was a tee shirt from the production crew, but we won't go there will we??? Nice shirt. Yellow.. PF Yellow actually... imagine standing there at night staring out into the dark at the full moon, the surf..arms raised... ummm okay back to Hurricane Gonzalo ;)


So... let's all keep in mind that as the MJO is ON and the tropics have come alive in the Atlantic. There is talk of  Hanna forming either in the GOM from the remnants of the cold front slicing through the South and taking people's lives along with it... oddly saving the SE from a direct hit by a hurricane named Gonzalo. Go figure. Life is strange. Damage is damage. Does it matter if you die from a twister taking your trailer over the rainbow of from high winds and storm surge of a hurricane? Death is death.  Weather is weather. One way of the other.. Mother Nature is gonna get you when she is on a rampage and she IS on a rampage today.

I'll stick to the tropics as that is my speciality and the tropics are alive today. But if you live in the path of the storms today in the South take them REAL SERIOUSLY...

www.weather.gov
www.weather.com
www.spaghettimodels.com  (find your city ...bottom right of the page)

Stay prepared and aware cause...the Heat is On..


Let's start with Hurricane Gonzalo as you rarely see such a perfect storm.

Evacuating energy in all directions perfectly, no shear anywhere, swallowed up dry air and exploded.
Pinwheel Eye..



Gonzalo is forecast to be an even more powerful storm later today and as he approaches Bermuda he will make Fay look like a dress rehearsal.

Awesome modeling job by the awesome models. One reason everyone waits to see what the EURO says vs the GFS is because of how spot on it can be days away. And, remember the CMC was calling for this hurricane before the others picked up on it. Something to remember.


That diving, deadly system that is slicing through the South is saving the SE from a landfalling Major Hurricane.



I do mean this.. say a prayer for the families of the people who died in last night storms and take precautions for today's storms in the South. There's Gonzalo... behind it is a area being watched by the NHC however it is having problems pulling itself together. It does have convection, but the center is not directly under the convection. Also...watch the tail end of that front there in the GOM... Hanna may form there if it does not form from the area behind Gonzo. Where is Hanna??

I keep wondering is the cold front the lady and Gonzo the tramp?



Keep watching Mike's site www.spaghettimodels.com


Find your city... pay attention to today's weather if you are in the path of that storm. Oh..and I don't think everyone gets the VS ads.. I shop a lot there... awesome site and I am so proud to be part of Mike's Page.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/localweather



Remember when I gave the keynote speech at the Mariposa Cat Adjusters Conference in New Orleans?

boat

http://events.r20.constantcontact.com/register/event?oeidk=a07e7b3zea3f5cdb355&llr=8wkyw4jab


Met a lot of people who know their stuff who have worked many a hurricane, tornado, hail storm and more... they do awesome, fast work helping put the lives back together of those who were caught up in the drama of Mother Nature on the rampage. They will be busy this week and next. I learned a lot from meeting and speaking with so many knowledgeable, professional people who are the tops in their field. Very grateful for the opportunity and the good times we had discussing life in a beautiful setting. Grateful to be able to see severe weather through the eyes of people who help clean up after it vs forecasting for it. Both sides of the same coin...

So... stay on top of the weather today and check back later. Check in often. @bobbistorm on Twitter.


Besos Bobbi..

Ps... I'll update later today with more information or as needed. I may add updates at the top of this post as the information in this post is important and needs to be digested. Never under estimate October Hurricanes or October Severe Weather. It's the interplay between the deep tropical HEAT.. moisture feed slamming up into diving down cold, frigid air and when they collide it's just as dangerous as a hurricane hitting your town. Straight line winds can and will do more damage sometimes over a larger swath of land than a random twister.