Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Dolly Does Mexico... African Wave Has 30%


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The big story today ...the numero uno story is Tropical Storm Dolly in the Bay of Campeche headed towards Mexico. Most models take towards La Pesco, Mexico though there are chances it could pull a drop to right or left of there depending if any impulse reaches down briefly and grabs it to pull it north or pushes it a drop more to the south. We'll know more later today. You can watch the Upper Level Low behind it swirling like a dark hurricane pushing through the Florida Straits pushing the High Pressure west and pushing Dolly along with everything else towards Texas. No wildly strong cold front is plunging down to grab Dolly and she is doing what most BOC systems do... they put their head down and pound their way towards land as if they were a great full back trying to gain enough yardage for a first down. They are different from Cape Verde storms that are more like awesome wide receivers that catch difficult passes and run the length of the field for a touchdown.


CORPUS CHRISTI 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  6   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 22   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

LA PESCO MX    34 19  32(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
LA PESCO MX    50  1   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

TAMPICO MX     34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)


(It's a pretty set story here and happening fast in real time)

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Yup... going to Mexico... 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o9A8YYkxjw


Story #2

Orange circle up in the East Atlantic for a westbound tropical wave. Don't get too excited just yet, as we have to see if it will make it across or recurve in the Atlantic. There is the opportunity for it to recurve if it intensifies enough to be caught up in the atmospheric river of air. If it stays weak it goes west.... and ends up on a beach near Puerto Rico most likely.  But, it is there and some models do like it.



Not much to see there right now...

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But this could change... so keep watching.

Spoiler Alert... behind the lead wave is way better wave......


Yep... it's finally September. Good ole Remember September.
One should always remember September in the tropics.
Good to forget old boyfriends .. dangerous to forget it's September in the tropics.

What's that old saying.. never run after a guy or a girl there's always another one coming like buses. Or like tropical waves lined up like planes on the tarmac at JFK ready to take people to Puerto Rico
on cheap deals in the tropics where they may or may not run into our tropical wave while on vacation. 

Keep watching.

I know it seems quiet right now in the Atlantic and easy to think we can just write off this season, but I wouldn't think that's a good idea. Truth is because of current weather synoptics it's very probable that South Florida and possibly the Carolinas will have a tropical threat in the next few weeks. Let's say around September 16th, 17th something should show up and threatened through the end of September. Towards October I'd worry about storms being picked up in the Caribbean by cold fronts and plowing into South Florida where they have already had record rainfall amounts. It's very common in years where there is a lot of rainfall in the summer for the door to Caribbean Cruisers to come cruising up from the southwest. Most people do not know this but South Florida gets hit more from those sort of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes than they do the more feared WNW bound Cape Verde Storms. Just a heads up... 

Story #3 could be a home grown system hiding off shore in the strong Upper Level Low or something that spins up on the end of a cold front. There is reason to believe that both could happen...  Remember what I called the "dark hurricane" has moisture embedded in it. Long shot but always worth watching. 




So enjoy your blue skies today while you can as tomorrow you may be standing knee deep in the water somewhere... or buying hurricane supplies at Publix. 

One great thing about being in NY is listening to the new country station Nash Country. Love it. 

Besos Bobbi


Ps... here in Bayswater watching the water...the tides coming in and going out and planes taking off at nearby JFK. Awesome view really. This yard was way under water in Sandy.. just so you see how things come and go... 


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJbG7256ZLY


Going out....somewhere... but a beach will be involved.... 

Remember what I said about September Remember.... I meant it!







Monday, September 01, 2014

TD #5... Dolly Tomorrow?

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Tropical Depression #5 seems to be coming together nicely in the Bay of Campeche tonight.

Wouldn't be surprised to see it be Tropical Storm Dolly in the morning or sometime tomorrow.


Yup... that's it. Mexico. 

What more is there to say? 
This is the sacrificial BOC system that gets a name as it makes landfall.

Count a week... we can get the Atlantic brewing. I promise... 
if the weather powers that be.. be being...

In Bayswater, NY... 
by the water...watching the moon rise... 


Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Bobbi Storm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjEPX_WHNXY





Invest 99L Wants the Name Dolly


Our Invest 99L is about to come off of the Yucatan Peninsula and move over very warm water.

Close up shows a nice ball of convection centered over where a low pressure most likely will develop.

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Nice color there. Mind you most of it is still over land.

Navy site shows us a very nice visible image this morning.


Putting the visible in motion using the NOAA Floater.

Some thing's cooking down in their the BOC

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Impressive look to it this morning.

Chances have been raised to a pretty strong 70% in the next 5 days.
If it continues to look so good on visible imagery throughout the morning they may up that at 2PM.

I've been asked if I thought it would get upgraded to depression or name status. My answer would be most likely. Recon has to find a center with low pressure and strong enough winds. They are going in later today so we will know the answer by 5PM. I'll update this blog later today, but most likely later in the evening as today is the day we wait and see what this system really has going for it.

In the Atlantic... well let's put it this way... for now... it dances alone.


There are waves in the Atlantic... 
There is a wave that came off Africa and went flat...and low... 
(low may keep it alive tho)

Models all take the possible Dolly to Mexico. 


www.spaghettimodels.com


Leaving on a trip again... I know... been the summer of traveling for me. Kids.. we're taking my stepson somewhere so he can travel for this coming year to Italy of all places. My daughter-in-law is in Seattle where my other daughter-in-law is packing to move to later this year. It's been the year we all traveled to Seattle it seems. Life gets interesting. And, I'll be in NY with my kids there and spend some time in Crown Heights am sure and... will go to the beach with my storm chasing daughter if and when something blows up... and I'll watch the sunset over Mott Basin from Bayswater.

Might stop in OBX on the way back... depends. Going to play the return trip by chance and see what I'm in the mood for before settling down to the reality of Fall falling over us in North Carolina with each yellow leaf that falls off the tree in the backyard. We'll see what fall brings... 


If you have the time today... dance... enjoy this song. Ignore the Spanish commercial the song is in English..

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Look like............Invest 99L would like to get the name Dolly and I don't see anything else out there that could steal that name out from under it's possibly forming center. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS_bN5ECJTI

Sometimes you can dance and feel alone... sometimes you see the people with you... either way just dance...

Besos Bobbi
@bobbistorm
https://www.facebook.com/bobbi.storm.5

Ps... I wouldn't be surprised if some home grown brew pops up and surprises us this coming week. Nothing substantial but just a feeling.. when I can pin it down I'll give my thoughts here on the blog. Thanks for reading.. thanks for following me on Twitter and sharing your thoughts. 








Sunday, August 31, 2014

Invest 99L 60% Red Alert... Will it form in BOC? And... Sneak Peak at Newest Cape Verde Wave



60% chance of developing in 5 Days ...

The Bay of Campeche is an interesting area where systems that look weak over the tip of the Yucatan often blossom into named storms just as they are making landfall. The NHC is keeping a close eye on it and upped the odds tonight to 60%.

However to the naked eye it doesn't look like much tonight. It's parked over the Yucatan and should emerge tomorrow and blossom .... Time will tell.


Models:


These are your typical tracks for this type of BOC system. As typical and boring as this can seem to many who do not live south of the border it's worth noting that this batch of tropical rain worked it's way west across the Atlantic.... into the Caribbean... and now into the Gulf of Mexico. I think that's pretty impressive. The way the world works, the way the atmosphere flows around highs, from low to lows... isobars closer and then further apart. Really awesome.

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A lot going on there...keep watching...

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This image shows where the real action is going on inside the Cape Verde Wave.

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Time will tell if this batch of convection manages to make it's way across the ocean all the way to the tip of the Yucatan where we will watch and debate if it might get a name. Or... it might make it's way to the Leeward Islands like a few have done so far this season... 

It's the way of the world right now... one wave after another takes it's shot and moves over hot water trying to maintain it's convection despite very dry air. 




We'll see. 

Tomorrow we'll know if this African wave can swim and if Invest 99L can get it's act going before moving west into Mexico.

Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

Besos Bobbi

Ps.. maybe if they named a hurricane CAT we might get something worth talking about. Yeah... no NFL football, no hurricanes... I watched Cat Ballou. What's a girl to do huh?



Labor Day Without ANY Hurricanes... Anniversary of 1886 Charleston 7.3 Earthquake... & Hurricane..


Only tropical game in town with a real chance of winning a name according to the odds makers at the NHC. 


Some people...........are watching the Cape Verde Wave that is coming off of Africa... 
I'm trying not to be sucked in here and using a bit of reverse psychology..

Some people are watching the radar over Praia....


Yes... I see it ... it's there........nice, pretty colorful image.

Moving on............the old wave that didn't make it is flaring up in the Central Atlantic.


Same old...same old... should be near PR soon...

Note there IS spin over the Yucatan. 
Many mets say it's "mid level" 
which means they don't like it...
others say there is some "low level" spin
which means they do like it....

I'll be back later today... tonight....
when there is something to talk about... 

Besos Bobbi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BQLpRBDrhn8

Ps... a 7.3 Earthquake hit Charleston, SC in 1886 on this day in history...
while they were cleaning up from a Hurricane.

NOW......THAT'S SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT...
http://library.sc.edu/blogs/academy/files/2011/08/After-the-Storm-8-5.5.pdf





Friday, August 29, 2014

Caribbean Convection & Labor Day Hurricane. History of the Bonus Army & the Vets Washed Out to Sea..

In the Gulf of Mexico there is a large area of convection that has been lingering around a bit too long for comfort and needs to be monitored... just in case.



Introducing Caribbean Convection Up Close and personal on the new floater.


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Going wider we can see it in the Caribbean and the whole area that is convecting...



Seems to be moving fast...towards very warm water.

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The reason I'm paying attention to this little wave in the Caribbean that has the remnants of Invest 97L in it that has been following the more southerly model paths as it ... didn't develop so it went WEST. As we all know or should know a weak wave that doesn't develop moves west into the Caribbean vs taking the path towards San Juan and the beautiful Virgin Islands. And, IF something develops in the Caribbean it has to hit land to get out of the Caribbean. Either it continues west towards Central America. If it strengthens the atmospheric currents in place will life it NW across the Yucatan into the GOM or BOC.

Currently the NHC is monitoring it in a long term fashion. A sort of wait and see what will be over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Okay...that's something to watch. Mind you we have watched this area before.

Earlier in the week Invest 97L was being watched and models were run.



Right now it's just "disturbed weather" and it could get more disturbed down the road. It could even become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm if the conditions improve.

A lot of IFS but its important to stay informed of changing conditions.

Why you ask?

Because back in 1935 we did not have weather apps or a weather radio or weather sites online.

There was a weak storm moving west towards South Florida and no one was aware of it. Labor Day was coming and people were out and about going on picnics and spending time with family. In the Florida Keys there were Veterans working in "work camps" not much better than what most Boy scouts look forward to for a nite... but for weeks, months and they would take their checks and send them home at the height of the depression.  There's a long history behind this drama.



Cliff Notes ... many vets wanted to take money from their benefits to feel their families during one of the worst depressions in History. They camped out on the lawn in DC and it became an embarrassment for the President and was covered by the press...ongoing... Vets who had risked their lives in World War 1 who wanted help from the government...they wanted jobs. So they were given jobs... hard jobs in harsh places like the Florida Keys in the summer without air conditioning. Sand flies, bugs, thunderstorms...heat stroke. Because they had already had a hurricane while building the Overseas Railroad early on they were well aware of the dangers of a hurricane and having to evacuate people from the work camps down in the Florida Keys. A plan was said to have been made and if anything happened they would send a relief train.



Cliff Notes Ending... when it rains it pours and worst case scenarios pile up.

It was Labor Day. Government officials were on vacation thus slowing down the plan from going into action. The Hurricane developed fast Andrew style from a weak storm and no model saw it coming. There was no argument between the EURO and the GFS and not even the Canadian or Aviation model were around... in fact there were no computers. Maybe a few Seminoles knew something was up from signs that were handed down generation to generation.

And... when they finally sent the train the bridge got stuck and it delayed the train at least 30 minutes, probably close to an hour or more according to Miami Historian Paul George. By the time the train got there it was too little...too late... and the train and what was left of the work camps was swept out to sea along with the families who lived in the Keys.

Sort of ironic isn't it that the hurricane's track looks a little like the train that left the tracks.

The ONLY silver lining here was that because it was Labor Day a lot of the workers took off and went into Miami to visit friends... have fun and get a break from their hard work. The many who stayed behind were the fathers who sent home money to their families... the sons and brothers who didn't spend the paycheck for a trip up into Miami for Labor Day.

Some good links:
http://hnn.us/article/16158

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-1935-hurricane,0,5269672.story

http://collectingmythoughts.blogspot.com/2010/08/who-murdered-vets.html

In 1935 there was no orange graphic from the NHC giving a five day warning for areas that might develop into a hurricane with Las Vegas like odds. And, they do a great job!




Back then we had a train that went to sea... and when you were on board and you looked down all you could see was the sea. I've had old conchs tell me how exciting it was to take a trip on that train to Miami when they were 5 and 6 or 7.

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Note that in 1905 there were environmentalists in South Florida who didn't like the environment being messed with.... and one of the best said that if you damned up Florida Bay with the long railroad tressels that it would create a damning effect and create a tidal wave during a storm surge. And, that is what happened. Yes it was a storm surge, but a storm surge made worse by the set up that had already killed people during the building of the railroad in 1905.

You can read a long blog post from the past that talks on this further.

If you think there were conspiracies after JFK was shot ..it was nothing compared to what went on after the 1935 Hurricane. Many said that by the weather bureau saying it was a Category 5 it was a fake way of absolving the government from any responsibility for the vets as it was now an "Act of God"

However...the NHC has gone over that storm many times and they do feel it was a Category 5 Hurricane and they do have the final word.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2012/09/1935-labor-day-hurricane-facts-myths.html

The part here that is important to remember is without satellite imagery, without the computer models, without the forecasters at the NHC interpreting the data... weather forecasters were blind sided often by hurricanes that go through Rapid Intensification and suddenly appear off shore as a Major Hurricane.

We had great maps, but the warnings came to late for the men out in the work camps on small islands connected by railroad trestles, road beds and bridges.


Weather blows up fast. 
Suddenly.
Computer models are sometimes wrong...
... like the wave that they liked... and then they didn't like by Africa...

Andrew blew up fast.

Happens.

So... never ever count out weather for the potential to surprise us especially about Labor Day.

Go to the beach.................
Have a picnic....................
Spend some money and help the economy.
Make memories... good ones... 

And, keep checking in to see what's going on in the tropics...

Besos Bobbi

If you are in FL... South Florida... 
Take a trip down the overseas highway...
Mile Marker 82

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8yfdZTfTcGM

And check out the Pro Bass Shops where there is a replica of the Pilar similar to the Hemingway's boat he took up the Keys after the storm passed in Key West to be one of the first reporters to see the devastation from the Labor Day Hurricane. 







Thursday, August 28, 2014

Carib Wave Only Game in Town... Ex invest Flaring Up. African Wave on Hold...





NHC puts a yellow X in the Caribbean this evening giving it low chances of 20% down the road. It also has a yellow X parked over Africa. It's been there for almost 24 hours so wondering if their site is broken or it's being stubborn and refusing to get in the water. I've had kids..sometimes they get like that ya know??

I also get this all the time on their banner. No it's not my computer, every other site is fine. So maybe it is a bit broken. Strange line on the left of the banner. Hmnn...


The yellow X in the Caribbean is the old Invest 97L that was downgraded, but seems not to have read it's press releases. It's been flaring up for the last 24 hours.. possibly even the last 36 hours. Ole John Hope insisted on things sticking around for 36 hours until he gave it any credibility. It flares up, down and back again. Then again it's been doing that since it left the coast of Africa. Something I may add the new wave seems unable to do.. 


The NHC has this cool feature this year where you click on the 5 day graphic forecast. And, suddenly it shows the tracks. Personally I think it should be below the original possibly in a smaller box as most people can't find it and are confused why some people say ZERO% and others quote the NHC as saying it has 20%. A bit confusing... 

My thoughts?


There was a show years back my father loved called "Car 54, Where Are You?" and beginning to feel this way about the much anticipated Cape Verde Wave? As we say in Miami.. "Donde?"  The Caribbean however is not an area where you have to ask where is the other area they are watching. 

Put it in motion...

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It's oozy... it's disorganized... and it's moving West slowly in tandem (but slower) than the ULL to it's north. It's possible that the ULL will begin to tickle it and make it break out in convection rather that fits of giggles. To make that simple.. an ULL can and will often ventilate a stubborn wave and enhance convection. The ULL is what looks like a black cane moving towards the Bahamas. It's being pushed west by the tail of energy left behind by Cristobal.

The high combined with air flow around Cristobal zooming down into the Carib pushes everything west. Now note there is another system about to move East.

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Anything that does even begin to form will move up towards the Yucatan and get picked up and pulled up... somewhere. It's just too soon to tell as the models are not screaming orgasmically about the wave. In fact the models do not want to develop it. 



 The always excitable Canadian model that gets pushed aside for the seemingly more sexy Euro Model develops the ex-Invest in the Carib and takes it towards Mexico in the GOM as a decent little system. It does less with the Cape Verde Wave surprisingly.  The reason we go to more than 2 models is because they all show us something. It shows a strong high . . .

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I might suggest putting up a floater on this system. They have a floater up in the GOM still for the Tex/Mex Invest yet there is NRL Invest for it in addition the NHC has an X over this system in the Carib yet NO floater or NRL Invest. Hello? Am I missing something here? Yeah.. a floater...

Officially this is all they have to say graphically about it.




Currently, it's really the only game in town. Well, until the African Wave moves and is able to swim in the Dusty Atlantic.

Sort of pitiful looking wave there...

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Something worth mentioning tonight. Several people have been killed while swimming in strong Rip Currents from Hurricane Cristobal. Three people were killed in Hispaniola from flooding.

http://www.weather.com/safety/hurricanes/hurricane-cristobal-rip-currents-east-coast-bermuda-20140827

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2733477/Three-people-killed-Caribbean-Tropical-Storm-Cristobal-strengthens-moves-north-U-S.html

Just shows you even a storm like Cristobal can takes it's toll on the lives of the people who deal with it both up close and far away. Sad, but true and not all the figures are in yet. Slow moving large storms like Cristobal take a  larger toll than a well organized small Category 1 Hurricane sometimes. Just so much rain... so much flooding... so many teenagers who think they are strong enough swimmers not to worry on rip tide warnings. That goes for adults, tourists and well just about anyone who takes their chances when there are strong rip tides.

So... I'll be back tomorrow with more information. IF the wave in the Caribbean continues over night and maintains it's convection and or builds even stronger convection I think it's time to put up a floater and wonder if Invest 97L can come back to life?

Only time will tell...

Besos Bobbi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsKZewdhDtk