A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Joaquin Aims for Azores. El Faro Sunk... Gone. Carolina Tries to Clean Up. I95 Tries to Open.
At 11 PM Hurricane Joaquin.... was a still a hurricane.
Up far in the North Atlantic
I realized tonight why I like the Canadian Satellite.
It looks like a UM Hurricane.
This view also shows the very cold water to the NE of Joaquin.
Or take the red and blue view.
I was wondering why the 11 PM was slow coming out.
Discussion tells the story. Waiting on latest imagery.
Cone has shifted to the right side of the 5 PM cone.
Now headed more towards the Azores...
And being Post Tropical sooner rather than later.
Compare and contrast below with 5 PM
Note the Azores were in the Wind Probs at 5 PM.
But.. I waited on 11 PM before including it.
Note 5 PM discussion wind probs.
Wind probs always rock..
How did Joaquin remain a hurricane so long?
This is how Joaquin stayed alive.
Note how he tapped into deep tropical moisture
Compare and contrast the cone from 5 PM
Note the 11 PM cone is on the South side of the 5 PM Cone.
Hurricane Joaquin had Great Britain in it's 5 Day Cone at 5PM. Go figure. The little engine that could .. never stopped going. Long live the Euro...
80 MPH moving ENE at 29 MPH. Crazy storm. Dangerous Storm. Totally underestimated storm.
Let's go back to Monday Morning at 5 AM when the ship El Faro was getting ready to depart to San Juan in a "slow hurricane season" famous for storms unable to hold it together and a much talked about El Nino leading to the illusion of safety from disastrous storms.
15 people have died in South Carolina from storm related deaths. That number may climb..
33 people were on board the El Faro
48 people have died from and that isn't counting any final totals from the Bahamas.
This is what bothers me when people wax poetic on El Nino and how we don't need to worry on hurricanes this year. This is why it bothers me when they put up cartoon characters like Godzilla and write long articles about Global Warming and the demise of the 2015 Hurricane Season due to the biggest El Nino since 1997 in August or even early September.
The Ding Dong the Witch is Dead that went on this past summer has turned to chagrin and dismay.
How could a ship set sail into a hurricane in today's age?
Well the forecast a week ago at 5 am is shown below. Note the ridiculous amount of "which way the storm might go according to every model but the NAM" vs a hard core, old fashioned discussion (before the models were all public) of the basic problem with making a forecast for a still disorganized tropical storm. Note, many made fun of the fact that the NHC even upgraded that Invest while worrying on moisture in the Gulf of Mexico.
Okay I'm really not here to crucify the NHC on this one.
They did a good job with a very difficult storm.
A worst case scenario of .. everything that could go wrong did.
5 Days before this I don't even think this area had a yellow circle.
But that's a blog for another day.
I'm just saying
Dorothy got more solid advice from the Scarecrow.
And ...he supposedly didn't have a brain...
There's a blog post up on www.stormcarib.com that is worth reading.
But it did make a difference to 33 souls stuck on a ship...
.... in the eye of the Category 4 hurricane.
I bet if they could speak they'd say it felt like a Cat 5.
But what does a few miles per hour really mean.
When you are stuck in a stuck storm...
Great discussion Dave.
Thanks to me friend Pat who always makes sure I read it ;)
Such a really good solid discussion.
Compare and contrast with NHC discussion.
NHC discussion used to be more clear cut.
Conservative ALWAYS but clear cut.
Yes. I know ... it's written for professionals to reword.
BUT in today's world everyone reads it...
..as they watch the models.
Every kid on a Kindle can access the models.
Every great grandparents on windows can find it.
It's on our phones... u don't even need a PC anymore.
You don't have to go to AOL Weather Boards to find it.
You'd think the NHC would put up their own model graphics.
But then why would they compete with Ryan and Levi?
Just saying they were way too conservative from the start.
Yet... it wasn't even a yellow circle 5 days before.
On the 22nd there wasn't even a purple splotch let alone a circle.
We were watching other areas.
On the 22nd ...no circle, no splotch.
On the 26th... an orange circle pops up.
Makes me wonder if we had another Labor Day Storm...
Would the models pick it up?
Would the NHC be conservative in the beginning.
This in ways reminds of the Labor Day Storm.
What would they do in such a scenario?
The ship sank.
Bottom Line...the ship is on the bottom of the ocean.
If you can do not travel through South Carolina on I95.
Not much more I can add..
I have friends in Myrtle Beach. Worried on them.
More things to pray for I guess..
I know that area so well..
... can't imagine it looks like an inland lake.
As for the El Faro...There is a 225 mile debris field.
The Coast Guard can't or won't confirm it's from the ship.
Not a good sign. Very sad.
Trying to be joyous going into the 2 Day Holiday of Simchas Torah.
I'll be off until late Tuesday.
Safe in misty, rainy, gray Raleigh.
From my friends in Columbia, SC
Please go to the following sites for all your weather news.
Put your zipcode in or your city or state.
VOILA the weather is there for you.
The NWS may not be live on air like the NHC
But they are working through the night on your behalf.
On Facebook Mike's Site Rocks
Keep reading please below.
Update as of 3 PM.
Oil Sheen seen during search for El Faro.
Not a good sign.
Flooding and evacuations going on in Myrtle Beach
Columbia South Carolina.
Living up to the historic forecast...
I20 and I26 now shut down.
I95 closed in parts of SC.
If you don't have to drive ...don't!
If you are going that way..
...find a place to stay ..
No one is going anywhere right now.
Cars completely underwater
Governor of SC is asking people to
SHELTER IN PLACE
Same could be said for Bermuda...
Eye almost there... moving NNE on radar.
Flash Floods in Columbia SC
So much news today.
Charleston being slammed.
South Carolina Flood
Missing Ship with 33 People on board...
Going to lead today with the search for the El Faro.
33 lives on board, most from the US tho that's not important.
33 people are missing from a container ship lost in Joaquin.
Lost in a Category 4 Hurricane that was it seems underestimated.
Coast Guard is searching...
The news is always the same.
They are searching.
There are people behind the pictures of the huge container ship.
Everyone wants to know "why"
"What were they thinking?"
Again it was a Tropical Storm when they left port...
I'll talk more on this later ...
Just an update to say...
...they are still searching.
And in this case.. no news is not good news.
Joaquin at 11 AM Sunday
Straight from the source..of course.
The NHC feels the center will miss Bermuda.
But Bermuda will not miss damaging winds.
At least it's only 110 MPH now (only...)
And, not a Category 4 Hurricane anymore.
Seems Joaquin is going to see the Queen.
Or maybe Scotland.
But first we hope it misses Bermuda.
Bermuda is the red dot just outside the cone.
Sort of straddling the right edge of the cone.
A wide right missed Field Goal putting it in layman's terms.
If a picture is worth a thousand words, here's four of them.
Note the cone from 5 AM and 8 AM has been the same.
A near miss for Bermuda but Bermuda gets weather.
Why not? Everyone else is getting weather.
That is Joaquin NOW.
So news of his demise is a little premature.
He's still a force to be reckoned with . . .
Note how strong weather is on the E side.
Bermuda is unfortunately on the E side of the Cone.
I guess Bermuda misses the eye...
...but gets the weather.
Amazing... Joaquin went SW only to go NE again.
And head back to Bermuda.
Yeah, I eat spaghetti models and live at Hurricane City.
I'll update later today on Joaquin and Bermuda in real time.
I'll also update if there is any news on El Faro.
Let's turn our attention SE where Invest 91L is trying to organize
In every language the story is the same.
All eyes turn East in the Caribbean Islands.
Hoping the models continue to take this out to sea.
No it's not all about Joaquin at the NHC
They are working over time this October
Why there are Invests with such low yellow chances...
Back to the Flooding.
AS I keep saying it's not just about Charleston.
Columbia SC is having sudden flash flooding.
Is that redundant or what but I heard it on air..
The creek began to rise.
The river is rising.
I95 was closed for 30 miles earlier.
Still closed in South Carolina.
Stay on top of it if you are traveling.
This is a flood event.
A wind event in some places.
A high surf event.
Mother Nature on the Rampage.
In concert with El Nino.
And they say MJO is on the way
But let's not borrow trouble from down the road.
To understand the set up NOW ...
Let's look at this great link
This started as an art project.
Computer engineering students worked on it..
...my son told me that .. he knows ;)
This is the pressure gradient that is fueling this high surf problem.
The rains are fueling the flooding.
It's a dangerous and historic combination
Again Saturated Grounds + Wind = Trees Down
Trees Down = Power Problems
Too much rain in red clay countries + high terrain = Flooding
Flash Flood potential is high across the South right now, as it is upland in places. Soil is already saturated, additional rain may run off and cause new areas of flooding. It's a very ... fluid... situation.
In Raleigh the Neuse River is currently at 15.4 feet and flood stage is 15 feet. Flooding begins along the Neuse River Walk at the base of the water treatment plant when there is a problem. Luckily we aer not getting the rains here that they are down the road in South Carolina or we could have a huge problem. http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=rah&gage=SMFN7
Does anyone here still listen to the Weather Radio? Confession: I do. Not always, but sometimes while watching the Miami Dolphins try to play the NY Jets and while looping loops online and while talking on Twitter and Whatsapp to my kids spread around the country this week. I'm the Queen of Multi-tasking it seems.
You hear things sometimes that you don't notice in passing on your Twitter Feed or the local forecast discussion you didn't read because you were slicing and dicing a Hurricane far away and worrying on friends who live in the general Charleston area. "Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding will continue" Something about concerns for the base of a water treatment plant.. Even far from the training rains in Charleston...there are flooding problems. And, they are across a large swath of the East Coast as rivers fill up and eventually that water goes down river again...
I heard it said today that the impacts from the "RAIN" in Charleston may equal the impacts of Hugo. That's a blog for another day and I believe they mean Charleston and not islands off shore that were blown off the map in Hugo.. In NJ along the beach walkways, docks and some houses has slipped into the ocean victim to high surf. For my readers in Long Island...if you live inland you generally are safe. The areas a long the beach are a problem.
If you have a house in Wildwood NJ... it may be shown on TWC as they have had severe problems along the New Jersey coast there. Very severe problems. Christie who has little respect at times for weathermen (he's on the record) has declared a State of Emergency.
I'm sure someone will write one about El Faro and Joaquin.
We can only pray the book on El Faro has a happy ending...
In my own personal life...
Yesterday I opened the windows. I went out onto the balcony and watched the pine trees swaying in the wind and it was cool, very cool. Winter felt like it wasn't so far away and it was definitely Autumn. Then last night the rains came back, the railing outside was cold and condensation formed fast... and then it was warm and humid again. The rains came back.. doesn't feel cold today, raining and wet and a bit windy. Pines are still swaying beautifully.
Apparently the wind was strong enough over night to knock down the BBQ downstairs on the patio. After my shower this morning I see it's upright again. There was a wind warning over night. I'm less worried on his Football theme BBQ then I am the Miami Dolphins being able to score in England. I have a 2 day holiday that begins this evening and this morning it looks a lot like it did in Raleigh last week. I keep pretending I am in Seattle, it's gray but we have the wrong type of pine trees.. but I can pretend. My son sent me an audio clip of people partying their the other night for the Jewish holiday of Sukkos. Sounded like New York. Did you know there is a Statue of Liberty on Alki Beach in Seattle
That's not the Blue Ridge Parkway.. not VA not TN not NC.
That's Seattle. Google it and learn the story behind it.
They also have palm trees there and a nearby tropical rainforest.
Isn't it amazing that a place so far north can have palm trees?
Carolina palm tress at that.
My son and his family almost moved there but didn't.
They moved to an area near the college .....
....with a nice Chabad House across the street.
I love Seattle.
It does not have hurricanes.
It's a big beautiful world.
That is the point of my blog today.
A big beautiful world.
They have more palm trees in Seattle than we do in North Carolina.
And there's a Hurricane Ridge with hurricane force winds in the mtns.
And you feel like you are living on the Ocean but you are inland.
And, they have big, big, big ships like the missing container ship.
Except there the ships usually are bringing in Salmon.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Studied meteorology & geography at FIU. Been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm