Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, February 05, 2016

Crane Collapse During a Snow Squall in NYC. 1 Dead, 3 Seriously Injured.


Was a snow squall responsible for the crane collapse in NYC earlier today? Or was the forecast weather event not properly forecast?  It's a question I wonder on and I'm sure many will have different answers. Had they expected to have strong snow squalls would they not be working with the crane or  ???


Stories get told in different ways.
My son is visiting from New York and he told me about the crane collapse.
I was busy cooking for the Jewish Sabbath ...
...and guests from out of town..

We talked on how those tall cranes can be scary.
How often they spin in the wind and we are told they are meant to do that.

Political stories were on MSNBC.
Financial News Channel was running.
The Weather Channel.

Later in the day someone asked me if I knew the person who was killed.
I don't. Not that I know of though someone I know may have known him.
It's a small world in some circles.
His father is a well known pediatrician in Brooklyn.
Sad. Recently married ...suddenly dead.
Sitting in his car... he probably never saw it coming.
Crazy story.
Crazy cranes.

From the story below. 
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/boruch-dayan-emmes/383454/tragic-update-man-killed-in-crane-collapse-is-orthodox-jewish-man-dr-david-wichs-zl.html


The snow storm was what we call an over producer.
Models showed it might be stronger than expected.

A good reminder that you don't need a hurricane to bring loss of life.
You don't need a Twister to pick you up and toss you far away.
Sometimes accidents happen.

Could it have been prevented?

I don't know.
I'm sure the Mayor of New York will be investigating...
...how to stop it from happening again.

Be glad for what you have...
Never underestimate the weather.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. There are conflicting reports still as to if he was in the car or not.
So you can read up on updates but either way he died.
3 people were injured ... very sad.


Thursday, February 04, 2016

Winter Waiting in the Wings... Questions on East Coast Storm Next Week.. Models disagree as much as political candidates.


What a difference 5 days make. 

The top right picture shows a rather balmy winter in the East.
Rain has been the game this past week or two.
Next week snow may become the player.
In the 5 day Snow Forecast snow edges South ....
...it even teases the Carolinas a bit.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Frontal boundaries.
ULL out in Atlantic looking like a ghost cyclone.
Look towards the Pacific and you will see the next real player.

Yes winter makes a come back over the next few days. We have had the illusion of Spring in January but it's just an illusion. February brings it all back though it may be a sliver of winter compared to some years. Some weather pundits have put out the possibility that a good part of March will be colder than January. That's hard to see play out however changes are down the road.

In Florida , South Florida they are having the illusion of a rainy season during the dry winter months. The next forecast strong cold front is forecast to make it all the way down into South Florida. Oddly when I was there for a week or two it was cool, as soon as I left it warmed up. Go figure.

There is much discussion on the storm that is due to impact the East Coast late Monday into Tuesday before it exits off the coast near the Outer Banks or Del Marva or... no one is sure because the models disagree on specifics more than the Republican and Democratic party. Seriously...

And as with most Winter Storms be they the "A" type or the "B" type they evolve in real time. So tomorrow and Saturday we will have more information.

I'm posting a link to Larry Cosgrove's Facebook Page. He's very good. Very good with specifics and tomorrow I'll post some of the models. The models are a mute point right now as they haven't really agreed on much other than there is currently ample moisture and there are many questions as to what the end game will be. People in New England are watching as much as people in Virginia.

Excerpt below is from Larry Cosgrove's Facebook Page. 


https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

Take a look. 
At the moment he and many of us are sad on the passing of Maurice White.
Earth Wind and Fire.
Great band, beautiful music.

3 am... maybe snow and rain in Raleigh

There has been discussion about Friday's small snow event in places.
But even the websites don't agree for the next few hours.


Hmm 4 am til 8 am.

Big difference there.

Baltimore deals with a possible messy AM commute



So I'm wondering if we get any snowflakes.

They went from "maybe some flurries" 
to...
"just some snow flakes"
to...
"not much accumulation"
to..
"Ground is too warm, maybe on higher elevations"
to...
"a few areas might get a snow squall with more snow briefly"
back to..

"we most likely will just see rain"

So I ask...
If we can't be sure on the weather in 5 hours....
...how can we be sure on the weather in 5 days?

Sort of the way of the world when it comes to weather forecasts.


Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Ps... Remember September...




Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Groundhog Day Predictions. Winners and Winners and Losers in Iowa. February Weather Discussion




I've got a confession to make.
I've never really understood the whole Groundhog Day thing.
Then again I was raised in Miami and I never really got the Seasons thing.

Punxsutawney Phil seems to have been the clear cut winner here.
Rain or Shine.
Shadow or not Shadow everyone is watching him.
He didn't see his shadow and that means Spring.
How they figure that I don't know but it's a tradition.
So is thinking on Bill Murray.

What is it about Bill Murray and rodents?

My brother Jay loves Bill Murray.
Well he did I am guessing he still does.


This scene reminds me of a few candidates this morning who just left Iowa.
And did you know that a WAWA in IOWA would be redundant?
Did you know that parts of Caddyshack were filmed in Miami Shores?


See Miami a place where you can golf all year round...

When I worked for the City of North Miami Beach...
...they had their Annual Dinner Dance in Miami Shores.
Always seemed embarrassing to me... 
...but I digress.

There were 3 winners last night in Iowa.

1. Ted Cruz. Tho if he couldn't win in Iowa where could he win...
2. Marco Rubio for almost beating Trump.. came very close.
3. Bernie Sanders who basically tied and came from nowhere.

Miss Congeniality Award goes to Trump who was congenial in defeat.
Most Talented goes to Hilary Clinton who acted her way thru a slim victory.

The Real Winner of the Caucus was Iowa.
They seem to have found a way to get people to come in Winter.
And they spend a lot of money there... 
Seems a sneaky way to stimulate the economy in Iowa if you ask me.

Not a place most people want to be but all the candidates flocked there.
And all the men and women of the media followed them there.
And as soon as they could they hit the road for New Hampshire.

Kayla the blizzard descended upon Iowa.
Jim Cantore is dancing with Kayla as I type this..

Colonel Beauregard Lee in Georgia also didn't see his shadow.
He's probably politically incorrect this year.

http://www.cbs46.com/story/31115215/will-he-or-wont-he-beau-to-
make-groundhog-day-prediction

In Raleigh there is no sun so there is no shadow.

My weather people tell me weather will ramp up the next few weeks.

What will February be like?


Wintry.


So we have a way to go before the rest of the primaries....
Day by day.
Week by week.
Month by month we move towards Spring.

Spring segues into the Hurricane Season.

It's a crowded field out there in politics in one party.
And in the other party several people wish they had run.

Keep watching... 
It's a long, long time before the election.
We have to get through the whole 2016 Hurricane Season First.

The difference between politics and football is this... 
In politics you can find a victory anywhere.
In Football only one team can claim victory.
And there are only 2 options on Groundhog Day.
You either see your shadow or you don't.

You want to know who I am rooting for?

Carolina of course ;)

What does it mean to win?
Cam explains it best....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgf8bgfcqN8

I may be an Independent politically but I'm a Carolina Fan in Football.



Besos BobbiStorm

Ps. Winners don't go for the Field Goal they play to win.






Monday, February 01, 2016

Who Will Owe Iowa a Victory? Winter Storm Kayla Should Arrive After Midnight in Most Cities. But How Well Do You Know Iowa? It's a BIG State.


Des Moines is the capital of Iowa.
Again know I am only commenting on themes in this election.
I do not support any one candidate or party.
I'm an Independent. It's still far away from my world.
I'm just watching news and the weather and wondering.
One of my degrees is in International Relations.
Politics was one of my first loves.
So bear with me and well weather is topical today there.

My son who lives in Seattle used to live in Ames Iowa.

It's a big college town and they've seen the candidates often there.


It's a battle ground as is the whole state of Iowa is today.

The snow should begin in Ames tonight around 1 AM.
I imagine most people will be home by midnight.
What a difference a few hours could make weather wise.


So far Winter Storm Kayla seems to be kind to the Iowa Caucus.

Unless something changes drastically today Winter Storm Kayla does not seem to be attending any caucus this evening in Iowa.  Weather being weather and fluid could create small surprises but the general forecast is Kayla shows up when most caucus workers are home waiting to see the results.



Understand that Iowa is a large state and weather happens in various areas at different times. That said the weather in Des Moines is vastly different at times from Decorah during any given storm. When you live in Rochester Minnesota you hear about the storm systems coming in from Iowa and South Dakota. When you live in Des Moines it's more about Nebraska. Iowa is actually a larger state than Pennsylvania, though if you asked many on the East Coast they would think otherwise.


Geography is always locational. You've seen those maps of the United States according to New York City people I'm sure. As there has been so much discussion on how New Yorkers think I figured y'all could use a laugh.


I have 3 kids who live in New York City.
They cannot understand how 1 sibling went to live in Seattle.
They say it as if he took a wagon train to get there.

But today Iowa is about the size of Texas when it comes to the news.

Weather should not be a factor.
Hard to say... die hard types will go do their thing.
Some who think their candidate will win anyway may stay home and hunker down.
A lot of news people may be trapped in Iowa for a day or two longer than planned.
Can't imagine young voters eager to attend their first caucus for Sanders will care.
It's all a matter of perception.
How much people want to show up for their candidate.
How much they are unsure and will just stay home.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-
poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2320

A small factor maybe in that if the blizzard was not on it's way.
It would be a zero factor.

I'd have to say it may have a small factor.
In close races that may make a big difference.

Time will tell.

Either way Kayla is in Colorado moving East.

That's a Blizzard Warning NOT a Winter Storm Warning.


Hour wise it breaks down like this:


The snow isn't forecast to fall until sunrise in the NE part of the state.

Further West it could begin earlier.


Could more heavily populated areas in the West have a lower turn out?
And the areas in the East have a higher turn out?


http://iowacaucusproject.org/2015/08/what-types-of-people-participate-in-the-iowa-caucuses/


Good article from Drake University.
See NY map above ;)

Note larger cites with universities tend to have more liberal voters... 
Those out in small towns and on farms tend to be more conservative.
Could an early arrival in Sioux City and Des Moines have an impact?

Maybe.

Time will tell.

Keep watching.

For now Kayla is still far away to the West.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The Severe Weather for the South is now higher than it was yesterday.

Also note the Quad Cities in the SE of Iowa have the least weather happening.


Quad Cities seem a bit liberal.
Could that help Sanders and hurt Hilary?

http://marijuanapolitics.com/move-forward-with-bernie-sander
s-the-quad-city-times-urges-as-iowa-is-too-close-to-call/

Yup... only time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... There was also a great old movie .. play named State Fair.
All about the Iowa State Fair ;)













Sunday, January 31, 2016

January Thaw... Severe Weather in the South & Winter Rebounds in the North.



I've outlined the temperatures above 40 in blue.
60s in areas that often are frozen in January.
This is a January thaw... it's not Spring.
Though Ground Hog Day is coming soon...

In Iowa on Monday weather should not be a factor.



What comes after the thaw is a blast of winter once again.

Throughout most of Iowa weather ......

....should not stop anyone from going to a caucus.

Might be too warm for some... 

If the storm system was to speed up... it could be a problem.
But it's not forecast to hit until Tuesday.


Weather can sometimes play a part on caucus night
However people in Iowa are used to snow.
In North Carolina it would shut down everything.
They'd probably delay the primary ;)

Winter Storm Kayla.
Oddly its almost as warm today in Raleigh as it is in Jax
When you have warm weather in the South and Cold air Diving down.
You have Severe Weather where ever those forces meet.
Stay tuned.


Strong Sub Tropical Jet from El Nino will bring another round of severe weather.

So posting this reminder below.


 Winter Storm Kayla should be severe in the South.

And yet it will bring winter back into the Great Lakes.

Stay tuned. 

Tomorrow could be more a political storm than a winter storm.

It just may be a Maniac Monday.

Besos BobbiStorm







Thursday, January 28, 2016

Iowa Weather is Not a Factor Now But Could Be. Hurricane Season and Politics....Why They Are Similar. More Severe Wxr Possible in South FL.



In Miami... more rain, more of the same.


Drive to work for my kids this morning.


Drive from Miami to Broward a real mess.
Son in South Dade said FIU looked like a Tropical Storm.

So stay on top of the weather in Miami.

For the blog today I'm talking on politics.
The 2016 election is a lot like the Hurricane Season.
Climo vs weather on any given day.
Some things to think on...

Let's talk about politics and weather.
First off know I am a registered Independent.
And that is who I am ... 
I vote for the person I feel would best fit the job.

That said one of my degrees is in International Relations.
I was in Political Science class and agreed to take an INR class.
I loved it and declared a second major.
International Relations is heavy in:
Geography
Demography
World Economics.
Politics
Oceanography (really)
History.
Maps...so so so many maps.
Anything that has a value in International Relations
It should really be called International Politics but I didn't name it.

So during any big political event I'm entranced.
As a student of history happening in real time it's fascinating.

So that said let's  talk about Iowa and the weather.

The weather in Iowa today is a pretty nice day for Winter.
If there isn't a ton of snow on the ground with more coming down...
It's an almost Spring like day.
If the weather is even flirting with 32 degrees it's warm.
15 degrees in the evening is cold for me but just another day in Iowa.
I say this as I've heard news commentators say how frigid cold it will be.d
Obviously they have not spent a winter in Iowa.
Weather could become a factor but it's not as of yet.
Monday Night as of now is not a problem.
Tuesday it would be a problem.
Weather changes as often as voters minds in Iowa.
If its true and 40% of the people do not yet know who they support.

So let's talk about Iowa. 
It's not all about Des Moines.
It's a big state. People drive long distances often.


People often work in nearby states.
They may work in Minnesota and commute.
Or they may have a good job at the Walmart in Wisconsin.
They drive 30 minutes fast over open roads to go to Walmart.

Let's look at Postville, Iowa a city I have spent time in....
If you want to go to Walmart you can drive to 2... 
The drive to the one in Wisconsin is a prettier drive.


The yellow dot is Postville. 
You can cross the beautiful Mississippi River and go to Wisconsin.
In the same time it takes to drive on I95 in Miami to work.
Faster to get to Praire Du Chien than it does Miami to Miami Beach.
Things are just different in Iowa.

I read that Bernie Sanders got 2,300 people in Decorah, Iowa.
On the surface that's huge. Well huge for Decorah.
Did they come because they support him or are curious?


Does Sanders pull huge crowds from hard core supporters...
or...
People who are just curious what it is to "feel the burn"
??
Same I wonder with Trump.
Is his support solid or is he a mere curiosity?
Entertainment or the Real Thing?

Hilary pulled only a few hundred.
However Hilary supporters don't need to go to a rally.
Hilary supporters support Hilary.
They don't even watch the democratic debates from what I've seen.
They know they are voting or Hilary.

So is a factor the lack of thousands at her rallies?
Honestly I do think so.
Bernie is pulling them in... packing them in.
In small towns that I have traveled to ... he is packing them in.
Decorah is a big town. It has a traffic light and fast food.
There's a community college there.
https://www.nicc.edu/


You can move the video around.
Please do...incredible light show as well.
COLD tho. Honest.
It's all a matter of perspective.

To put this into perspective I was at a concert in Miami last week.
At night on the water .. my daughter was wearing gloves.
It was in the high 40s or low 50s.. felt like the 30s. 


Looks like they were dressed for Iowa....

My son looking around grounds before the event.
He was a sponsor. I wanted to see the sunset.
We went early.
He's wearing a warm winter coat in Miami. 
Low 50s...



There were 4,300 people at the concert.
Alex Clare doing a Chabad concert with other acts.
Coconut Grove in the dead of winter after a cold front passed through.
Weather was a factor or we might have hit 5,000.

In Iowa weather being in the 20s when they leave for the caucus is not a factor.
No snow, no ice, no winter storm.



Bernie took a winter vacation to Washington DC 
Nice photo op after meeting with Obama and Biden.
Was that a dress rehearsal?
Note he left his winter coat in Iowa.
Almost balmy after Iowa and New Hampshire.

I find it interesting. 
I'm not a supporter.
For a socialist he is quite the capitalist if you ask me.

The cost of his bumper stickers is high.
Though if you call they may send you one for free.
You'll never get off his list.
I once called Hilary's office in Miami.
We are still having a communication even tho I unfriended us...

As for the Republicans..... 
Trump is indeed the elephant in the debate.
The fly on the wall perhaps.


How much solid support does Trump have?
It's an interesting question.
He is more used to NY and WPB than Iowa.
Yet his brand of politics seem to sell there.

Time will tell soon.

In 2016 the two leading candidates for both races seem to be...
Two old angry white men.
Honest.
Who saw that coming?

My nephew who majors in Political Science at FIU loves Ben Carson.
I mean LOVES Ben Carson.
Ben Carson is his hero.

My son who is studying architecture at FIU likes Marco Rubio.

They both admit there are a lot of Sanders supporters at FIU.

So is this like Hurricane Bertha forming in 1996?
John Hope said it was too far out and would not form yet.
There were no blue dots in the Atlantic that far out for July.

And then Bertha against all the odds formed.

Odds were it would not form.
It could not form that early in July.
If it did form it would not get far.
It would eventually fall apart and not be able to sustain itself.


And yet it made landfall in North Carolina.
John Hope ended up covering it on TWC.

Weather is a lot like politics.
They happen in real time.
Anomalies occur in any given year.

Variables:
Stock Market
Terrorism
Being honest... a long way to go still.

Will Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders make it......
..... to the big show in November?

November is AFTER the END of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Think on it a it.
June
July
August
September
October...all over..
November with those odd quirky tracking storms.

We have a long, long way to go before this drama is over.

On a personal level my grandson who grew up in Iowa playing in snow.


Is now playing in Seattle ;)
They packed up and hit the road and never looked back!!

Iowa is an interesting place.
I liked it in ways.
More than I thought I would.

Can't wait to see what will happen tonight at the debate.
Weather is not a factor now.
Will weather become a factor on caucus night? 

Weather is a factor in South Florida again today.


So hope everyone down in the Keys.... 
....are paying attention to that line of storms.

But we do get thunderstorms often in Florida.
Iowa does not have a Winter Storm today.
Will it have one next week?
Yes but the forecast as of now shows it post caucus. 

It does have a storm of media buzz over Sanders and Trump.
It's a win win for Sanders.
Even if he places a close second it's way more than people expected.
Hilary was expected to be crowned the candidate.
Sanders was written off as a joke.

Trump was written off as a side show ....
...people are still waiting for his bubble to burst.

Oddly BOTH parties have the same problem.
They are both terrified of their surging front runner.
Interesting.

Could be a break out night for ...
Rubio
Rand
Cristie
Bush?
Cruz... how will he handle the center stage spot?

Like weather .... politics can change fast.

Can the Euro or the GFS predict the winner of the Iowa election?
I think not.

Keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... For those still reading this is a bonus.
Some say the season will be quiet.


I've heard others say if the fronts are still on the map...
...we could have an early GOM season.
I know I'll be watching the debate tonight.
I love politics especially in the off season ;)
















http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.de/2007/01/postville-iowa-looks-lot-like.html

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Updated! S FL EF-1 Tornado!








South Florida is under the gun for severe weather today.
Possibly tornadoes.

STAY INFORMED.

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/cities/miami.htm

http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/fl.php?x=1

NEW CELL MOVING THRU... 



Radar image of event.


Jury is out still if this was straight line winds or a tornado.


Note the line snaking through South Florida



This is breaking news.
I'll update as more details come in.

This was not unexpected.


When you see this signature on the satellite imagery it screams tornado.


http://www.wsvn.com/weather

http://www.local10.com/

Be back with more details.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... This set up will stick around for the next day or two.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)