A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, May 30, 2025
Alvin Unraveling.........But New AOI Behind It Yellow. In ATL Long Range Models Disagree.... GFS Hot for the Gulf... EURO Zzzzz Wicked Weather for Carolinas (GA & VA too) Today
First line in discussion says it all.....
"unraveling quickly"
Conditions become "hostile" soon.
But it had the glory of being the 1st....
...of more to come storms in the EPAC.
But there's more where Alvin came from....
Hey all storms have their day in the sun....
..or stormy clouds ;)
Nothing lasts forever...especially early EPAC storms.
You know I've been talking on how strong the waves were off the coast of Panama, after they drop into the EPAC and flare up in various little clusters well spaced apart. I've said on X and other places that it looks like we'd have an early EPAC year and it shouldn't be long before the first storm forms. There has been a cacophony choir online with all sorts of meteorological reasons that the EPAC would have a slow start by many and I've pretty much just ignored it.
Part of the problem these days on many fronts is that people go into a scientific experiment with a hypothesis that they have formed that is carved in stone due to their thought process on what the outcome will be. It's as if they don't see any other possibility other than what they have heard repeated and decided to believe as it fits the narrative of the story. I have learned not to argue it but to just let it roll and see how things work out. Often, not always, I'm right as I'm very good at reading various satelllite imagery and tempering them with some hurricane history and a knowledge of the biases of various models. We have come so far in tropical meteorology and yet we still have a long ways to go. Part of the allure of tropical forecasting is the many hiccups and bumps along the way that surprise us be it rapid intensification or a stubborn system that overachieves and is stronger than any model showed.
The atmosphere is fluid, changing and rearranging always fast or slow and sometimes confounding us with surprises or delays.
Remember that when a forecast seems like a bust, but it just takes longer than expected for a tropical wave to develop into a hurricane or to make the turn as forecast. Also now that we follow the AOI aka Invests as many of us did for years before they became public.......by the time one forms it feels as if we have been tracking it for 2 weeks. Feelings are not always facts. We watched an Invest for what seemed like forever before Milton got it going, and once it did it was very impressive.
Looks smoother and easier on the map in retrospect.
Down the tropical road in the Atlantic.
Signals conflict on development.
I can do this 2 ways so I will.
@iCyclone whose words and photos do me in...
...as much as his chasing.
The Chaser Dude has a real way with words..
..and photography.
This says it all ...if you know you know.
Mike, my friend who I can listen to forever...
...posted this today.
Note GFS hot, heavy and ready to go....
..other models not so fast.
Guess which one is the GFS LOL.
I laugh at it but I always look...
..sometimes timing is off (haha)
But it does sniff out a pattern....
Again below...nothing is the EURO
SOMETHING is the GFS
June 10th time frame
(use with a lot of sea salt...)
Remember........
You only see if you watch the GFS
Other models vaguely quiet.
Hint of some convection in various places.
But if you want thrills....
...GFS is your model ;)
Personally I have a threat for heavy weather today.
Alvin Forms! 1st Tropical Storm of the 2025 Hurricane Season... in the Eastern Pacific. A Look at Short Term in the Tropics. MJO vs SAL & Wind Shear.
There was a battle going on here....
TD ONE-E
Wanted to be Alvin!
And, Alvin it is!
Worked hard for the name this morning!
Lots of color, high towers trying to hold on..
.... getting some power
Dvorak looks down into the layers.
With XRAY vision like Superman!
Easily confirms it is a Tropical Storm!
Lotta consolidation going on this morning!
People ask me why I talk on the Dvorak.
It's a tool that measures intensity.
Note discussion from NHC today.
Alvin is also easy to discern on Earthnull...
Cone below.
Forecast to fall apart due to cooler water.
Again even when that happens....
...the moisture goes somewhere.
So where does it go?
The Mimic knows!
Gets caught up in the flow....
...as a "remnant low"
A look at the Mimic shows us how much moisture there is in Alvin and that moisture is going to be sucked up into the SW and further up into the Plains and eventually some of that DNA will move East with the flow.
Tropical Storms and Hurricanes do not exist so chasers can chase them, they provide deep tropical moisture up into areas that often need it for American's growing season... farms receive nourishing rain. That's why we are a top grain producer and have an abundance of fresh food. Not all countries are so lucky! But as they are there.........therefore we chase, we track and we talk about them.
Going wider..........
Let's break this down into parts. Alvin is Stage Left...waiting in the wings to do it's thing! The reason it most likely will stay at TS status is wind shear that can be seen pulling the tops of it's clouds off into the BOC.
Center Stage you see fronts moving across the USA on their way eventually into the Atlantic. Sometimes a strong low flares up once into the water, but that's foreshadowing what may or may not happen down the road. In the Caribbean you can see the clouds from 8:30 to 2:30 as the clock goes pulling apart, shredding waves that are trying to get into the Carib. Further East what we call Stage Right there are more tropical waves moving Westbound despite heavy Saharan Dust in the MDR (Main Development Region) before they get sheared at the entrance to the Caribbean. June in 2 days is not totally too soon, but definitely Mother Nature isn't making it easy.
Again the formula for formation... cut down to basics ....for tropical development.
Warm water is needed it's fuel for formation.
Rain aka Convection is needed.
Low Pressure that forms from the heavy convection often is the beginning.
Tropical Waves carry convection and lower pressures moving into an area for favorable development!.
Base of old fronts that go dead in tropical waters giving new life to a tropical low that can form there.
What stops storms from forming?
Cooler Water
Dry Air
Wind Shear.
Saharan Dust and or smoke from huge fires....
Those are the factors that work against tropical development.
Some feel the MJO is a game changer. More on that tomorrow.
Basically the MJO moves along across Planet Earth and when it gets into our tropics formation is easier.
June is often too soon for tropical waves to become Beryl, but hey it can happen. June is often home grown, close in storms that form from left over tropical waves or old frontal boundaries and suddenly swirl close in and sometimes can become hurricanes.
Good colorful map. Easy to understand.
Note the Gulf & the Gulfstream generate formation.
Look how tightly they are clustered there.
A few out in the Atlantic somewhere farther away.
A few African Tropical Waves got some early fame!!
Where do they go?
@iCyclone put up a map on X today. A good map!
Note the hurricanes to the East... go East.
Often a late season cold front grabs it...
...or the High suddenly pulls East.
Allowing it to trace the High Pressure.
On the left you can see where others go.
Stronger High.
Some move North towards old fronts.
Some get pushed West by a strong High.
And, yes we used to get June Hurricanes.
June Tropical Storms are more common.
Again...fun to watch African Waves
But most June systems form close in!
As for down the short term road.
Another EPAC system should form.
This would be NEXT week!
Same spot.
When you're hot you're hot!
Atlantic is not.....
SAL owns the MDR
The High edges into the Gulf.
But models change from day to day.
Generally when things are spinning in the EPAC in early June, our side of the world is a bit quieter. You can usually count a week to ten days and see development in the Carib/Gulf. Much depends on the High Pressure and SAL that's usually King of the Tropical Road in June! Why the rhyme goes June too soon.
The MJO travels East into the Carib and when that happens in a week or so we will know if that will help provide a spark to light the fire. The water may be hot, but hot water alone doesn't make a hurricane as I said up above.
Have a good day!
Get a plan!
Buy canned fruit, chicken, tuna and vegetables. When the power is out and the food in the fridge has gone rotten you will thank me. Oh, and buy a hand can opener or spend the extra money for those pull top cans. Obviously water, first aid supplies, batteries for an old battery operated radio or one you might want to buy on Amazon soon. Have extra meds on hand. Stores close. Pharmacies close. Life isn't normal for a long, long time. Old timers know. Ask a local old timer. And speaking of things not being normal for a long time. Mike showed this image from this week..........now...........current image and things on the Gulf Coast have not totally been cleaned up yet from Helene and Milton last year. Again I said "nothing is normal for a long time" and even if you have a generator there are no street lights, no street signs and takes a store a good week to restock produce at Publix after the power goes on. That's why I say.......buy canned food! Beef Jerky works too!
TD ONE-E Forms.....Waiting on Alvin....... Rumors of Possibilities in Carib/Gulf Way Down the Road.
Note that's what people ask me...
..all the newbies who moved to Florida.
Energy from it may get up into the US...
...will see down the road where it goes.
It's in an area that will have low shear and the water is warm, so it should get the name Alvin sometime in the next 24 hours. Currently the NHC keeps it as a Tropical Storm, but if you have ever played poker with the NHC you know they always open with a low bid. Can't say it will stay a tropical storm, but will know soon enough what it's got under the hood.
How wild. Advisories, discussion and Cones....
Actually looks much better than this morning.
There's a center.
Bit bottom heavy but
...you can see banding on the top.
A center.
It's breathing!
3 days and 2 hours until midnight on June 1st, 2025
Please get a plan for 2026 Hurricane Season.
Please keep reading if you have not done so...
***
From earlier this afternoon...
90E has a window of opportunity to be Alvin.
It's close.
Waiting to see what NHC says.
When they make that call.
Some models show it's chances slipping away...
...others ...okay the GFS lol...
Turn 90E into a tightly wound storm.
Could we get Hurricane Alvin?
Currently waiting on a TD
Gotta tell you...
..this model run may be
the best it'll ever be.
It's not the song I was thinking of...
...but will go with the purple clouds.
It's close.
As anyone that has been reading this blog knows I'm an African Wave girl... can watch a westbound tropical wave for days and never get bored. CAG storms are a different breed, be they in the EPAC or in the Atlantic Basin.
I'll update this blog if and when NHC upgraded this from an Invest to a TD or storm.
Moving on to the Atlantic side of the basin that most of my readers care about, although there's always those one or two that obsess endlessly over Aussie Cyclones but let's look at what we need to know.
Alvin Almost a Done Deal. Possible Tropical Games in Atlantic ... Models Be Modeling. I'm Going Shopping... But Not for Hurricane Supplies Today LOL Who Am I? Do You Know? IYKYK
Gonna do something different today and go totally Old School Bobbi and write more and post less images. First off the images change faster than the moves of Mahi Shriners dancing in an Independence Day Parade. And, Independence Day on July 4th is our next big holiday weekend. Wondering what letter we will be on in the Atlantic and whether we get early development or a delayed start to the 2025 Hurricane Season.
I'm currently underneath that blue blob on the image above, however looking out the window it's a wall of cotton white clouds in all directions. I'm find with that as it's keeping the temperatures down and I'm not in a rush to get to knee deep in summer as I was raised in perpetual summer in Miami. The day reminds me of LA when a late night and early morning cloud bank lingered before evaporating for a few hours around Noon and that's fine with me.
Alvin is on the verge of forming. Systems that develop in the CAG (Central American Gyre) have an awkward phase in development that's much like watching paint dry. Plain and simple. Parts of the system begin to look as if they are going to swirl around a developing center and then it looks crappy. Usually, just about the time it looks crappy is when it suddenly develops. This applies on both sides of the CAG be it in the EPAC or in the BOC ...that little cradle region in the Gulf. As it's currently at 90% in the 2 day and the 5 day ....any day now it'll get designated.
Listening to music. I didn't say I wouldn't post lots of music that matches my mood.
The real question is what our soon to be Alvin will do down the line. Sometimes they swirl near the coastline, dance parallel and then fade away. Other times they take aim at the coastline and then where does all the tropical moisture go? Does it pump up energy in a system moving across the country and get injected into that system creating more weather havoc? Or does some of it's DNA merge across Mexico and hook up with a weak area of low pressure and take on a life of it's own? Truth is currently we don't know. Recently the GFS has taken a hurricane towards Florida and one up along the Gulf's low coastline and sometimes hooks it off into the Bay of Campeche. Personally I love getting rid of our first BOC sacrificial system that is offered up to the spirits of the Mayans and then we can move on to the real heart of the Hurricane Season. Seasons that don't have a sacrificial system swirling in the BOC towards land are usually tricky. Keep that in mind.
Who am I for new comers? Born and raised in Miami but I've lived in NYC and LA. LA in the 1980s was awesome and I'm glad I'm old enough to know how awesome LA was in the 80s. 1990s I was back 'home" in Miami. I come from a Jewish background so I'm offline on Satuday and for various holidays that coincide with the start of the hurricane season often but cheesecake and ice cream buffets at the Temple make you forget anything else........almost. In September this also is an issue as the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane made landfall on Yom Kippur aka "Day of Atonement" and I'm guessing many flappers from Chicago and New York pretty much thought the world was ending and they better atone so there you go.
I'm a writer. I dance as a hobby. I do weather as part of my life skills and by that I mean I research, lecture, write and sometimes chase weather. I specialize in Hurricane History and I love maps. Maps sucked me in as a child to weather in that I was already obsessed when they'd show weather maps on the TV where I'd stand in awe as I love maps. Nuff said on maps. I dance. I watch TWC (when I do) on mute with closed captions so I can turn it up if anything is interesting as I'm otherwise listening to music or some video. I'm a multitasker tho I'd say most chasers are......
I was raised in a very Southern area and can be very Redneck old Southen as my Grandma Mary (who was really special as all know by now) and quite the Southern Belle who'd walk the little dog and stare up at the sky like the guy in Twister watching the clouds debating if all hell was gonna break loose any minute. As a girl growing up in Tampa...........ball lightning came into her house through the chimney (that's what she said) and danced around the house chasing her under her bed. After that she had quite the obsession with watching for thunderstorms in Tampa which can take up literally your whole day. My Great Grandfather was said to sit out on the porch staring out at "The Gulf" (that's what they called it always) watching thunderheads build up in awe. Weather is in my blood obviously.
Lastly I have a degree in English that I obviously don't use here as my grammar sucks more than my mother's math sucked, but it's a blog and online is online it's not the Great American Novel. I have a degree in International Relations which involved a while lotta maps ;) and most of a Masters with an emphasis in Post WW2 and Russian Studies yet I never wrote the paper as I got married, moved to California and had a whole bunch of kids and worked with people who were resettlling from Russia and Iran into the LA community. Definitely an International edge to my work HAHA tho to be honest I put on Women's Programs in LA so think fashion, music, food and fundraising more than anything else. It was the best of times..... Then I moved back to Miami and remembered I get headaches during the rainy season. It didn't rain much in LA (Melrose to be exact) so I kind of forgot about the headaches.
Warning I can go long on the Kurds so don't even ask me. Did you know Kurdish Women are tought Fighter Pilots in a part of the world where most women cannot wear pants let alone show their cute new haircut. But the Kurds do so get lost in the shuffle.
Back to the blog. There's not much to say.
I have gone on endlessly about being Hurricane Ready and preparing for Hurricane Season. Either you believed me and have an overabundance of tuna and a can opener and peanut butter and crackers or you will show up when there nothing left on the shelves of your local Publix.
Oh heritage... well I met a few Ancestry Cousins that are meteorologists and now good friends. Obviously in my blood as is photography. Distantly related on my Grandma Mary's Morris side to the photographer who showed us what the aftermath of the Galveston Hurricane was ... his family was originally listed as dead but they survived. Go figure.
The old country was "Philly"
After getting Malaria in Key West...
...they went North for a year or so.
Originally England.... somewhere. Manchester?
Key West in the 1800s did not have running water.
Just cistern water which had larvae in it often.
They moved to Tampa as Tampa had running water.
Now you know the rest of the story.
So while waiting for Alvin to get it's act together.........and waiting to see how the next set of model runs play out.... I'm going shopping.
As I was raised in a part of Florida where most people had airboats parked in their front yard to go fishing or hunting in the Glades... I'm a big Redneck... very Southern. I'm also a bit bouchie and like nice things that call to my artsy side so Lord only knows what I'll buy later today as I'm somewhere with real shops, real stores and a wide array of life that's way wider than what I normally see in Raleigh.
Raleigh is good. Raleigh is nice. Raleigh is polite. Raleigh is growing, yet traffic isn't anything like Miami. I got remarried and moved to Raleigh. Really. Tho I am in Miami often visiting the kids and best friend.
So now you know way more than you need to know about me.
Oh, I'm also a Capricorn but I'm a fun Capricorn as some people (usually Sagitarrians) think Capricorns are boring. We are not. We are practical but fun. Really!
Have a blessed, beautiful day.
It's all a waiting game right now as Saharan Dust colors white cars a dusty rose. The High sets up and at times flirts with The Gulf (that's what Grandma Mary called it) and then inhales and snaps back into the Atlantic just East of The Gulfstream and allows hurricanes to barely slide by Miami the way Hurricane Floyd did on it's way to North Carolina. Sometimes it does not and it builds in and South Florida gets slammed with a Hurricane Andrew or Betsy. Note if South Florida gets hit from like Andrew and Betsy and Katrina... you may want to pay Close attention in Louisiana and Mississippi!
Just saying.
Not proofing.
Have places to go and things to do today...........
Once a season in the beginning I do this and hope very few people read it other than the Sagitarrian who thinks Capricorns are boring. Note another Sagitarrian friend who has his Mercuty in Capricon conjunct my Mercury in Capricon is very funny and thinks I'm funny so hahaha. I like astrology, lots of maps.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
X mostly weather
Elsewhere whatever.
I do to Insta more for my kids and some friends so who knows what I post.
I do post on Bluesky more so when it's busy.
Ps.........I have a few friends who write. I joke I'm a Muse yet it really is true and don't ask as I don't amuse and tell. But I met a nice young girl in a bookstore yesterday in Concord Mills where I bought 2 purple pens because they write smooth and I was in the mood. When I mentioned I like 1.0 pens vs fine and it's hard to find pens I enjoy she totally understood and went long on explaining how they write smoother and dark and they "flow" and I smiled and said "so you're a writer" and she looked a bit sad and said "well I used to be" and I told her....(note not grammar rules here) ...I told her "well you ARE a writer, you just aren't writing at the moment" and she stared back at me kind of poignantly and said "you're right" as if some light went off in her head suddenly. I smiled and nodded and said ..."yes, you are a writer you're just not writing at the moment" and she smiled the way people do when they meet a kindred soul and I thought.. "wow there you go again pushing people to write" and then I smiled too with maybe a giggle.
Oh I lived in LA near where they filmed this dance scene below and I'm an 80s girls when it comes to music....that and Country and a bit of Broadway as I spent most my early years studying drama! Also the backlot at Paramount was always fun ;)
EPAC Ready for Alvin.... Atlantic......Maybe Round June 3rd "Something" ... SAL is King in the Atlantic. But Where SAL Goes... Tropical Waves Go Too!
Looking here first as it tells the tale.
Green moves into the Carib down the road.
EPAC red hot, candy cane red.
Alvin should form soon.
90% in 7 days EPAC - 50% in 2 days!
In the Atlantic however........all's quiet.
So NHC says nothing next 7 days.
Near that 7 day time frame...
...we might have something.
Whatever forms may form close in.
Note the convection shown in blue shades here is at an angle from SW to NE and that's because of the shear that's there in the Caribbean this time of year. The dotted light gray spots against the dark background are Saharan Dust aka SAL. Waves keep moving West with the dust. Remember that, they move West with SAL propelled West by the same steering currents that take the Saharan Dust to our side of the world. Where that takes them says much about early steering currents ...should something get into a sweet spot in the Caribbean closer to the Yucatan.
Note the stalled out frontal boundary across Florida.
This is for June 2nd.
Those can be a recipe for tropical formation.
Especially as the water there is warmer than your tub!
A lot of rain in the South over the next 7 days.
Especially in the later time frame.
I'd say the time frame of June 3rd is interesting.
Saharan Dust and the Waves - EPAC Signs Alvin is Forming This Week
NHC says we are good for the next week.
One reason why is Saharan Dust AKA SAL
Red = SAL
dark spots in the red.... tropical waves.
one coming into the Islands now...
...next wave further back.
The white areas way down low are waves.
Otherwise SAL owns the Atlantic!
The problem with SAL is it doesn't just keep the lid down low on development, but for those with breathing problems it can really make life difficult. Those with asthma and other similar diseases for sure have to pay attention, as well as the many who have some respiratory problems post Covid... be aware the Red Saharan Dust is on the way. On the plus side, if you like colorful sunsets in Miami and the Caribbean....this is your time to take photos and enjoy the tropical color. SAL represses development, inhibits it but it doesn't totally forbid it. More so the waves that are strong enough to run with SAL and not get squashed are often the ones that end up biting us badly in the you know what .....when they find a place where they can gain some traction and ventilate... breathe better. Also there is always low pressure possibilities at the tail end of a front close in........
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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