CSU Forecast Update - Current Discussion on Possible BOC/Gulf June System... Analog Years ....Do You Remember 1996? I do...

I put this up on Insta earlier.

Models still showing increasing moisture

Possible low pressure.

Maybe a BOC system.

Either way a rainmaker. 

Let's start with the EURO

It shows increased convection.

A quasi little wanna be area in the EPAC

Moisture to the North

Reinforcing moisture behind it.

Never shows that much to talk about

But there's always something to talk about...

...when it comes to the GFS

GFS looks promising on 6/17

Bit of a center...color means winds.

Gets up in the BOC 

Still looks the same.

Weak here on landfall.

Different filter on windy.com 

Not a lot of rain actually...

Again it's far out ...

..over a week away.

Until something changes, the Atlantic Basin is not friendly nor interested in tropical formation. That's good as it gives you lots of time to get your act together before you are in the Cone and you're in the panic zone.  Panic mode is never really a good place to be before a hurricane as there's so much that NEEDS to be done.  

Meanwhile the EPAC has the energy.

But, that said.... it oozes up into Carib and BOC.

So stay tuned.

I'm saying "there's a chance" basically.

Regarding the CSU Updated Forecast.

Personally I'm not a big fan of saying

19 Named Storms

9 Hurricanes

4 Majors

Because it's not that simple.

You can have 19 Named storms and many of them are weak and out at sea, only a nuisance for shipping lane forecasts. Most of the 9 hurricanes can be "fish storms" dancing and swirling out in the Atlantic even missing Bermuda. Or they can be weak, wobbly fighting shear not properly aligned systems driving meteorologists out of their minds. And, a few can be lean, mean, fighting machines like Andrew that sliced through the tip of South Florida like a buzz saw barely losing a drop of intensity over land as it continued on towards the Berry Islands off the coast of Louisiana where it made it's 2nd big landfall. 

Until we are knee deep into the 2025 Hurricane Season and we are sure what the steering currents will be and how well developed the named storms are and how strong the Bermuda High really is and where exactly it sets up we are in the realm of a forecast and nothing more. Do we have continued frontal boundaries traveling from West to East or do a few dip down or do they simply go poof and there's a huge high pressure that builds in over the Southeast? Why you ask do I mention that? It's common for low pressure during the hurricane season to form to the South of a huge High Pressure system that has dropped anchor. Then we look to where the shear is......    

It's complicated.

What I do like to pay attention to in the CSU report is Analog Years. 

Numbers are good and obviously the more hurricanes there are, the more of a chance some can make landfall somewhere in the Islands or on the US Mainland. But, again and again it only takes one. A season can start slow as it did in 1992 when the heat in Miami was a visceral thing that cut through the town and it was all anyone talked about. Old timers said it meant a hurricane. Other old timers said the rare 3 crops of mangoes meant a hurricane was coming. Everyone has a wise old saying when it's early August and the heat has been unrelenting and there hasn't even been a Tropical Storm yet. The high was set up and in place and still all was quiet on the tropical front.

I use 1992 as an example, not because it is an analog year but because it's the best example I can give you of how fickle a hurricane season can be and each hurricane season has it's own rhyme and reason. A quite June doesn't mean a quiet August or a free pass to ignore hurricane season.

1996

1999

2008

2011

2021

Note that 2017 has been removed from the list.

I know a choir of happy angels are singing in the heavens.

1996, 1999 and 2008 were difficult years.

All years are difficult if you were hit by a Cane.

1996 and 1999 below.

Busy years with an emphasis West of 60 Degrees W.

Not to raise a panic flag....

...but to show similarities.

A series of Hurricanes impacted Carolinas.

Bahamas busy.

North Carolina very busy.

2008 below.

Again emphasis West of 60 degrees W.

Less room to escape tho some do...

Again Bahamas to NC

A splatter of systems in the Gulf.

Criss crossing Cuba as well.

2011 and 2021 respectively.

Long trackers.

Many tracked further than others.

Nuff Said.

Time will tell.

Currently looking at a long quiet periods in June.

That'll change fast in July.

That I do believe.

2 points from the CSU report.

1. Higher than normal chance of storms West of 60 degrees.

(obviously the further West the less of an escape route)

2. The word "uncertainty" was used 13 times.

There are many conflicting signals.

Neutral seasons are riff with this issue.

That's it for today.

Yesterday I played at the Mall.

Getting lost in the flow of humanity.

Smelling perfumes at Sephora.

Bought it. Reminds if me of Miami.

Love Miami but love the Carolinas too!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Insta definitely whatever 

Bluesky whenever there's a named storm.

All's Quiet in the Atlantic - EPAC Won't Stop........

 

One model shows a storm making landfall.

Where does that moisture go?

IF it does - does it slide into BOC perhaps?

Another model shows it sailing........

......out to sea.
Like Star Ship Enterprise!

Note both models show HUGE HIGH

Every model shows HUGE HIGH actually.

Honestly Atlantic Closed for Business.

This week anyway.

Still watching BOC.

If it happens anywhere....

...it could happen there.

Even the GFS can't get up a fantasy cane.

it's kind of that simple.

Yet connection bubbles in the EPAC

Like a conga line.

As for me....

I'm going shopping.

Not obsessing today on the tropics.

But...you should shop for storm supplies.

Hurricane storm not BobbiStorm

Maybe add some waterproof make up....

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather if I can find some

Elsewhere whatever

Does the next storm landfall in EPAC?
Or go sailing away??

 

Thru the Windmills of My Mind on June Too Soon Morning. Barbara & Cosme in EPAC. CAD in NC (God Bless) Thoughts on the Ten Day for Tropical Dreams.

 

EPAC busy.

Barbara still spinning..........

Shear still there.

Waves don't care!

When generations collide in my mind. I leave TWC on mute with closed captions on in the background. Like a noisy puppy you like but were able to mute because it's whining for attention or growling at a lizard climbing up your bedroom wall. Note that lizard example only works well for people in South Florida. I mean I'm busy cleaning, thinking on what to write in the blog and watching news on an App on my phone .......but still The Weather Channel goes on quietly like some screensaver background to my daily life albeit on mute.

God Bless the rewind feature so I was able to "wait stop he's doing the Tropical Update" and wait for it to finish and then rewind and listen. Okay, not saying anything new. There's shear there....yeah always there in June. There's Saharan Dust.....yeah always there in June. There's waves (not always there this early in June) battling along trying to make it to the beautiful coast of South America. More on that tomorrow.

Writers always have various discussions in their head as if everything is an opportunity for a scene in a story or screenplay. Note........never date or talk to screenwriters or you'll be sorry. Don't say I didn't warn ya....

For some of us....

..we lived for the Tropical Update.

Mike actually grabbed it as his X handle!

So smart, he really is so smart.

A good friend.

Born in 2004!

So am I! 

Well the blog anyway.

What a year 2004 was...

Speaking of years........

Analog years from April CSU report.

There's always tomorrow.....

...tomorrow is an updated forecast!

Will talk on that tomorrow....

..see if Phil changes his analog years.

Anyway what am I supposed to say today that hasn't been said everywhere online and on air somewhere?

This 5 day panel tells the short term story.

The High holds tight across Florida....

...and across most of the Gulf.

The 7 day forecast for rain is above. Keeping this simple. This really tells it all but is ripe with a bit of innuendo and a possible plot twist! First note the front off the coast of the Carolinas. This has been a pattern all May and now into June. I have a cool like morning due to some lingering cloud cover and CAD (Google it) that'll last for a while making me smile. Very poetic today. Yes, always watch tailends of frontal boundaries and eventually one will get a name. When patterns persist they create trouble when the timing is perfect. Everything in life is timing. I'm philosphic this morning. There's a blob over Texas into Oklahoma that's hovered there providing chasers endless opportunities to chase and get that picture frozen in time and then one day they will show their grandchildren. They will show their grandchildren as grandchildren think it's amusing and their kids are sick of hearing about it.  Florida has the Rainy Season, this is why your hotel room was a cheap deal, enjoy it as you'll have opportunities for sun between storms.

Then............way down Center Stage .....

...you have a hint of purple and fushsia down near Mexico.

What could that be?

GFS shows an attempt at a storm.

BOC in line with CLIMO

Could happen.

There's an abundance of moisture...

...around the CAG.

CAG rules in June.

Places chasers go that are desperate.

10 days out it's always riff with possibilities.

For those who believe in Santa......

.... or the Easter Bunny.

Know there's always a system 10 days away.

Hey, people read blogs to see what might be.

Once you've seen a hurricane up close.......

....you want to know it all.

Anything and everything.

Listen you can ask me about 10 days out.

I can say yes, no and maybe.

But signs point to something happening.

Yellow Circle?

Orange?

Red?

A named system?

Maybe an Invest....

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Leaving ya with a sad, boring, beautiful song.

Bubbles in Champagne ....

...bubble endlessly

like waves roll off of Africa.

June is boring but beautiful.

This song is beautiful.......

...when singing it with my daughter

As we drive across the Julia Tutle to Miami Beach.

Kind of like this....back in 2020.

Good video...

That was my home.

Our home.

My life.

My world.

And when you see it out there ahead of you....

...we smile and know we are home.

And.......if you are still here.

I know who you are ;)

Center of this pic ...

..center of "the Beach"

Is where I rode out Andrew.

Champagne Problems indeed!

Thanks for traveling through the.....

...windmills of my mind.

Isn't this great?

Isn't this grand?

I'm doing songs and lyrics.

Logical after last night.

In the dead of June...

..when the tropics are dead.

But soon they will wake up.

Enjoy the music.

I could have written a novel today...

But I wrote this blog ;)

Hurricane Barbara in Eastern Pacific & TS Cosme. EPAC Gets Great Names. Atlantic Quiet. Use the Quiet Time Wisely!

Barbara is a Hurricane!

An Eastern Pacfic Hurricane.

Relax..........

.....down below the wide view!!

So let's talk a bit and I do mean a bit as it's very simple to see what the story is in the tropics today. Hurricane Barbara and her pal Tropical Storm Cosme are in the Eastern Pacific. This is normal as the EPAC Season begins before the Atlantic does and you can usually count a week to ten days from the activity there until things begin to show promise in our side of the basin. The promise is there will be tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin and this is the time when it is usually slow and that allows you time to properly prepare for times when you are in the Cone or worried on projections that show you may be in the cross hairs.

Note there is an increase in moisture (yellow/orange colors) in the Caribbean and nearing the Caribbean from westbound Tropical Waves. A strong complex came off recently and it's still further East closer to Africa. 

Isn't it interesting if you connected the Barbara and Cosme and drew a line through the Gulf the line would link up perfectly with the yellow/orange area off the Carolinas that continues on that angle out into the North Atlantic?

Truthfully when you see this linkage between basins setting up we are getting closer to go time in the Atlantic. 

I know it's like watching paint dry on June 10th most years. Again, Mother Nature is giving you a chance to get ahead of the game and prepare for Hurricane Season.

Not much more I can or will say. Listening to people on YouTube talk on the tropics in the Atlantic Basin is like the great search for something to say. Time moves fast in 2025 you blink and there's a yellow circle somewhere catching your attention in the Atlantic. 

Have a wonderful Monday and an awesome week! Be back tomorrow, with more tropical thoughts and a little bit of hurricane history.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X where it's mostly weather.

Elsewhere online.......whatever.

Beautiful imagery and lyrical beauty.

EPAC Could Have Barbara and Cosme Soon......... ATL Quiet Now...... Could BOC Host 1st ATL Storm? GFS Showing that Tonight... Inline with Climo So Maybe. Mid June Things May Get Busier!

 

The race for the name Barbara goes on in EPAC

1 system at 90%

Another red circle is at 80%

Barbara and Cosme next two names.

In the Atlantic nothing is going on.

Okay, that's not true.

Saharan Dust is pulsing up and down.

Traveling westbound.

A huge High owns the Atlantic.

Not much moisture.

A few waves wobbling West.

Wave train suppressed.

Staying low.

There is still talk on the MJO that is a feature that moves across the planet, through the atmosphere and often juices up the area where it's temporarily residing. It's in the EPAC currently, set to move into the Caribbean/BOC and then moves slowly East. When this happens in September it's "watch out...all hands on deck" but when it happens in "June Too Soon" many insist nothing will happen. We may have Barbara and Cosme this week in the EPAC, so "nothing" may be more a wish than a fact. 

Time will tell. It's June. Every June we watch, we wait and people get agitated online in the weather world and this year is no different. Infact, I began this blog back in June of 2004 when everyone on a message board was fighting and the owner of the message board kept threatening to shut it down. That said, the message board is still there (Canetalk on www.hurricanecity.com) and I am here too. Everyone insisted nothing was going to happen. 2004 happened, was busy and oh what a time it was......

Something could form in a week to ten days as moisture makes it's way into the BOC, but while we do have fronts on the move they are currently moving West to East and not dipping all that much. When they do dip they die and linger in warm water and the Gulf water temperature now especially close in is hotter than I want to talk about. So stay tuned. 

Til then..............Sunday is a good time to take advantage of any sales you see on products from first aid supplies to snacks for Hurricane Supplies. Now that eggs are affordable again, spend a little on hurricane supplies as I'm fairly sure many of us along the Hurricane Coast will definitely need them this year!

GFS has been in line with CLIMO 

This could happen for a number or reasons.

Far off, far out but it's a start.

Often the Hurricane Season starts here.

It started by the Yucatan..

note there's more blue (moisture)

back where it came from.

IF it happens ...IF

Good video I happened to run into on YouTube. A simple run down of what you need to know if you live in or recently moved to Hurricane Country. Note when I say that I don't mean a condo on the ocean, but anywhere that you can be impacted by a hurricane. Take Valdosta a city in Georgia not on the coast but it was impacted the last two years by hurricanes that moved fast inland. Infact, while the hurricane was about to make landfall down in Florida much of the weather raced out ahead of it and was lashing Valdosta with seriously crazy winds. I'm keeping this short tonight, but I have spoken in past blogs about how Valdosta and Tallahassee were getting lashed by violent weather and yet the hurricane had still not made official landfall in Florida far to the South. About as short a video I can think of where someone put together the basics, calmly in an organized and helpful way! 

So think on what she said.

And go shopping!

Or have a wonderful Sunday.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

NHC SAYS NADA in ATLANTIC BUT 2 RED HOT CIRCLES Compete in EPAC for Name Barbara. 2020s Keep ON 2020ing. Keep Preparing for Hurricane Season

 

Zoom Earth site above - love it!

EPAC has 2 areas trying to be Barbara.

Off the OBX is the remnants of our Low.

X Yellow area...non tropical low

Caribbean is a go for cruising.

NHC says nothing in the next 7 days.

The reason is shown below.

Windy.com filter shows SAL.

Dark colors show the extent of the SAL.

It just chokes off any moisture.

There's 2 pulses here shown.

Old one up near FL 

Next one down in ITCZ

Shuts down MDR

So what is left in Atlantic Basin?

The GFS that always tries hard to deliver.

Shows some moisture oozing up towards Yuke.

As I have said endlessly ....this region is one cohesive region with the illusion of separation because of the land borders of Mexico and Central America. Moisture oozes across the thinnest region and gets into the Bay of Campeche and tends to try to swirl up into some early BOC weak, named system. An image from the MIMIC shows this and in motion you'd see everything is being propelled West due to a very strong High Pressure area to the North of the Saharan Dust shown above. But you get the idea, how connected moisture is as it oozes up across and moves West from the moist EPAC below. And, that's the way June goes and it's why the EPAC Hurricane Season begins in May as they have abundant moisture whereas the Atlantic does not. And, lastly when there is a frontal boundary some of that moisture shuts off towards Florida feeding the rainy season there.      That's why we always watch dying frontal boundaries over warm water as they are one of the most common ways to get anything close in developing in June.

GFS not always ready for prime time.

But it shows us many things we need to see.

The image above is logical as per CLIMO

CLIMO shows us what normally happens in June.

As the GFS is more aligned with CLIMO....

...it's possible. 

Could happen.

Time will tell.

I'm not going to say "stop obsessing" because if you are reading my blog in June you are not going to ever stop obsessing and you probably have been badly burned in the past when the NHC page said "nothing for 7 days" and you ended up getting a tropical system rearrange your world and you will never forget and will continue to obsess always. I get that. Never stop obsessing on tropical weather if that's your thing.

And, in truth what we see now often relates to down the road when everyone should obsess.

1. Often Hurricane tracks in 3 to 4 weeks follow where Saharan Dust has gone before. 

2. Patterns set up and a low down near SFL & the Bahamas riding up along the coast may repeat. It may repeat at a time that the low will develop and get a name. Happens often in June into July. So when we see how strong this no name low was we keep at eye on any other lows that try and form.

3. If there's a way the BOC can get an early system to form it'll take it. Infamous for early weak storms. I used to call them sacrificial systems that once done get the season rolling.

4. People keep asking me why so many tornadoes this year and I'll answer is because there are late season fronts aligning with warm moisture from the Gulf and non tropical lows dancing along the coast of the Carolinas from a storm system that didn't quite make the tropical grade but brought flash floods and tornado warnings. Also this is Twister time be it out over Oklahoma or in Dixie Alley and they are at prime while we wait for the Saharan Dust pulses to stop pulsing and for the waters in the Main Development Region aka MDR to heat up. 

5. Just because it's "quiet" doesn't mean nothing is going to happen.

So keep watching. Often we go from "nothing for 7 days" and then on the 3rd day we get a "yellow circle with 10%" especially close in and especially in seasons with a parade of late season weak frontal boundaries and when moisture from the EPAC surges into the SW Caribbean mixing it up with what's left of a westbound wave that somehow survived the trip across the Atlantic with SAL. 

Have an awesome weekend.

I want to do something. 

What? I'm not sure. As normal .....a part of me wants to do one thing and the other part wants to do the other. Will see how my mood is and what the actual weather is like on Sunday as it's hard in this part of the Carolinas to nail down a 2 day forecast. 

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever

Miami girls love Gloria... 

...always and forever

Ps I'm not really Cuban but....

..I grew up in Little Havana.

My head does Spanglish

My words are English, 

pero my cadence is Spanish.

My grammar is more Spanish

Mas Espanol in my head here.

Weird but like you know.....

...if you know.

A linguist went crazy once ...

..playing with my brain.

I know I'm in a Key West state of mind....

...in the Carolinas this week.

Was in KW when she did a pop up show...

...in the middle of Duval Street.

1 2 3 4  by 5th day maybe something.

But something doesn't mean there's a name.

;)

Barbara Forming in EPAC? Non Tropical Low Over My House in Carolina. Rainy Day & a Rainy Night!! Atlantic Quiet For Now...

 

The EPAC is popping!! 80% Red!

Barbara looks to be forming soon!!

Oh and Barbara has a friend.........

30% chances on yellow circle.

Maybe it's just a fan... 

Follower? Stalker?

Hopes to dance with Barbara?

Gee the Atlantic seems so boring today.

There's a Low over my house literally!

A No Name Low........of course.

The old yellow area off Florida.........

....has run amok & is raining over the Carolinas.

Never formed but never was expected to...

...but is a rainmaker in a chaotic set up.

Things are swirling around in all directions.

But do have to tell you.........

...........it feels super duper humid here in NC.

Miami like humid.

Luckily a cold front is behind it!

Don't hate me! I'm not a summer person!

Speaking of cold fronts. 

This Pattern goes on & on.

EURO shows us a huge high ....

NW edge carved out with multiple frontal passages.

Barbara in the EPAC

Probably absorbs the little yellow area..

So in closing.

The High Pressure in the Atlantic for now owns it!

Give it a week or ten days... 

Action in the EPAC means count a week at least.

Not to say something couldn't pop up fast close in.

Small ... maybe a TD somewhere.

But not expecting company for dinner !!

Also a lot of discussion online....

MJO coming like the cavalry!!

Or maybe not......

Forecasts for MJO are just a forecast.

A week MJO in Carib could get us a TD

Some tropical action.

There's also discussion on everything... 

because nothing is really happening in ATL.

Have a good night.

Enjoy the rain in Carolinas.

Watch out for flooding advisories.

I do think that this is a season that will see hurricanes slide up the Eastern Seaboard close in and clipping certain areas that stick out such as Palm Beach, OBX, Long Island to name a few or at least feeling the surf and the wind. The Bahamas are in the cross hairs it seems by many who forecast areas that may feel a hurricane.... despite using totally different parameters most have Florida Coastline up to Mid Atlantic in play this year. I wouldn't bet on a La Nina nor an El Nino just yet. And, if anything develops it'll do so not underneath the huge High and probably favor action in the short and medium term in Carib into the Gulf. As always I remind you this is one region in ways if you look from the EPAC to the Gulf.... so use this time wisely and prepare for hurricane season.

Above GFS for Barbara and company.

It's the juicy part of the tropics

Further from the influence of the Highs.

As always the tail of any front bears watching.

Chow for now

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere no promises :)

It's a rainy night tonight.

I could sit up watching movies.

Sweet Home Alabama

and

Smokey and the Bandit!